Experts sound the alarm on declining birth rates among younger generations: “It’s a crisis”

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    • #408403
      Cold Mountain Trail
      • Total Posts: 12,042

      New data is confirming a baby boom that some doctors expected was actually a “baby bust.” Health departments in more than two dozen states provided records to CBS News, showing a 7% drop in births in December — nine months after the first lockdowns began. Researchers say it continues a much bigger plunge in fertility in recent decades.

      The number of babies the average woman in the U.S. is expected to deliver has dropped from nearly four in the 1950s to less than two today…While the global population is still growing, a major study published in The Lancet in 2020 predicted it would peak in 2064, and then fall by nearly a billion people by the end of the century — the reason being, fewer babies.

      The U.S. is already below the so-called “replacement level” by some measures…Asked what changed, (Professor Dowell Myers) pointed to “the burdens of life…The cost of housing, the cost of education, all these things have become more and more difficult,” Dowell said. “I think the boomers themselves don’t realize how much harder it is for millennials today. And they think, ‘Oh yeah, when we were young we had to live, you know, on very little money, and we made do, and you can do the same.’ That’s the story, right? Well no, it really is a lot harder for young people today. It’s amazing how much harder it is.”

    • #408406
      • Total Posts: 1,440

      I don’t think they truly understand that the crisis is too many people, not that there aren’t enough babies being born.

      So, my first and primary reaction to this is “Good!”

      Who are you? | What do you want? | Why are you here? | Where are you going? | Do you have anything worth living for? | Who do you serve and who do you trust?

      • #408407
        Cold Mountain Trail
        • Total Posts: 12,042

        “Researchers say it continues a much bigger plunge in fertility in recent decades.”


        US has mostly been at zpg since the 70s, with immigration being the main driver of population increase.


        • #408420
          • Total Posts: 1,444

          The population of the US in 1970 was just over 200 million. Today, it’s around 60% higher, in just 50 years. That’s not all due to immigration.

          “There’s a new spirit abroad in the land. The old days of ‘grab and greed’ are on their way out. We’re beginning to think of what we owe the other fellow, not just what we’re compelled to give him. The time’s coming… when we shan’t be able to fill our bellies in comfort while others go hungry, sleep in warm beds while others shiver in the cold.... And God willing, we’ll live to see that day…” Basil Rathbone,"Sherlock Holmes Faces Death" (Universal 1943)

          • #408422
            Cold Mountain Trail
            • Total Posts: 12,042


            1978 = 1.7

            1980 = 1.7

            1982 = 1.8

            1993 = 2.0 (first time it went to 2 since the 70s, stayed at 2 until 2009)

            2009 = 1.9 (and drops thereafter…)


            Immigrants went from less than 9% of population in 1970 to 14.5% in 2015.  Immigrants tend to have birthrates similar to the home country in the first generation and similar to the country of migration thereafter.



            “Less than 5 percent of the total population in 1970 – or less than one in 20 people – were foreign-born.

            However, over the last four decades, the United States has experienced what many are calling the “second great wave” of immigration. Since 1970, the foreign-born population has continuously increased in size and as a percentage of the total U.S. population. The foreign-born population quadrupled after 1970, reaching 40.0 million by 2010, and about 13 percent of the total population – or one in eight – were foreign-born.

            Once again, the country is approaching a percentage of foreign-born not seen since the late 1800s and early 1900s. Will this proportion continue to increase, perhaps exceeding the high of nearly 15 percent achieved in both 1890 and 1910?”



            And just for the record, my issues with immigration are about domestic labor markets, global war, and economics, not race.


            • #408426
              • Total Posts: 1,440

              But the sense of the report is it’s bad that fewer people are being born. The human race is in no danger of dying out. We could lose half the population of the world and still be considered over-populated. The idea from the story that the world will lose only one billion by the end of this century is hard to swallow. More likely it will be multiple billions due to climate change and the trashing of the biosphere. Financial concerns about being able to afford having children will be the least of anyone’s woes.

              Who are you? | What do you want? | Why are you here? | Where are you going? | Do you have anything worth living for? | Who do you serve and who do you trust?

              • #408534
                Cold Mountain Trail
                • Total Posts: 12,042

                That may well be.  But that’s the future, the stats are what’s been happening for the last 40 years.

