Home Main Forums General Discussion A Second Silent Footstep Has Fallen

  • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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    A Second Silent Footstep Has Fallen

    Sometimes, the most important news never even gets mentioned anywhere at all. It just passes by without notice. Such an event has happened twice now regarding research about atmospheric greenhouse effects and resulting climate, misnamed global warming.

    The two papers probably got zero real notice because they don’t make outrageous statements about how this is going to end the Earth. No doomsday predictions of the sixth or tenth or whatever mass extinction. They just tell the truth. The Earth has been here before and it got through it just fine, thank you. Humans, on the other hand, may not like how things are going to go in the near future but I assure you they will survive.

    The first paper outlined a study of the carbon-dioxide levels in the atmosphere and resulting ocean temperatures during the early Eocene Epoch climatic optimum approximately 50 to 52 million years ago. This period in Earth history had the highest global temperatures in the past 65 million years or so. The paper (Jagniecki, E.A., Lowenstein, T.K., Jenkins, D.M., and Demicco, R.V., 2015, Eocene atmospheric CO2 from the nahcolite proxy: Geology, v. 43, p. 1075–1078, doi: 10 .1130 /G36886 .1) was based on reconstruction of a mineral (nahcolite) which can form in a group of three minerals called the nahcolite-trona-natron system. Each of these form under different conditions of temperature and carbon-dioxide concentration in water which can be duplicated in the laboratory.

    To make a long story short, the paper discovered that the atmospheric carbon-dioxide level could be anywhere from approximately 680 ppm to around 1150 ppm. Previous studies of this era suggested levels from about 1150 ppm up to 1820 ppm, so this paper effectively reduced the concentration level of carbon-dioxide by one half to one third that previously thought.

    It is the second article that may have a couple of real bombshells attached to it. (Alexander P. Wolfe, Alberto V. Reyes, Dana L. Royer, et.al.,2017, Middle Eocene CO2 and climate reconstructed from the sediment fill of a subarctic kimberlite maar: Geology, v. 45, p. 619-622, doi:10.1130/G39002.1) This study is also about the Eocene, specifically the middle Eocene. It uses core samples from a peat and kimberlite deposit (Exploration drill core BHP 99-01, Giraffe kimberlite site) located about 300 km northeast of Yellowknife Canada in Slave Province, Northwest Territories. This study used plant fossils and best estimate measurements of cell biology to determine that the most probable carbon dioxide concentration was between 378–778 ppm at 1 sigma confidence. (Mean is 490 ppm.) However, this experiment also allowed for reconstruction of estimated climate conditions, the Mean Average Temperature (MAT), the Coldest Month Mean Temperature (CMMT), the Warmest Month Mean Temperature (WMMT) and the Mean Average Precipitation (MAP). So, after all the hoopla, the research determined that at a mean reconstructed CO2(atm) of 490 ppm, the MAT then was at least 12.5 degrees (Centigrade) higher than today, the CMMT at least 27 degrees warmer, the WMMT was about 10 degrees warmer and the mean average precipitation was 3 to 5 times as high. The nearest location having the same or nearly the same conditions today is located 5300 km southeast of Nashville.

    Both studies determined that permanent glaciation does not form with atmospheric CO2 levels higher than approximately 430 ppm in northern latitudes and only slightly higher in southern latitudes. One unique outcome from the second paper was the realization that multiple forced concentration model projections for these conditions produced results approximately one third as great as the evidence suggests. In other words, the models that critics of global warming claim are inaccurate, are in fact inaccurate. They consistently failed to reproduce these conditions at those levels of CO2, and even underestimated the temperature changes with CO2 levels forced to two and one-half times the experimentally determined values found in that study (1130 ppm forced model vs. 490 ppm determined in the study). This means that most projections need further analysis. Something is clearly wrong, and as bad as they suggested things would get, they missed high latitude changes by over 250 percent.

    Now for the bad news.

    World average CO2 concentration is somewhere between 408 and 412 ppm. A fit to decadal averages of the Mauna Loa data suggests a mild exponential growth for the past 7 decades (or longer) where the current yearly increase is about 4.2 or so ppm. Work it out. Assume that the studies underestimate the CO2 levels slightly. We will get a climate similar to 3000 miles southeast of Nashville in Yellowknife, Canada at 500 ppm. There will also be a boatload of new fresh water in the oceans from sub-arctic North America and Asia, as well as the Greenland ice-sheet. Southern conditions may still allow for moderate glaciation on eastern Antarctica.

    That’s less than 25 years. Perhaps far less than 25 years.

    That is, unless people decide that lifestyles should change to stop it. This entire problem is energy used to drive American (primarily) lifestyles till a few years ago.

