Barbarian’s Eye View: State of the Nina Turner v. Shontel Brown campaign in the Ohio 11th

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    • #429995
      Ohio Barbarian
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      • Total Posts: 21,304

      The big time money spending has begun. The Democrat establishment candidate, Shontel Brown, launched first Facebook and then television ads featuring her standing with Joe Biden and saying that she will work with Joe Biden. Television commercials are now frequent, with Brown or various Black shills saying that Brown is the choice of  “true Democrats,” and the latest one has her bragging that she “will vote with Joe Biden.”

      A few negative ads have people, all Black of course, saying that Democrats don’t want someone who doesn’t support Joe Biden. The establishment has opened the money spigots, and the ads are climbing towards saturation levels. They’re also paying people to distribute yard signs, so those are going up now.

      Nina Turner’s campaign has not been idle. For about a week, Brown’s ads dominated. Now, after nearly every Brown ad, there’s a Nina Turner ad. There are two basic formats. In one, Turner sits in a living room with several other people, always both Black and white, and says things like everyone in the working class and the barely middle class deserves to live a decent life. There are several of these ads on several subjects.

      The second format is simply Nina staring into the camera and talking to the viewer about, for example, how her mother died when Nina was only 22 and that’s why she supports Medicare for All, because everyone deserves good health care. There are several of these, as well.

      It’s most effective when Turner’s ad comes on right after Brown’s. While we were watching Jeopardy! this evening, there was Shontel Brown, bouncing on a couch and looking every bit the cheerleader, saying how she will vote with Joe Biden every time. There’s an older Black lady sitting there who says “And that’s what Ohio Democrats want,” or something very similar to that.

      Then Turner came on in one of her living rooms, talking about how no one should have to work their entire lives to pay for college, and that’s why she’s for free public college, with a multiracial group of young people looking suitably impressed.

      Brown comes off as fake. Plastic. A puppet. Turner comes across as a genuine human being who means what she says. I still think it’s going to be a blowout, and somebody at the DNC is panicking.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #429999
      NV Wino
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      • Total Posts: 7,713

      Never underestimate the Clinton network. Or the overall election corruption.

      “As we act, let us not become the evil that we deplore.” Barbara Lee
      “Politicians and pro athletes: The only people who still get paid when they lose.” William Rivers Pitt

      • #430108
        Segami
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        • Total Posts: 5,434

         

         

        ……But it will be close (imo) considering Hillaroid’s blessing for Shontel which will also come with access to her machine……..this run is very personal for Chairman Mao…

        Medicare For All | The Gold Standard Health Care Plan

    • #430027
      Mr. Mickeys Mom
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 6,056

      It means nothing to work with a Democratic party that left working class and the needy behind decades ago…

      Somebody show Hillary the door, please. Maybe her endorsement will once again help the opponent of who she endorses.

      Hell, no... I'm not giving up...

    • #430103
      MizzGrizz
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      • Total Posts: 3,446

      I hope she can win,but even if she gets past the primary rigging the Democrats would just support her opponent in the general.

      • #430126
        Ohio Barbarian
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        • Total Posts: 21,304

        Oh, the Republicans will no doubt trot out the same token resistance Black woman who runs every two years, but this is an 80+ Democratic district, courtesy of Republican gerrymandering. Whoever wins the D-nomination wins the election. Every time. There’s rigging for you. Rigging so thorough they don’t even need to cheat, but they get away with it.

        It would take Joe Biden coming down here to campaign for Shontel the Blue Team Cheerleader, and he ain’t gonna bother. The real question for me is what Nina will do, or not do, once she is elected, not whether or not she will be elected. The party hacks may narrow the margin, but they’re not going to overcome at least a 25 point lead. Not in two months. Not in this district.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #430107
      Cold Mountain Trail
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      • Total Posts: 12,932

      If she loses, I have no doubt she would challenge rather than ‘go gentle into that goodnight’

      • #430127
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 21,304

        I don’t think it will come to that, though. I really think this one’s already over. No cheerleader letting Joe Biden sniff her hair is going to beat Nina, not in this district.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #430186
      Jim Lane
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      Is it a simple plurality to win, with no runoff provision?

      If so, then the outcome between Turner and Brown would be affected by the also-ran candidates.  Whose votes would they pull?  If several of them are also getting anti-establishment votes, that could help Brown.  For example, suppose Brown has 40% of the vote, anti-establishment candidates collectively have 60%, but the candidates finishing third and lower take a big chunk of the anti-establishment vote.  Could Brown win with 40% to Turner’s 35%, miscellaneous others 25%?

      Or it could go the other way.  If Turner is the best-known candidate, maybe she’s cleared the progressive lane, and all the other candidates are anti-Turner rather than anti-establishment.  Then Turner might win with 40% of the vote, if plurality is enough.

      In either of these scenarios, the picture could change if some of the no-hoper candidates drop out.

      Of course, if either Brown or Turner breaks 50%, then none of this matters.

      • #430252
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 21,304

        So theoretically a candidate could win the nomination with, say, 35% of the vote.

        There’s only been one poll, and that one had Turner up 50-15% over Brown, with a bunch of other candidates in the single digits. I have no doubt that Brown’s share has increased due to the recent advertising blitz, but I think you’ll agree that 35 points is a tough deficit to overcome.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

        • #430283
          Jim Lane
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          • Total Posts: 828

          @ohiobarbarian

          If Turner is at 50%, then she would be the likely winner, even if there were a runoff or RCV.  It would have to be a situation where all the other candidates were more establishment types, and all but one of them rose above personal ambition to withdraw in favor of Brown (or someone else deemed to have the best chance), and all their voters went along with the recommendation.

          That part about rising above personal ambition isn’t completely impossible, though.  There was a similar situation early in John Kerry’s career.  The big issue then was the Vietnam War.  A largely anti-war Congressional district in Massachusetts was represented by pro-war Phil Philbin, who had won re-election in the previous cycle because two opponents split the anti-war vote in a first-past-the-post Democratic primary.  Activists were determined to avert a repetition.  A caucus was organized, with several would-be Democratic nominees agreeing to coalesce behind the winner.  The most prominent candidates were Kerry and Robert Drinan.  I think the details were that other candidates were eliminated one by one; Drinan had more support than Kerry but not enough to close it out under the agreed-upon rules; Kerry nevertheless chose to withdraw in favor of Drinan so that there wouldn’t be another split.  Drinan beat Philbin in the primary and went on to serve several terms as one of the notable progressives in Congress.s

          I see no chance that anything similar would happen to derail Turner’s candidacy.  I mention the incident mainly because I think it’s a very interesting story.

    • #430265
      ColorsoftheRainbow
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      • Total Posts: 659

      @OhioBarbarian,

       

      • #430284
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 21,304

        Or are they betting Washington and Congress will be a trap for Nina, who will quickly become as ineffectual as the rest of the Squad?

        That’s very possible. Many leftists had high hopes for Cori Bush, but she went along to get along just like the rest of them. Why should Nina Turner be any different?

        I don’t know. I think we’re going to find out pretty soon, though. The primary is less than two months away.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

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