Barbarian at the Gates: The 2020 presidential election is stark in its simplicity.

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    • #238506
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 21,914

      There are two, and only two, possible outcomes of the 2020 Democratic primary, and they both depend on a single variable. It’s really, really simple. If younger people, under 45 years old, vote in significantly higher numbers than those projected by the pollsters, Bernie Sanders will win. If they don’t, he won’t.

      That’s it.

      I don’t know precisely what percentage of “unlikely” voters under 45 must show up. It will vary from state to state, as it depends on how much that state’s likely Democratic voters are already predisposed to voting for Bernie. My best guesstimate is that if 20% more of that electorate shows up, Bernie will be an almost instant juggernaut. If it’s 10%, he will probably win on the first ballot. Again, I don’t know on the figures, but I’m confident if one out of five younger voters who aren’t expected to vote do vote, it’s over, by simple sheer weight of numbers.

      If Bernie wins the primary, he’ll attract an even broader cross-section of  “unlikely” voters and crush Trump in the general. How many he needs will depend on the state. In Ohio, it’s as small as 200,000 voters. I’m confident he would get them, and there goes the whole Midwest, with only Indiana as a question mark. In Texas, it may take a couple of million, but they are potentially there for Bernie. In Ohio, they’ll be a broad multi-ethnic working class coalition. In Texas, most would probably be younger Latinos.

      I think most would agree that flipping Texas would signal a sea change in American politics.

      If young people don’t show up in larger numbers in the primaries, the two remaining possibilities are dark. Either Trump wins, or the Democrat eeks out a narrow Electoral College victory. I don’t know everything that would happen in a second Trump term, but I think it’s safe to say it would be bad.

      The other possibility is potentially even worse. The Democrat wins, expends all of his or her energy on accomplishing one or two incremental improvements, nothing fundamentally changes, and in 2024 or 2028 a Republican Fascist with brains wins, and then there will be hell to pay.

      Since I’m 61, I now say to my younger brothers and sisters in the progressive movement: Your destiny lies within your grasp. All you have to do is reach out and take it. Your future, not to mention mine, depends on what you all do this coming winter and spring.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #238522
      elias39
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 5,325

      Agree. The young Must vote. I don’t know if any one thing – or group of things – that trump has damaged will finally reach a tipping point with the frenzied younger generations. Maybe if they shut their phones off for a day the harsh reality of this moment in American history will begin to take shape in their minds. If you can’t drive while texting, can’t walk while texting, you can’t Think while texting.

      And maybe skip a session on the Peleton.

    • #238523
      GZeusH
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 4,378

      “Republican Fascist with brains” 

      I’ll put that in the same category as flying wildebeest.

       

      Corporate America consists of totalitarian entities laser-focused on short-term greed.

      If you just got finessed into calling the medicine that won the 2015 Nobel Prize for its role in treating human disease ‘horse de-wormer’ then you need to sit the next couple of plays out.

    • #238526
      bazukhov
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,996

      Young wolves show us your teeth.   John Steinbeck

      I’m 75 and still have a few of my original teeth and I’ll happily vote for Bernie if he’s nominated.

      Tell me, great captain, how do the angels sleep when the devil leaves his porch light on? Tom Waites

    • #238546
      Punxsutawney
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 2,191

      We seem to be a rarity within our age group OB. And for people like my parents, who think that Sanders or Warren are the second coming of Chairman Mao there is no hope. Clearly years of propaganda works.

      Now for my sons, that’s an entirely different matter. They will both be voting for Sanders though the older doesn’t think he’s a “true” socialist which tells you how flipped they are from my parent’s generation.

      I actually answered a land line poll here in Oregon last week. I gave an enthusiastic rating for voting for Bernie, a “Meh” level of support for Warren, and zeros (wish I could have gone negative) for the crap candidates that remained.

      In America, “Liberty” means “Free to Die in Service of Capital” - Amfortas the hippie.

      Most of today’s elites have the moral and social reasoning capacities of spoiled toddlers.

      “People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage...but the privileged also feel that their privileges, however egregious they may seem to others, are a solemn, basic, God-right. The sensitivity of the poor to injustice is a trivial thing c

      • #238561
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 21,914

        @punxsutawney Your older son is correct; Bernie is not a true socialist. At most, he’s a social democrat. OTOH, he’s at least an FDR or Henry Wallace in 1944 Democrat. That just happens to be the bare minimum that gives us a chance to survive climate change. Nothing less will do.

        (chuckles) For some reason this made me think of a party my stepson had, about six 20-somethings enjoying smoke and beer around the firepit out back. Having indulged myself, I joined them and started talking socialism, then stopped and said I didn’t want to bore them. They emphatically told me to keep talking; they wanted to learn more.

        Meanwhile, one girl was fact-checking me on her smart phone. Periodically, she’d just say, “He’s right,” or one of the others would look at her and she’d nod.

        They’re all voting for Bernie next March.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

        • #238638
          Punxsutawney
          Moderator
          • Total Posts: 2,191

          @ohiobarbarian

          +++

          I agree with Bernie being an FDR/Wallace Democrat. I tell people I’m a leftist radical. Meaning I’m an FDR Democrat and a big fan of his four freedoms speech.

          Thanks for fighting the good fight. 

          In America, “Liberty” means “Free to Die in Service of Capital” - Amfortas the hippie.

          Most of today’s elites have the moral and social reasoning capacities of spoiled toddlers.

          “People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage...but the privileged also feel that their privileges, however egregious they may seem to others, are a solemn, basic, God-right. The sensitivity of the poor to injustice is a trivial thing c

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