    And that isn’t going to happen. You’ll see why in my next installment.

    mmonk, shanti, Blackspade and 56 othersEleanors38, ThomPaine, 99thMonkey, Pastiche, beemerphill, VagrantPeters, Xyzse, Passionate Progressive, Deadpool, madfloridian, travelerxxx, Phlem, hay rick, Fuddnik, Pacco Fransisco, Lorien, Cassiopeia, TIME TO PANIC, PuffGranny, Hawkowl, Ohio Barbarian, Stockholmer, iggy, Salemcourt, Ferd Berfel, h-32, duckpin, Two way street, daleanime, 99Forever, N2Doc, Duppers, tokenlib, Enthusiast, Odd John, bemildred, Flying Squirrel, Iwalani88, twenty, OCMI, wilsonbooks, NV Wino, JEB, glinda, A little weird, djean111, Land of Enchantment, dreamnightwind, LiberalElite, WillyT, area woman, whispers, jwirr, BillZBubb, Marym625, Koko like this
    boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx

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    • MistaP (5668 posts)
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      http://www.salon.com/2016/11/09/the-hillary-clinton-campaign-intentionally-created-donald-trump-with-its-pied-piper-strategy/ (Third Way = Bell Curve)
      • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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        2. Some day the time will come when

        people realize that even their water has a carbon price tag attached.

        Much less their stoopid electronic gizmos and cars and such….

        boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
        • sadoldgirl (1605 posts)
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          5. And that does not even mention the heavy pollution

          of water due to fracking, pesticides, and dumping of poisoness

          minerals and chemicals. Flint is just one little place, which managed to

          make the news for a short time.

          • MistaP (5668 posts)
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            7. clearly all caused by the sinister machinations of Big Transit

            http://www.salon.com/2016/11/09/the-hillary-clinton-campaign-intentionally-created-donald-trump-with-its-pied-piper-strategy/ (Third Way = Bell Curve)
      • Average Gazoo (1041 posts)
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        16. Those guys have a lot to be worried about these days.

        Capitalism, not regulators or environmentalists, is about to sunset the fossil fuel-based vehicle.

        https://shift.newco.co/this-is-how-big-oil-will-die-38b843bd4fe0

         

      • Eleanors38 (168 posts)
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        71. What chaps me is when those in the metal, A.C.'d bubble idle their engines…

        For 5, 10, 15, 20 or more minutes right beside your outdoor seating at a biergarten, while they twitter/twatter away.  Some become incensed when you complain of the even higher neat (today we will hit 100+ for the 32nd time this summer).  I realize these sweet smelling rather young folks don’t care about pollution, CO2 levels, and waste, but it is the indifference they have for anyone that has to directly experience their convection oven.

    • Marym625 (23443 posts)
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      3. On The Daily Radical!

      Thank you!!

      Oi245KQ-1 "Once the decision was made to go into Iraq as an invader and occupier,  it’s like our nation lost its conscience. And it has not yet gotten that conscience back." Madfloridian  
    • BillZBubb (2366 posts)
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      4. Worse yet, this doesn't account for the methane that will be released.

      As the tundra melts, methane levels will soar.

      DemExit! Don't give the Democrats a dime. Don't identify as a Democrat. Drop Democratic identification below 20%. Only then will they support true progressive policy. Until then, corporate money rules.
      • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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        6. So far I haven't seen any reliable research on

        geological time scale methane levels.

        That may be a consideration when reading these two papers, for instance. We don’t have a clue what the methane level was, and that could account for the reduced levels of CO2.

        boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
      • The Crone (3157 posts)
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        11. But the Calif legislature, in its great wisdom,

        Is going to tackle Global Climate Change by having farmers insert charcoal filters up cow’s butts or something, to end the cow methane production end of the equation. (Which the legislation actually won’t end – it will just mean that small time dairy farms will either leave the state or go belly up, while the larger operations will continue to do as bigger firms always do – payoff the regulators to look the other way. So organic milk and non-bovine hormone milk will have to be purchased at an increased price from out of state dairies for those of us stoopid enough to stay in California.)

        After they do that, I imagine my flatulent dog will be next on the state’s hit list.

        And meanwhile, since the legislators have no will at all to tackle fracking, we will probably lose our drinking water as well.

        "Let us not seek the Republican answer nor the Democratic answer but the right answer." John F. Kennedy   America is the only country that has real   lemons in its furniture polish, and artificial lemon flavoring  in its lemonade!
        • duckpin (3547 posts)
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          13. 1/3 of all methane loosed into the atmosphere from the USA comes from cattle

          What California is doing may or may not be effective but at least the problem has been recognized.

          Methane is dozens of times more effective as a greenhouse gas than CO2

          "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
          • The Crone (3157 posts)
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            28. Oh BS. There is methane leaking into the atmosphere from many sources

            The tightly controlled scientists do not look into. Some of it seeps into the environment from places like Shoreline Amphitheater, in Mt View Calif.

            And then there are all the areas of the ocean that burp up methane. None of which are bothered with by these “scientists” doing these reports.

            "Let us not seek the Republican answer nor the Democratic answer but the right answer." John F. Kennedy   America is the only country that has real   lemons in its furniture polish, and artificial lemon flavoring  in its lemonade!
            • duckpin (3547 posts)
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              30. "Methane is 28 to 34 times more potent a greenhouse gas than CO2. In the

              United States over 1/3 of methane comes from livestock mainly through gut fermentation and manure.” This is from research from Penn State but the methodology is backed up the the EPA, New Zealand studies, UN studies, and reported in scientific journals. It’s easier accessible via a google search.

