Barbarian at the Gates: On South Carolina, Super Tuesday, and the Impending Recession

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    • #277397
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 21,914

      Well, here we are. It’s South Carolina primary day. The polls there are all over the map, ranging from those that hardly bother with people under 45 that show a Biden Blowout to others that show Bernie within the margin of error, but with Biden still in the lead. I don’t know what’s going to happen there, but it is likely Biden will finally win his first primary victory.

      If Bernie wins, he’s the presumptive nominee immediately. If Biden wins, SV gets to celebrate for a couple of days before Hurricane Bernie rips through the Democratic establishment on Tuesday with a massive storm surge. Let’s take a look at each state from a very conservative point of view, the Real Clear Politics poll averages, followed by my own summary take:

      North Carolina: Biden +3 over Bernie. This is basically a tossup. If younger people and more unlikely voters show up, Bernie wins.

      Virginia: Sanders +5.5 over Biden. At least a narrow Sanders win.

      Alabama: No data available. I don’t know, but I’ll guess this will be a substantial Biden win.

      Tennessee: No data available. There have been some polls, looks like a narrow Biden win over Bernie, but that’s a guess.

      Maine: Sanders +9 over Biden. Substantial Sanders win.

      Massachusetts: Sanders +3.7 over Warren. Last poll has Sanders up by 8. Substantial Sanders win. Crushing Warren loss.

      Vermont: Sanders +38 over it doesn’t matter. Crushing Sanders win and sweep of delegates.

      Minnesota: Klobuchar +6 over Sanders. Modest Klobuchar win in her home state. Sanders still wins delegates.

      Oklahoma: Bloomberg +3.5 over Biden. If Biden wins South Carolina, he may win this one. Probably no delegates for Bernie.

      Arkansas: Bloomberg +1 over Biden, +4 over Bernie. Based on the Bernie campaign’s GOTV efforts among Arkansas Latinos, I’ll go out on a limb and predict a narrow Biden victory over Sanders, with Bloomberg dropping to third. 3 way almost even delegate split.

      Texas: Sanders +8 over Biden. Substantial Sanders victory with a delegate haul that eclipses all of the delegate losses listed above. 

      Colorado: Sanders +13 over Warren. Decisive Sanders victory. Warren may get some delegates, the others–none.

      Utah: Sanders +13 over Bloomberg. Crushing Sanders victory. Possible delegate sweep.

      California: Sanders +18.3. At least a decisive Sanders victory, crushing if he gets 350 or more delegates. Remember, it takes at least two weeks for California to count all of its ballots, and in 2016 Bernie’s share went up with the counting. This one could be monstrous.

      Super Tuesday should see Sanders well on his way to gaining at least a substantial plurality of delegates, making him just that much harder to stop. It should be a good day.

      Meanwhile, stock markets are tanking all over the world as the capitalist supply chain is disrupted by the coronavirus. It’s already having an effect on American businesses, as @l0onix testified here earlier today. This will get worse, and the first layoffs will probably happen in the spring.

      By the time the Democratic convention in Milwaukee rolls around in July, it’s likely that an official recession will have been declared. Only Bernie Sanders has an agenda that can address this inevitable crisis, at the expense of Wall Street and to the material benefit of the working and middle classes. Trump will bluster and flounder.

      I’ll call it now, folks(if you’ll forgive the Bidenism): If Bernie is the nominee, which looks likely, and if a recession hits by autumn, which is almost certain, Bernie will win a substantial Electoral College victory over Trump in November. Have a nice weekend.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #277453
      N2Doc
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 8,843
    • #277536
      MackMarkstein
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 277

      Well OK, that’s a bit clickbaity on my part, but fairly famous economics professor Roubini said that if…  certain things he considers probable in coming months happen, Trump is doomed regarding re-election.

      You know that had to be an “interesting” mini-lecture by Roubini because:  He did several segments on Yahoo Finance Video, I believe yesterday.  One of those segments made it to YouTube but not that one.  I went back to Yahoo Finance Video to replay that interesting one…”This video currently unavailable.”

      The early segment discussed his view on how deeply the coronavirus problem could affect global economic cycles.  He said possibly a global recession but he doesn’t see the signs at this point, in the recent past or present.

      The second segment:  I only have it from memory now.  He discussed the stresses on the Trump campaign.  He went into an area you might not have expected.  He pointed out the economic sanctions placed against Iran and Russia, and the tariffs against China.  He pointed out that govts. like Iran would be trying very hard for “regime change in the USA”.  In other words, doing what they can during this opportune time to prevent Trump from being re-elected.  They don’t want 4 more years of Trump.  Their regimes may not survive that (speaking mostly of Iran).  He says they have cyber-warfare capability and he expects that to be done for real in coming months.  He says the main purpose would be to weaken Trump, as they expect he would not be seen as so strong a leader (if he ever was)  if he allowed it to happen.  I think that’s the context in which Roubini said “Trump is doomed.”  I think Roubini already was saying Trump is weakened by the playing-out of the economic downturn we’ve witnessed the start of.

      He also expects the Iran-proxy military to stir up battles around the Middle East again, possibly to contradict the Trump narrative that hooray, the USA intimidated those Iranians enough to stay back behind the line.

      Roubini then (this is the part you’d want to miss) said that even if Sanders is elected, he won’t get any reform done since the “median Democrat in Congress” is more conservative, wouldn’t vote for any of that.  OK, I don’t give Roubini much credit as that kind of political analyst.  He won credit from many people around 2009 by being one of the few big-name economists to predict the “housing bubble” was bad enough to cause a major recession and crisis in the financial sector.

      • #277575
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 21,914

        @mackmarkstein Even with a recession, it’s possible for Trump to beat any of the rest of that Democratic lot. He’d beat Bloomberg for sure, and probably Biden, regardless of what the polls say now. At least that’s how I see it. He’d deflect the responsibility for the recession onto either his domestic political rivals or maybe on the Chinese.

        I think Bernie would win whether there’s a recession or not, but if there is, we’re looking at a 1932-style landslide. States that haven’t gone for a Democrat since 1964 would be in play, and Texas would almost certainly turn blue.

        As for recalcitrant Democrats in Congress, that’s why it’s so important for Cenk Uygur to get in there. He’d be Bernie’s enforcer–rude, bullying, calling out the corruption on the House floor. Bernie’s revolution wouldn’t stop; it would target those who shot down things like free college and Medicare for All, and it would win in 2022 with Bernie out on the campaign trail as much as possible.

        I really think that might be necessary. The thing is, unlike Obama, Bernie will try to keep his promises, and that makes all the difference in the world, even if he doesn’t succeed right away on everything. People would stay engaged, pressuring their congresscritters. Many of them will go with the flow just to keep their seats, as they see that corporate donations are becoming more of a liability than an asset when it comes to their electoral prospects.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

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