                We don’t know the future and we barely know the past.

                Most of the world outside of africa is now at zpg.

                Coronavirus is likely reducing those levels of birth as we speak.

                And killing old people.

                But the rich, who use most of the world’s resources or set policies that consume them

                Will most likely do just fine.

                They’re having just as many children as always.

                Buffett & Gates both have 3.

    • #408414
      Ohio Barbarian
      • Total Posts: 19,954

      For most, having children is a guaranteed ticket to an even worse standard of living than what they have now. One can hardly blame them.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #408436
      retired liberal
      • Total Posts: 3,747

      We have far exceeded this number. So we have man made climate change, COVID-19 and other diseases, many other species going extinct on a daily basis and more…
      With our numbers, when the oil run out, we are fucked.

      We are an arrogant species, believing our fantasy based "facts" are better than the other person's fake facts.
      If you are wrong, it will be because you are not cynical enough.
      Both major political parties are special interest groups enabling each other for power and money, at the expense of the people they no longer properly serve…
      Always wear a proper mask when out and about. The life you save could be both yours and mine.

    • #408444
      • Total Posts: 1,842

      Oh, yes it is a crisis! But be sure you do not pass the $15 wage bill because you do not care that this crisis is about being able to afford the future!


    • #408448
      NV Wino
      • Total Posts: 7,051

      Pre pandemic. They had just renovated with state of the art equipment two years prior. Then someone realized the unit wasn’t making money. Whoops. Having a baby today? Hold that thought, you need to drive 40 miles south to have it.

      “As we act, let us not become the evil that we deplore.” Barbara Lee
      “Politicians and pro athletes: The only people who still get paid when they lose.” William Rivers Pitt

    • #408457
      • Total Posts: 1,566

      or the next step is the Earth trying to survive. Harry Harrison’s Deathworld. (AIDS, ebola, COVID-19, climate change. What’s next?)

    • #408459
      • Total Posts: 904

      … declining birth rates would be cause for celebration.

    • #408532
      • Total Posts: 1,763

      I’ve already accepted that I will not have any(as far as I know).

      I have nieces and nephews, they will just get whatever I accumulate in my life.  I am happy enough to know this.

      Besides, why would I bring a new life in this world?  It’s hard enough, and actually, I feel like my time is passed.  I will NOT want to raise a child through college to my 60’s/70’s.  Doctor’s say that my levels are normal for my age, and with the amount of chronic pain I am already experiencing at this age… they call this normal?  Forget it.

    • #408543
      • Total Posts: 1,287

      …or real as I see it.

      As a citizen of the U.S., I am sure that my perspective throughout this response will be skewed.

      Historically/Prehistorically ones kids took over the hunter/gathering or farming or mearchanting-(whatever the family buisness was), and supported their elders.

      In todays Westernized/Modernised economies this has become difficult.

      One is now, by and large expected to put aside one’s own pension for old age.

      Due to our good friend Capitalism, costs of living keep going up, often beyond what one put away for one’s retirements.

      One could factor in medical bills as well. These are a whole magnitude of nightmare for the present family.

      Furthermore, one’s children are not expected to care for their parents into their elder years as they once did.

      Conversely, younger adults are finding it harder and harder to fund having kids-kids who are not expected to return that favor when they themselves become adults.

      These young adults can see the struggles their parents face.

      Their choice of having kids or supplement/supporting their parents in order to keep them alive is now a consideration.

      This global societal change is one cause, as I see it for the declining birthrates.

      Surely for those declines in the U.S.

      The second reason, perhaps the greater of the two, is that more and more women are becoming educated.

      I believe that there are plenty of studies that demonstrates how an educated woman has better control over her own body, (as opposed to men having control over it).

      This translates into the woman making her own informed decisions regarding birth control and/or having kids.

      Well that’s how I see things at any rate. Until we have more resources that are accessible to the masses AND we have a means to care for our elderly that does not break the family bank, I see these declining birthrates as a good thing.

    • #408591
      • Total Posts: 3,361

      A crisis for who? Not the earth, that’s for sure.

      All governments lie to their citizen's, but only Americans believe theirs.

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