              "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
              • The Crone (3157 posts)
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                31. So say the same species of scientists that tell us

                GM crops are nutritionally equivalent to conventional crops.

                That pesticides like RoundUp only affect weeds.

                Who testify before august bodies of legislators that products like MTBE are so safe that “my children would be allowed to brush their teeth with it.”

                BTW if you put my spouse me and my dog in a confined space, we could produce at least half as  much methane as any calf or young cow weighting what the three of us weigh.

                Anyway when you can refer me to an actual document that shows they have looked into the methane released from underground areas in the continental USA, I will be willing to debate the “facts” as you represent them further. But most of the facts regarding methane are about Agenda 21.

                 

                "Let us not seek the Republican answer nor the Democratic answer but the right answer." John F. Kennedy   America is the only country that has real   lemons in its furniture polish, and artificial lemon flavoring  in its lemonade!
                • RufusTFirefly (1513 posts)
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                  33. There's a difference. Your examples are pro-growth cash cows (!!)

                  Warning about the dangerous increase of methane in the atmosphere is not.

                • duckpin (3547 posts)
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                  34. These are peer reviewed studies and not my opinion.

                  "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
                  • The Crone (3157 posts)
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                    39. Peer reviewed means nothing.

                    A pair of scientists writes a paper that Monsanto wants published. It involves their “proof” that RoundUp is safe.

                    So Monsanto gets three or four  other scientists to read it. One of those two is an expert on latex, and knows nothing about the physiology of mammals, so what that scientist thinks or doesn’t think about the paper should not matter. But since in the “peer reviewed” world, all tht matters is tht the scientist who is doing the peer reviewing have X amount of status in the scientific world, that scientist’s opinion will be considered valid.

                    The second scientist is an expert on the dimensional needs and requirements of a flying dinosaur’s wings to achieve flight, and that is where their expertise ends. If a topic  is not actually related to flight characteristics and physical dimensions of   Pterodactyl, Pteranodon and other flying dinosaurs, this person doesn’t know anything about it. Yet again, because they have published X number of papers in  their own name, and have a Master’s or Doctorate degree, they too are considered knowledgeable enough to be part of the peer review process.

                    And so on through out the other remaining colleagues. It is a nonsensical situation, but how else would the American public have been forced to endure for decades such “safe” products like asbestos, cigarettes, MTBE etc?

                    "Let us not seek the Republican answer nor the Democratic answer but the right answer." John F. Kennedy   America is the only country that has real   lemons in its furniture polish, and artificial lemon flavoring  in its lemonade!
        • Eleanors38 (168 posts)
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          72. Ah, so you own a Lab?

          • The Crone (3157 posts)
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            75. No when the rock and roll venue was opened,

            There was concerned expressed by county officials that methane could leak. And perhaps there would be explosions. I have no idea if some measure was taken to mitigate the methane problem at Shoreline, but at least no one I know has been blown up by a methane leak there over the last decade. (It is hard to figure out which remark yours is in reference to, so please copy and paste the remark if my eyesight did not follow the “reply tree” properly.)

            "Let us not seek the Republican answer nor the Democratic answer but the right answer." John F. Kennedy   America is the only country that has real   lemons in its furniture polish, and artificial lemon flavoring  in its lemonade!
            • Eleanors38 (168 posts)
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              76. I was referencing "flatulent dogs," Labradors being the most notorious.

              Answer to your post #11.

    • HIP56948 (2455 posts)
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      8. "they missed high latitude changes by over 250 percent." The Right has insisted

      …that scientists have used scare tactics plus exaggerations to prove their points.

      The clearly ironic thing is the people gathering data actually under-estimated the coming storm…

      Oh Boy.  

      • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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        10. This can actually be the proverbial two edged sword though.

        Ignoring that they really underestimated the high latitude effects, the issue remains that they can’t replicate the data.

        That is a monumental hurdle in the near future for discussions. I’m pretty sure someone is going to make damn good and sure they point this out and it becomes mantra.

        boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
        • HIP56948 (2455 posts)
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          20. Quite true but I was looking forward to scaring my climate denier friends.

          • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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            23. By all means,

            scare away. But don’t be surprised when they don’t acknowledge the science.

            THAT is coming real soon now, the science behind denialism.

            boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
    • Land of Enchantment (7110 posts)
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      9. Kicked and rec'd.

      Very interesting….

           "Hope is the feathered thing that perches in your heart." ~ Emily Dickinson  
    • Enthusiast (8865 posts)
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      12. Kicked and Recommended!

      "The NSA’s capability at any time could be turned around on the American people, and no American would have any privacy left, such is the capability to monitor everything. There would be no place to hide."  Frank Church "When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." - Frederic Bastiat, 1848
    • Ferd Berfel (4514 posts)
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      14. "There will also be a boatload of new fresh water in the oceans …"

      Accelerated Methane release has been mentioned and discussed above,

      but I wonder;  what does all of this additional fresh water (generally  a bit lighter than sea water)  do to the Ocean convection layers, Gulf Stream for example and how will these changes play in to the mix

       

      Great post SFFH ! Looking forward to part 2

      …and you think you’re going to stop this simply by ‘pulling a lever’, in a booth, behind a curtain, every 2 years? - Know yourself. And if you need help with that, call the FBI. -  There is only ONE solution to this mess:  New Party !  
      • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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        17. Actually, the fresh water is slightly more dense than salt water,

        because of its temperature so it initially sinks as it mixes. That is what drives the Gulf Stream. Most talk that I’ve heard indicates that the stream may slow or disappear altogether before it makes it back up to Europe.

