Barbarian at the Gates: Echoes of the Reformation–How millennials and new technology can make Bernie Sanders win

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    • #200762
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 21,911

      I’m sure most of you have noticed that the corporate media ignores Bernie Sanders as much as possible, and usually smears him the rest of the time. For example, as David Doel pointed out, the day after Bernie had the largest rally of the presidential campaign so far in Queens–about 26,000 people showed up–not one corporate media Sunday morning show even mentioned it. Not one.

      Not only that, they seldom mention that he has the most individual donors of all or has raised more money than anyone except Trump, and they never mention that Bernie’s support overwhelmingly comes from all identity politics sectors of the working class; race and ethnicity don’t matter, his support comes from probably every county in the country, and he leads in the number of donors living in Obama to Trump swing counties.

      Furthermore, they downplay how well he is doing in the flawed polls over all, and seldom report on the few that show him ahead or in a virtual tie in the early caucus and primary states. In fact, if one gets all their news from the corporate media, one might well think that Bernie’s campaign is all but finished.

      Fortunately, Bernie’s strongest support comes from millennials, and most of them don’t get their news from traditional media. They get theirs over the internet, and there Bernie is doing quite well. I’ll go further and say that most people under 50 don’t watch cable news much; they pay far more attention to the internet, Twitter, YouTube, etc. This is the new alternative media, and it’s everywhere, which partially explains why Bernie polls so much higher with those who have been on this planet a half century or less–they are simply more likely to see and hear his message of real, fundamental, transformative change than older generations.

      The polls themselves tell us another critical fact, which is that because most pollsters poll “likely” voters, meaning those who have voted in at least the last three biennial elections, their samples assume that the same group of people will be voting in 2020, and that those who have either never voted or skipped the 2016 election won’t vote in 2020, either.

      Bernie knows he cannot win with that particular pool of voters, which is why his campaign is actively reaching out to first time and sporadic voters  whose lives will be dramatically improved if his plans become reality. The corrupt corporate media isn’t going to help him, so that leaves person to person contact and the alternative media made possible by new technology to do so. I am here to say that this strategy has an excellent chance of success, because, in a way, it’s happened before.

      The printing press was invented in Europe around 1439. By 1519, when Martin Luther began preaching his message of reform for the Roman Catholic Church, it was in every city and most midsize towns in Europe. In what’s now Germany, literacy was particularly widespread. Luther was deemed a heretic by the Church, but by the time it moved against him he, and his ideas, had too much popular support to stop. Luther wasn’t the first heretic to challenge the Church, but all of the previous ones had been successfully repressed, in large part due to the fact they were unable to get their message out beyond their own regions.

      Luther’s ideas were all over the continent in just a few years. At the time, that was fast, and the corrupt Catholic Church was still using more traditional means of communication and just couldn’t keep up, at least at first. Protestantism would never have survived, much less thrived, without the printing press. It is also no coincidence that those who used the new technology of the printing press, and its various spinoffs, were the same people who were most likely to embrace Protestantism.

      The situation today is not identical, but it does have some parallels. Those who are most likely to support Bernie are in fact relatively younger and have the most to gain from Bernie’s agenda, and are also the ones who are most likely to have access to his message. If they turn out to vote in larger than expected numbers in the primaries, Bernie will win the nomination or, if it is stolen from him, the theft will be so blatant it will at least light the fuse to a real popular revolution that will not be as peaceful as the one Bernie envisions.

      And if Bernie wins the nomination, he will win the general election, for in that campaign, even the corporate media will be forced to get his message out to more people, and his message of transformational change is a winning one. Neither Trump nor Pence will have a chance even if they have more money. I’m sure Hillary will empathize with them.

      So take heart, thanks for reading, spread the word, and have a nice Saturday night.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #200954
      elias39
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      • Total Posts: 5,325
    • #201019
      Blue Meany
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      • Total Posts: 220

      Demographics and voting patterns are also changing, and do not seem to be adequately reflected in most polls.   The  general trend has long been that the older a citizen is the more likely he or she is to vote.  The silent generation votes at a rate of about 70%.  But that has been changing in the last couple of elections–millenials outvoted baby boomers in the last election and generation z, which will be 10% of the eligible voters in this election, voted at rates much higher than was predicted base on the voting rates of young voters many decades.  The majority of elegible voters will be under 50, and, regardless of what polls say, we will win if they get out to vote.   I think most of the pollsters are using outmoded models that do not reflect the current mobilization of younger voters.

      • #201024
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 21,911

        @bluemeany Exactly. In a way, the pollsters are like TV meteorologists. Their forecasts are based on models of weather averages going back decades, but the climate has already changed some and is changing more every year. That’s why their forecasts, often even their next day forecasts, are wrong so often now. They were more accurate 20 years ago.

        If voters pollsters consider unlikely show up in any significant numbers, the corporate media is going to be in for a shock.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

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