An example of why an election six months away is unpredictable

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  • #312928

    Jim Lane
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    • Total Posts: 387
    @jimlane

    Many (perhaps most) JPR members are absolutely convinced that Biden will  lose. I can’t help but think that this view is heavily influenced by personal preference. Those of us who wanted Bernie to be the nominee are subject to the temptation to lash out and say that Bernie’s defeat means certain doom for the Democrats.

    I often look in on Political Wire, where Taegan Goddard gives brief summaries of the day’s political news.  He includes links to the source, for a more detailed treatment. Right now the listing of the ten most popular recent posts includes these three headlines, each of which I’ve linked to the Political Wire article:

    Biden’s Lead Over Trump Shrinks
    Biden Widens National Lead Over Trump
    Biden Maintains National Lead

    The takeaway: A lot can happen between now and November. I don’t think either candidate is going to get 400 electoral votes, as some of the most partisan zealots (on each side) like to predict. If anyone reaches 400, it’s more likely to be Biden, based on a complete economic collapse that people blame on Trump. Still, the most probable outcome is an election that will be much closer than that.

  • #312932

    NV Wino
    Moderator
    • Total Posts: 4,661
    @nvwino

    Who he runs against is up for grabs. I just don’t think Biden will make it to the general election.

    “As we act, let us not become the evil that we deplore.” Barbara Lee
    “Politicians and pro athletes: The only people who still get paid when they lose.” William Rivers Pitt

  • #312934

    salemcourt
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    @salemcourt

    @nvwino I like the 50/50 answer.  Either he wins or he doesn’t.  Only 2 outcomes.

  • #312938

    Ohio Barbarian
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    • Total Posts: 12,973
    @ohiobarbarian

    Normally, I would say the incumbent president would have the advantage. This far out in 2012 I already knew Obama would be re-elected. The media kept telling us the economy was finally improving and Mitt Romney was the Republican version of Al Gore–Mr. Wooden.

    We also didn’t have 36 million new unemployment claims, the specter of 40% of small businesses disappearing forever, and a looming Great Depression. There is a chance that Trump will fuck up so badly that the election becomes a referendum on him, and whoever the Democrats nominate this summer will win by default.

    That said, from a political science perspective it is important to consider that Hillary Clinton was leading Trump in the spring of 2016 by more than Biden is now, that Biden will lose some support and even more enthusiasm if more Tara Reades come forward, and may in fact not even be the eventual nominee. And, we’re in the middle of a pandemic and quite possibly on the verge of economic disaster.

    So yeah, when I look at it that way, I can’t say with any real confidence who is going to win, but if I had to bet five bucks I’d put it on Trump.

    It’s not because I prefer that Trump win. I don’t care which political party is in the White House for the whirlwind that is probably coming. It’s just a gut feeling. Maybe the Democrats really are better off if they lose. 

    It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

    If Democrats don’t stand for the people, why should people stand for them?--Jim Hightower

  • #312940

    rampart
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    • Total Posts: 534
    @rampart

    any better than jeb bush, cruz, or rubio could? trump will be drugged up for a debate, and will drown any dem ,as he did clinton, in a gish gallop of alternate realities.

    so, yes, to the detriment of our country and the world, trump is about to waltz in with even more senate clowns than begore.

     

  • #312956

    djean111
    Member
    • Total Posts: 3,777
    @djean111

    Trump for four more years, or Biden/other Vichy Dem for eight fucking years.   Many of us are not actually invested in who “wins”, because either way, we lose.

    My prediction for an election six months away – heads, we lose, tails we lose.  Just like in 2016, there is not going to be any of that unity stuff magically appearing.   Just some “I supported Bernie, BUT” stuff, and some vote for the blue stuff.  Won’t work any better this time around.   Not being a Democrat, I am not taking either “side”.  I don’t see the election as zero sum or binary; I do not, and will not, choose between Dem and GOP, I have more choices than that.    I will be voting Green, only Bernie as the candidate could ever change that,  and the polls mean diddly-squat when either outcome sucks.

  • #312961

    gordyfl
    Member
    • Total Posts: 790
    @jamesgordon

    The corporate media is on Biden’s side. Absent a major scandal, Biden will win.

  • #312974

    3fingerbrown
    Donor
    • Total Posts: 2,483
    @donaldtuohy

    Of all years this is the one where one month from now shit could change drastically, let alone 6 months. And as much as I tell myself that I will never vote for this person or that party, come November anything can happen, so to be true to believing I have an open mind about things, I will wait til then to make any actual voting decisions, particularly considering the extraordinary scary times we find ourselves in today.

    All governments lie to their citizen's, but only Americans believe theirs.

  • #313245

    tmbarton1961
    Member
    • Total Posts: 68
    @tmbarton1961

    Incumbents have built-in advantages to winning re-election but those can be outweighed by events out of their control, like a pandemic and economic fall-out as a result of the pandemic.  How the incumbent handles the crisis will determine whether or not he/she will be re-elected.  If voters feel he/she is handling the crisis well, he/she will be re-elected like FDR was or like Dubya was.  Elections are a referendum or performance appraisal on the incumbent’s performance.

    Biden could well win in November because the voters are rejecting Trump by either voting for the former VP or not voting for either candidate.  Trump really needs his base to turnout and keep hold of enough party unaffiliated voters in the swing states to win.

    Regardless of who wins in November, we are ALL losers.  Climate change and health care issues don’t care who wins in November.  We are like the passengers on the Titanic.  We have little to no control over how the ship was built and on how the ship’s crew operates the ship.

    --tmbarton1961

  • #313374

    Pastiche
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    @pastiche
  • #316250

    ColorsoftheRainbow
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    • Total Posts: 552
    @colorsoftherainbow

    @jimlane writes,

    The takeaway: A lot can happen between now and November. I don’t think either candidate [Republican incumbent Donald Trump or presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden] is going to get 400 electoral votes, as some of the most partisan zealots (on each side) like to predict. If anyone reaches 400, it’s more likely to be Biden, based on a complete economic collapse that people blame on Trump. Still, the most probable outcome is an election that will be much closer than that.

    This is because, since the 1990s, winning Republicans have won an average of 9 (George W. Bush) and 10 (Donald Trump) electoral votes per carried state; Democrats have won an overall average of 12 electoral voters per carried state. (Bill Clinton won 11 and 12 on average. Barack Obama won 13 and 12 on average.)

    Since 1992, the average number of carried states has been 29. The range has been between 26 and 32, It was as follows: Bill Clinton, 32 and 31; George W. Bush, 30 and 31; Barack Obama, 28 and 26; and Donald Trump, 30.

    Structurally, with where states have been performing, the Democrats are more likelier than the Republicans to reach 400 electoral votes. (Granted, this has not happened with either party since 1988.)

    I am mindful of what you are mentioning.

    I posted a very detailed response to a topic originated by @ohiobarbarian (the first link is his opening post; the next link is my first posted comment):

    https://jackpineradicals.com/boards/topic/a-couple-of-2020-election-scenarioswith-pretty-maps-and-everything/

    https://jackpineradicals.com/boards/topic/a-couple-of-2020-election-scenarioswith-pretty-maps-and-everything/#post-309883

     

    I also will mention this: I sense the party which will win Election 2020 for U.S. President will also win for U.S. Senate. They will align. If Donald Trump wins re-election, the Republicans will retain the U.S. Senate. If Joe Biden unseats Donald Trump, in a Democratic pickup for U.S. President, the 2016-to-2020 national shift will be enough to also deliver a Democratic majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate. (For U.S. President, Democrats need a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +4. For U.S. Senate, Democrats need a U.S. Popular Vote margin of +5.)

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