        From there it gets complicated. Europe would freeze without the stream, but the reason they lost the stream is increased average temperatures, so I would assume this is going to fall into the ‘depends’ category. This study indicates a very moderate temperate climate at high northern latitudes, so they may wind up in something like New Orleans in the summer.

        boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
        • Ferd Berfel (4514 posts)
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          22. Tx for teh correction

          I must have misinterpreted this:

          Water, pure   39.2oF (4oC)  1.000
          Water, sea         77oF             1.025

          http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/specific-gravity-liquids-d_336.html

          …and you think you’re going to stop this simply by ‘pulling a lever’, in a booth, behind a curtain, every 2 years? - Know yourself. And if you need help with that, call the FBI. -  There is only ONE solution to this mess:  New Party !  
          • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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            24. Remember, it mixes first.

            Or actually, some may just slide under. Regardless, the temperature difference is what drives the gulf stream. When that is removed, then it is actually relatively unknown what the hell is going to happen because it is a massive system all its own. The temp pump will happen every winter to sort of bump it along as it were. This study doesn’t stop winter freeze from the polar region, just loss of permanent ice overall.

            boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
    • duckpin (3547 posts)
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      15. The planetary emergency is bad and getting worse and no matter how far

      down this road humanity travels, the answer remains that we must struggle to recreate a balance with the earth before the earth’s systems equilibriate and create a new balance that is outside the parameters of what constitutes a safe operating space for us.

      The root cause is capitalism and its grow or die imperative; it’s now grow and die.

      "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
      • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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        18. Unfortunately,

        the entire mess is political in nature.

        So, that is going to be the next couple of installments on this.

        boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
        • duckpin (3547 posts)
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          19. It has to be: The series of crises are natural/social/historical in scope and

          a reductionist appeal to Malthusian “original sin” is not going to get at the heart of the problems so they can be solved.

          Good work! & thanks!

          "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
      • RufusTFirefly (1513 posts)
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        37. "The root cause is capitalism and its grow or die imperative"

        Totally agree. As Naomi Klein argues in “This Changes Everything,” a great deal of the reluctance to face the reality of climate change is that it forces the Right to acknowledge the fundamental flaws in some of its most sacred tenets, including growth and, to some extent, sovereignty.

        Those who detest the United Nations are loath to admit that effectively  addressing the climate crisis requires precisely the kind of international governance that institution embodies.

        • duckpin (3547 posts)
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          38. Yes, agreed. I can also recommend Facing the Anthropocene by Ian Angus

          for a more political economic and basic science look into the series of crises under the heading climate change. Both books are excellent and both come to the same conclusions by each author gets there using – at times – different agreed upon data. Angus goes more deeply into the nine systemic crises that make up our situation.

          Malm’s book, Fossil Capitalism, is also very important and comes in 3rd. To me, Klein & Angus are tied for first.

          It will take international cooperation and a willingness to admit failure of the present system. Merkel saw Fukushima unfold, still unfolding, and immediately took Germany out  of the nuke loop. We need that kind of decisiveness in the fossil fuel arena to save civilization.

          "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
          • RufusTFirefly (1513 posts)
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            42. Good recommendations! Thanks dp! n/t

            • duckpin (3547 posts)
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              43. You're welcome Mr Firefly. I learned a lot from the Angus book and

              it’s well written in the sense it’s easily understandable and well organized.

              "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
              • RufusTFirefly (1513 posts)
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                46. Just checked my local lie-berry (which is usually very good)…

                … and, alas, they have neither. 

                I will put in a request for them and consider whether to shell out the bucks for my own copy of Angus at least.

                However, given that my current stack of to-be-read books is about the height of the Shot Tower, it may turn out that the library’s copy shows up at just the right time! 

                 

                • duckpin (3547 posts)
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                  48. OK – sounds like a plan

                  "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
    • TIME TO PANIC (548 posts)
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      21. K & R! n/t

      "We Tortured Some Folks" - Barack Obama
    • misanthroptimist (664 posts)
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      25. No one with any scientific literacy has ever claimed…

      …that AGW will “end the Earth.” The truth is that the sixth mass extinction is well underway. It is highly unlikely that civilization as we know it will exist in 100 years.

      Further, CO2 might be the most the important control knob of Earth’s climate over time, but it is not the only one. Simply comparing CO2 levels between eras removed by tens of millions of years is inadequate if one wants to get the full picture. Orbital variations, axial tilt, position of continents, and other factors all play a role.

      The fact that the Earth was warmer, cooler, wetter or dryer than today is of little relevance in assessing the dangers of the current warming. Not a one of those factors took place globally with a human population of over seven billion people reliant on industrial scale farming for its survival.

