- Total Posts: 4,023
Thursday, October 3, 2019
As the California primary election for the nomination of a Democratic presidential candidate draws closer, increasing amounts of attention are being paid to the Golden State and how the 416 pledged delegates up-for-grabs will be divided. The primary will be held on Tuesday, March 3, 2020, as one of 14 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday, a weekend after the South Carolina primary. New polling suggests a tight three-way tie at the top of the Democratic race, while the campaign of California Senator Kamala Harris continues to encounter issues, even in her home state.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren stands at 23% in the poll, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 22% and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders at 21% – making the race a virtual tie when applying for the implied margin of error. Sanders emerges the biggest winner from the poll, rising 9 points from the 12% of declared support he received in the most recent comparable polling from July 2019 with an impressive 38% of polled respondents between the ages of 18 and 44 supporting the Vermont Senator. Meanwhile, Warren has also accumulated a substantial gain in California support since July, rising 8 points from 15% to 23%. Warren and Biden lead amongst an older voting demographic, consistent with other polls.
Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,705California adult residents, including 1,194interviewed on cell phones and 511interviewed on landline telephones. Interviews took an average of 18minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from September 16–25, 2019.
Cell phone interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household.
Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender.
For both cell phones and landlines, telephone numbers were called as many as eight times. When no contact with an individual was made, calls to a number were limited to six. Also, to increase our ability to interview Asian American adults, we made up to three additional calls to phone numbers estimated by Survey Sampling International as likely to be associated with Asian American individuals
October 3, 2019 at 4:06 PM #172492
October 3, 2019 at 5:31 PM #172585bazukhovParticipant
- Total Posts: 2,605
How many of the lower tier candidates are no longer running for president but now running for Vice-President or cabinet offices?
Tell me, great captain, how do the angels sleep when the devil leaves his porch light on? Tom Waites
October 3, 2019 at 7:52 PM #172743Ohio BarbarianModerator
- Total Posts: 13,702
Oh, at least six.
It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs
If Democrats don’t stand for the people, why should people stand for them?--Jim Hightower
October 4, 2019 at 12:01 PM #173606
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