Barbarian at the Gates: First Primary Election Prediction–The Fading of Joe Biden has begun, and should sink him.

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    • #74619
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 21,911

      Joe Biden’s latest “gaffe,” to be waaaaay too kind, is a presidential campaign killer. He fucking flip-flopped on abortion, twice in a month, with a total 180 degree turn in 24 hours. This is the sort of shit that gets people’s attention, and something they remember come voting time.

      About a month ago, this very pleasant and harmless-looking older white lady approached Joe Biden at one of his events that couldn’t fill up a bingo hall. She was smiling at old Joe, saying she wanted to ask him something. Probably figuring this would be a harmless softball question from one of his elderly supporters, Biden approached her. She identified herself as being affiliated with the ACLU, and asked if he would commit to repealing the Hyde Amendment because its prohibition on using federal funds for abortion harmed poor women of all ethnic groups, and disproportionately hurt women of color.

      Biden said that the amendment, which he’s always supported, disgusting Vichy Democratic parasite that he is, was necessary then but wasn’t now and he at least implied he would repeal it. When the old lady asked if he’d commit to it as part of his campaign, he backed away and literally made a brushing off gesture with his hands, thrice. I’m sure someone’s posted the video on JPR because it just came out this week. So there was that.

      Then, just the day before yesterday, Biden said that he still supported the Hyde Amendment in a campaign statement. The immediate 21st Century uproar from prochoice organizations and candidates(Elizabeth Warren, for one), was fast and furious. The Biden campaign was completely unprepared. They came out with a statement that Biden thought the old lady was asking about some provision about Mexico in the Hyde Amendment, which made no sense whatsoever and meant that either he was stupid or his campaign was bullshitting. Or both. I think both. Biden’s just not that bright, folks.

      The overwhelming national conclusion was that his campaign was bullshitting, and then today Biden came out in favor of repealing the Hyde Amendment as described in this article from The Hill:

      Sources close to Biden said he was out-of-sorts as he traveled around the Atlanta area on Thursday. The former vice president, normally known for his garrulousness, was disengaged from the people around him, these sources said, a pensive mood supplanting his usual ebullience.

      Behind the scenes, even some of his own team grumbled that they were uncomfortable with his position. “It was a real problem,” one close ally said. “I think a lot of people felt like it wasn’t going well.”

      By the time he was preparing his remarks for a Democratic Party fundraising event that night, even Biden realized there was no plausible way forward beside switching his previous position.

      “I can’t justify leaving millions of women without the care they need,” he said Thursday night. “I can no longer support an amendment that makes that right dependent on someone’s ZIP code.”

      Complete flippity-flop with a resounding splat. His campaign is seriously damaged because a lot of Democratic voters are now aware that Biden was in favor of denying poor women the ability to get an abortion for decades. This is a big issue. They won’t forget this. The other presidential candidates won’t forget either, nor should they.

      Biden flip-flopped hugely, to use a Trumpism. He’s inconsistent and maybe weak. He’s not trustworthy on abortion. And if he’s not trustworthy on abortion, it won’t be long before working and middle class Democratic voters start thinking he’s not trustworthy on most issues they care about that impact them. The Biden’s campaign’s assertion that the Democratic faithful will forgive good old Uncle Joe was met with derision and contempt from many.

      On SV today, for example, one of the Hillbot owner’s Chosen Ones declared that it was time for criticism of St. Joe for this to cease! The usual suspects swarmed in to say things like Uncle Joe was demonstrating his political savviness, thereby proving he was in touch with voters and that people who like Uncle Joe will either forgive him or forget about this by primary time, if not by the day after tomorrow.

      It didn’t go well for them. One unpleasant Biden backer immediately switched to Harris, which amused me. A Buttgig supporter said that if Bernie did that, SV would crucify him. At least half of the participants on that thread refused to drop their criticism. What can I say? I enjoy a little schadenfreude every now and then.

      Seriously, Biden and his backers(Very Intelligent People who go to all the right parties, to be sure) are counting on Biden’s association with Obama to carry him to the nomination on a wave of Holy O nostalgia. The problem is, most Democratic voters have gotten past any nostalgia for Obama, and that includes many black Obama voters because they are working class and they’ve realized Obama really didn’t do anything for them.

      For eight years. And here comes his sidekick Old Whitey Joe or, to working class whites, the Old Gaffer. Meanwhile, things have not improved or have gotten worse since Obama took office, and that’s the sort of thing that cuts through the superficial political loyalties the Biden campaign is counting on. Plus, someone with a track record of advocating for all of these things they’ve wanted and needed for much or all of their lives is running for President. Somebody a majority of them like and/or respect.

      It should come as no surprise that working class Democratic voters of all genders and ethnicities should compare Uncle Joe to Uncle Bernie. Politically, what that means is that every time Biden fucks up, more of them will notice, and some of them will decide that he’s their last choice to take on Trump. His almost certainly inflated poll numbers had already dropped by an average of 7% a week before this abortion cock up happened. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t lose at least another 5-10 percent over the next couple of weeks.

      Meanwhile, Bernie’s will go up a little. If he gains even 5% in this sea of negative M$M coverage I’ll be delighted. He won’t drop, though.

      Then come the debates. This is a lose-lose for Biden. If the DNC rigs it and pits him up against a bunch of those polling at 1%, it’ll confirm progressives’ worst fears and Biden may still fuck it up in any number of ways. Maybe Gabbard or Gravel will be able to take a shot at him. Or maybe one of the Lesser Neoliberal Ones will get in a good zinger. Or maybe he’ll just say something outrageous nobody at the debate questions but will go viral on the internet. At best, he’ll look lame and untested.

      If the DNC puts him on the same stage with Bernie, he’s burnt toast. It’s a choice between a slow death spiral or having a wing blown off.

      The only way Biden can get the nomination now is for the DNC to obviously and flagrantly rig it, which would almost guarantee Trump’s re-election. I’m not sure who else the VDs can coalesce around now, if they can organize themselves enough to do so, which may or may not happen. Whatever, I think Bernie’s chances of actually winning the primary outright just went up substantially. Really.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #74626
      MistaP
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 3,082

      plus the Pope (three Popes in a row in fact) said to stay the fuck out of Iraq: now Biden’s went from siding with one perspective to siding with–nothing; he’s not even a conservadem or a 6th-Commandment Dem, now he’s–nothing

    • #74630
      Flying Squirrel
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      • Total Posts: 546
    • #74652
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 21,911

      Drip, drip, drip comes the slime from Uncle Joe’s past. He tried as VP to prevent contraceptives from being required by Obamacare.

      Thank you, @pademd .

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #74667
      HassleCat
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 7,551

      At least we’re having fun watching his supporters trying to defend his weathervaning.

    • #74761
      bazukhov
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,996

      Overloaded baggage car drags train off the tracks.

       

      Tell me, great captain, how do the angels sleep when the devil leaves his porch light on? Tom Waites

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