      The change in climate is (IMHO) almost a secondary factor. It is far more likely that weather instability will do in civilization than any other climatic factor.

      Finally, a single paper is hardly sufficient to overturn decades of research…unless it has been thoroughly reviewed and widely accepted. It’s fairly trivial to scan the journals and find a paper that will say almost anything one wants to hear. Post-publication review is the true litmus test for the robustness of a paper’s assertions.

      "We watched the tragedy unfold; We did as we were told; We bought and sold; It was the greatest show on Earth; But then it's over" -Roger Waters, Amused to Death
      • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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        27. Interesting.

        All of that is true, but only in minor amounts. No predictions are true. Think about it and you’ll see why. If it hasn’t happened, it can’t be true seems to fit the bill nicely. They’re just predictions based on best model runs.

        The one and only main greenhouse effect is blackbody re-radiation, period. NOTHING compares if the orbit is stable and not highly eccentric. The moon and Venus are two prime lessons on how this works.

        This is only two of thousands of papers I have selected. Unfortunately, they also happen to be two of the very best compendiums of all the other research (geological estimations), so your comment on just one paper is completely off base and not true at all. I don’t do non-peer reviewed science. The first paper has been cited more than 1300 times in less than two years, is that good enough for you?

        Neither paper makes any claims about weather. Only gross overall average climate ingredients, temp, and rainfall.

        While no paper claims the end of humanity (which is REALLY arguable if you actually read some) the way they are allowed to be presented by the press certainly makes that statement. And it is a driving force against doing anything about the problem. I’ll show why in the next couple of posts. Model prediction is voodoo science in it’s own way. It’s called Monte Carlo modelling, and I know all about it, considering I’ve used it for experiments I was involved in. These two papers show that there is a large problem with projection models at high latitudes FOR A FACT. That has a real valuable lesson attached and the community had better get its act together and that real soon now.

        You’re running out of time. You may already be too late. You have a real problem convincing a large fraction of the American public to adopt a totally different economic system and limited growth. They follow risk affect, and they aren’t going to change their spots on model predictions.

        boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
        • misanthroptimist (664 posts)
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          29. Important

          I have yet to see any scientific predictions about the effects of AGW. Computer models (and climatologists sometimes) make projections. Projections are a different (and difficult) beast in climatology.

          The reason projections are difficult is that many of the factors used to make those projections cannot be known for the future. For example, there is no way to know for sure what CO2 levels will be in 30 years. Politics, economics, and physics will all play a role in determining the CO2 emissions and the amount of that CO2 that stays in the atmosphere. Likewise, climate sensitivity isn’t known with perfect accuracy (if such accuracy is even possible in the real world). And it’s not just CO2 levels that can’t be known. Many other factors (for example, the sunspot cycle) aren’t predictable years in advance, except in a very generally way. So, the temperature at any given moment or range of moments in the future cannot be “predicted”. That doesn’t mean that intelligent estimates can’t be made, particularly when the projection is stated as a range of possible outcomes…which is almost always the case for climate projections. Thus far the models for global surface temperature and sea level rise have performed reasonably well.

          Calling climate modelling “voodoo science” is both grotesquely inaccurate and cartoonishly silly. As stated, climate modelling isn’t perfect, but it is reliable…and improvements are constantly being made as our understanding improves.

          It should also be noted that “the way they {climate papers} are allowed to be presented by the press” is a bit of a mind-boggling statement in a society with a free press. There is no way scientists can force the press to act responsibly, either legally or practically. Hell, the research scientists usually have little input into the press releases concerning their papers that are put out by their own university. So, your complaint is about the system, not the science.

          However, you probably are right about one thing: It probably is too late to salvage civilization. Years ago I figured that that would probably be the case, given human nature, and began preparing for the results. I can go independent with very little effort and with one day of hard work (with breaks and meals, of course). I can then watch the collapse on TV…for as long as that lasts… and listen to the rest courtesy of HAM operators.

          Good luck to you and yours. You have roughly 20 years to prepare. (FYI, figure about seven to ten years to get totally set up in a way that won’t attract attention.) So get started soon before prices go up too much. ;)

          "We watched the tragedy unfold; We did as we were told; We bought and sold; It was the greatest show on Earth; But then it's over" -Roger Waters, Amused to Death
          • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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            32. Let's see here

            “Calling climate modelling “voodoo science” is both grotesquely inaccurate and cartoonishly silly.”

            Really? Ever perform one? Like a big fat juicy one? These are some of the most sophisticated models ever developed, and there is a ton of evidence to the contrary of their predictions. I use the term voodoo to make a point. But that has to be assumed from the start, doesn’t it? If you want to deny that then don’t say this:

            “The reason projections are difficult is that many of the factors used to make those projections cannot be known for the future. For example, there is no way to know for sure what CO2 levels will be in 30 years. “

            That doesn’t even get to the heart of the problem, it’s just a mishmash of excuses, none of which are necessary. The models can’t reproduce KNOWN results using KNOWN inputs. That’s the problem these studies have placed on current modelling in a nutshell. And the denialists are going to have a field day with this because the IPCC and all those involved have failed to present just what the models can or cannot do. They just give out results. And at this point in time, they tell us one story, and the reality is that they’re AT LEAST 250 percent WRONG for high latitude effects at or near current concentrations. So the question remains: what to do to fix this?

            Is it a childish statement? No, just factual.

            Let me be very clear here. We scientists are as much to blame about the misinformation and confusion about the greenhouse effects to come as anyone. To some extant, we may even be more at fault than most, because we’re supposed to be smart enough to tell complete information in a manner that all can understand. And that brings up another denialist stronghold, the ivory tower comment.

            As far as prediction versus projection. In this instance they are one and the same. Synonyms. No physics theory is worth a shit if it has no predictive power. Look at it this way, I should always be able to tell you what was observed. Question is, what does it predict for other or different inputs? A prediction is a result based on projection of the theory.

            boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
            • misanthroptimist (664 posts)
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              35. So…

              …your answer is to just say stuff…and forget that “voodoo” was your term?

              I provided links that supported the accuracy of the models for both the surface temperature and sea level rise. Your answer is wild statements supported by nothing. Good luck with that.

              Heck, I didn’t even point out the major misunderstanding in your OP. :)

              "We watched the tragedy unfold; We did as we were told; We bought and sold; It was the greatest show on Earth; But then it's over" -Roger Waters, Amused to Death
              • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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                36. At this point, you have shown that you don't understand anything

                about what I wrote. You have placed your bias forward of the work. Let’s be real here. The models are notoriously imperfect. I have given you two outstanding sources of peer reviewed studies, of two separate methods of measurement, that gave the same result and makes the same statements. The models suck at certain ‘projections’ when they attempt to reconstruct KNOWN conditions.

                Period.

                The very term ‘Monte Carlo’ implicitly makes the resulting ‘prediction’ subject to being called ‘voodoo’ if the model can’t do it right.

                Period.

                Considering the implications, maybe it’s time we quit forming opinions based on social grouping pressure and started examining the facts, which seem to be telling me that my grandson is fucked.

                Because that’s what the real data suggests. Not some squirrel cage output machine, the fucking DATA tells me so.

                And don’t try bringing up the use of squirrel cage machine. I know what I’m talking about, do you?

                boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
    • Deadpool (9251 posts)
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      26. …

    • The Crone (3157 posts)
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      40. Goodness gracious – I imagine that Will Bill and the other bison killers

      Were actually doing the Native Americans a big favor when they brought to extinction the herds of bison that had been green housing the Western Plains back in the Eighteen hundreds, long before the primitive peoples had even heard the term “green housing of the atmosphere.”

      Back then, thirty to sixty million wild bison  offered up their methane, with most of these mature animals being larger than our current day dairy cows. At least  now I can relax about feeling bad that the Indians lost their way of life, because obviously, if these beasts had not been killed off, the methane would have done the Native people in quite soon.

      "Let us not seek the Republican answer nor the Democratic answer but the right answer." John F. Kennedy   America is the only country that has real   lemons in its furniture polish, and artificial lemon flavoring  in its lemonade!
      • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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        41. Nice.

        Not only that, the world population should rejoice at the development of fracking. Just think, we’re getting rid of all that pesky methane stuff. At a rate that’s just amazingly fast.

        Who knows what evil would occur should we just let it stay under there.

        boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
      • RufusTFirefly (1513 posts)
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        44. There are roughly 988.6 million cattle on the planet

        And guess what? Most of them aren’t eating grass. They’re being fed with grain.  Almost two-thirds of the world’s cattle can be found in India, Brazil and China. Huge swaths of South American rainforest (a carbon sink) are being destroyed in order to feed and house these methane emitters. Furthermore, it requires approximately 3/4 of a gallon of oil to produce a pound of beef.

        • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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          45. So that just means I need to eat more beef,

          and save the planet. Will do……

          boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
          • RufusTFirefly (1513 posts)
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            47. By Jove, you've got it, sffh!

            I never cease to be amazed at what quick studies some people are!

        • duckpin (3547 posts)
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          50. And, cattle did not evolve as grain eaters, they are grass eaters, so to be able

          to digest grain they need supplements and to avoid infections from overcrowding in feedlots, cattle are given massive doses of antibiotics.

          This misuse of antibiotics is creating drug resistant bacteria which negatively impacts human health and the health of animals because the antibiotics pollute the ground and waterways.

          "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
          • RufusTFirefly (1513 posts)
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            52. Oll korrect!

            And besides, there’s no other good use for all that grain (roughly seven pounds for each pound of beef) anyhow. At least none that I can think of!

            I love farmer-poet Wendell Berry’s quote about feedlots and monocrops (I’m paraphrasing):

            “They took one solution and turned it into two perfectly good problems.”

            • duckpin (3547 posts)
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              53. Wendell Berry is very often a perceptive observer and has insights

              that you usually don’t find elsewhere.

              Was it Berry who said, “Farming is growing peanuts; industrial agriculture is turning petroleum into peanut butter?”

              "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
              • RufusTFirefly (1513 posts)
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                54. Hah! Don't know, but it sure sounds like him!

                Thanks for that!

                • duckpin (3547 posts)
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                  55. You're welcome – it might be Berry, can't say for sure. I remember the

                  quote but forgot the author  :   (

                  "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
                  • RufusTFirefly (1513 posts)
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                    56. Turns out it was evolutionary biologist Richard Lewontin n/t

                    • duckpin (3547 posts)
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                      60. Lewontin, whose books I recommend especially the classic The Dialectical

                      Biologist that he wrote with Richard Levins, was a giant in his field and one of the advantages that he had and used to good purpose was that he used Marxian analysis and was able to see that connectedness of humanity with nature and the dangers the alienation posed. He also was strictly non-reductionist and that allowed him to allow for genetic noise which expresses itself in the phenotype apart from   environmental factors. An example, is that genetically identical fruit flies raised in a sterile environment eating the same thing as the other subjects vary in the number of sensory hairs on the head and the number on each side of the head. A minor thing for the fruit fly but a major theoretical finding that has to be accounted for.

                      Many thanks for discovering is was Lewontin;  I have learned a lot from him over the years.

                      The Dialectical Biologist was dedicated “To Frederick Engels who got it wrong a lot of the times but who got it right when it counted.”

                      "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
                      • RufusTFirefly (1513 posts)
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                        61. Fascinating background! Thanks!

                        I must confess I’d never heard of him.

                      • duckpin (3547 posts)
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                        62. That's the thing isn't it? Little time to educate one's self and gain immunity

                        from the misrepresentations and lies of the corporate media.

                        The Dialectical Biologist can be dense in places but he, along with Kamin, Rose and others, wrote articles and books aimed at an intelligent lay audience and these are a good place to start if this is not your field.

                        "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
                      • RufusTFirefly (1513 posts)
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                        63. I see that he and S. J. Gould came up with "spandrels."

                        Even though I was heretofore unaware of its origin, that’s a term I was familiar with (although I’m prone to confusing it with exaptations).

                      • duckpin (3547 posts)
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                        64. SJ Gould was one of the good guys. In his field, evolutionary biology, he

                        recognized that the man who had the greatest insight into human evolution in the 19th century by noting that humans alone evolved by our ability to create and use tools, was Frederick Engels. Now, the field is dominated by those who study gene/culture coevolution which is unique to humans and was given a start to “that old duffer Engels” as one scientist happily referred to him.

                        "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
        • The Crone (3157 posts)
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          65. And let's say we all quit eating beef tomorrow. And we quit

          Drinking milk, having yogurt or eating ice cream.

          What a paradise, right?

          Except in the following weeks and months, there would be a mass slaughter of these close to one billion animals.

          So the folks relying on the animal products of the almsot one billion cattle for food and clothing will be out of luck. of course, in terms of Global Climate Change, the more dead people, the less population, and goody goody two shoes, once dead, those folks won’t be emitting methane either.

          And I would disagree with the idea that many cattle are not eating grass. Have you been to India lately? My spouse was there recently and they still eat grass over there. Here too, as “grass fed” is a real selling point in both restaurants and at the meat counter. And the cows on many dairy farms in my locale exist on scrub land that no one wanted to use for much, except pear orchards.

          And guess what? When you have dairy farms on such scrub brush areas, you also are providing a lot of habitat for the sorts of critters the environmentalists love: the skink, the snakes, the skunks, the possums, rabbits, beaver, badgers, the cougars, the bobcats and the deer. Plus numerous bird species.

          What is occuring in these small dairy farms has nothing to do with the farm owners’ Global Climate Concerns but the fact that it is hard work to run one. The old timers are dying off, and their descendants sell off the properties to the vineyards people. And guess what? Once those pesty cows are gone, and the vineyards are in their place, there is ZERO habitat for any of the critters that made my county so wonderful. Gone in a few years will be most trees, most birds, and most of the critters.

          And it is becoming more arid and hotter each year in my county. Kill off the trees and the scrub brush, as the dairy farms and pear orchards make way for the new  vineyards, and  there is less oxygen being produced. Less shade, so now less moisture and hotter temps. Oh and our lake is dying off too, as the huge amounts of pesticides utilized in the vineyards has destroyed  the lake.

          BTW, in many hard scrabble areas of the world, the poor utilize the cattle, be they the cow or water buffalo for their fertilizer. So when the Global Climate Change folks get their way and the cattle are gone, not only will hamburgers, milkshakes, yogurt and cheese be extinct, so will the crops that the subsistence folks are able to grow things on by using cow paddies and buffalo dung.

           

          "Let us not seek the Republican answer nor the Democratic answer but the right answer." John F. Kennedy   America is the only country that has real   lemons in its furniture polish, and artificial lemon flavoring  in its lemonade!
          • RufusTFirefly (1513 posts)
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            66. Wow! You just took the ball and ran with it, didn't you?

            I stand corrected. Cattle aren’t having an appreciable effect on the climate. (What do those snooty peer-reviewed studies know? Your anecdotes are far more powerful than any data.)  They’re actually saving us from Armageddon. Who knew?

            • The Crone (3157 posts)
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              67. Okay, let's answer a simple question:

              Name one time in the past twenty years  that the government took an issue and shaped the “solution” into its liking, especially on the issue of the environment, and then the solution did not turn out to be worse than the original equation.

               

              "Let us not seek the Republican answer nor the Democratic answer but the right answer." John F. Kennedy   America is the only country that has real   lemons in its furniture polish, and artificial lemon flavoring  in its lemonade!
    • spud demon (955 posts)
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      49. The "Less than 25 years" part

      You’re saying that the CO2 concentration will reach the 500 ppm level within 25 years, right?

      That doesn’t mean that Yellowknife will acquire the climate of Nashville that quickly.  The studied climate was probably close to equilibrium, and we’re still in the process of spinning the control knob.  It might take 10,000 years for the temperatures to catch up to what we’re setting the thermostat to right now. I say “might” because I don’t know how long it takes.  I’m sure it’s not instantaneous, because the Earth has a lot of mass capable of absorbing heat.

      Cubs, Google+, Weird Al, BMW
      • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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        57. Well, there's a lot we don't know.

        The Earth’s mass certainly plays a part in all of this, but in the end it’s still basically increases to internal energy that exhibits as increases in temperature. There isn’t any really true ‘equilibrium’ to this system, but I think I understand what you’re saying, that the fluctuations were minimal and transitioning very slowly, which is only partially true. The Eocene saw a massive increase in both atmospheric carbon and temperature initially, transitioned fairly rapidly down for both and then began transitioning very slowly down to about 350 or so ppm.

        What I think will happen is that there will be periods of rapid surface heating followed by slowed surface heating and rapid deep ocean heating. That has already happened once when the surface increase virtually stopped for about ten years, but all the energy increase went under the ocean surface. Denialists claimed that the loss of surface increase proved that the greenhouse gas issue was bogus, but then again, they’ll grasp at any straw to maintain their social status and level of lifestyle.

        My assumption is that there may be some time lag, but nobody really knows what ‘time lag’ actually means numerically.

        boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
    • duckpin (3547 posts)
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      51. According to Will Steffen, Director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere

      Program “nonlinear abrupt changes in key environmental parameters  appear to be the norm, not the exception, in the function of the Earth System. Thus, global change is not likely to be played out as a steady or pseudo-linear process under any conceivable scenario but will almost surely be characterized by abrupt changes for which prediction and adaptation are very difficult.”

      "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
      • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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        58. Anybody that has studied solid state physics and

        quantum and E&M knows that NOTHING in this process is linear. Add the fact that the increased carbon output is also fully non-linear and that becomes a statement of the obvious.

        boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
        • duckpin (3547 posts)
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          59. Agreed. An example of a natural system(s) that exhibit non linear change: The

          cod fishery of N&L Province, perhaps the richest in the world at one time, was very productive up to the moment the fishery collapsed. The fishery did not decline, it collapsed and has yet to recover. Newfoundland went from a relatively prosperous province to having a per capita income on 50% that of the state of Mississippi, the poorest American state.

          The cod that remain become sexually mature at a fraction of the size of the normal commercial cod. In New England they are called Scrod and are eaten.   Maybe they should not be eaten.

          In evo-devo the jump is called saltational which is that sciences’ term for an abrupt shift from one evolutionary form to the one that displaced it.

          "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
    • coderEmeritus (338 posts)
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      68. When I say anything about this topic…

      ….. it is simple.  The world is not going to kumbaya suddenly and lower carbon emission substantially, even if they COULD (it would be a Herculean task even if the will was there, and it’s not).

      Rather than sitting around lathering about the next tiny increment of damage in a situation that is already out of control and DESTINED to get more so, sit around and figure out how climate change is going to affect you and just what you are going to do about it.

      Because it’s coming, and you can post about it all you want, no one can stop it now.

      • so far from heaven (10725 posts)
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        69. I'm not totally convinced that is true.

        If everything played out like it did the last time, I agree. Since there is zero probability anything meaningful is going to happen to stop the increase in greenhouse gas emissions for now, we’re pretty well screwed blued and tattooed. HOWEVER:

        geological studies indicate that a sizable drop in CO2 can still occur RELATIVELY quickly, even at 450 to 500 ppm.

        I haven’t been able to find the experts take on just how that occurred and what the driver was.

        boobie"When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun.'" -Groucho Marx
        • duckpin (3547 posts)
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          73. The Vostok ice core from Antarctica goes back 800,000 years and is

          priceless in its store of atmospheric conditions for this long period. It has been, and is still being, analyzed by Russian and French scientists. It has discovered that the Malankovitch cycles  are partly smoothed out by the oceans taking up and releasing CO2. The problem today is that with the oceans already too acidic, anymore uptake of CO2 may well crash the food chain starting at the top. Plants and animals that rely on the shells they grow for protection cannot grow them in an acid environment and those that make up a large % of plankton will cease to exist.

          "The justness of individual land right is  not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged "
    • 99thMonkey (3519 posts)
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      70. K/R – Thanks for inspiring this great discussion. Spot-on!

      • Eleanors38 (168 posts)
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        74. Really good discussion. This old deer hunter further encouraged.