Final Electoral Map with Popular Vote Margin per State

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    • #377376
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 22,626

      This is how it’s turned out. The key is dark blue or red, Biden or Trump by 10% or more. Medium blue or darker pink, Biden or Trump by 5 to 9.9%. Light blue or pink, Biden or Trump by less than 5%. The Vichy Dem win is thin. Very thin. As Trump’s was in the Electoral College four years ago.

       

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #377382
      elias39
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 5,325

      A trump state with 2 angry Dems?

    • #377384
      elias39
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 5,325

      Here’s the deal you dog-faced pony-soldier. What’s the significance?

    • #377385
      leftcoast mountains
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 6,110
      • #377474
        Jim Lane
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 938

        @leftcoastmountains

        I distinctly remember that, not many months ago, there were multiple posts on JPR, stating with certainty that Biden would lose.  (I don’t remember whether you were one of those prognosticators, but I know they were here.)

        I think — with less confidence — that some people on DU “knew” that Biden/Harris would get at least 350 electoral votes.  Some of them may have gone up to 400.

        You want to dismiss DUers as being stupid?  At the end of October, @ohiobarbarian posted a poll — link — inviting predictions for this year.  Given wide bands of possible results, a majority of those responding got it wrong.  (Approximately 37% had Biden winning by a substantial margin or a landslide, while 18% had him not winning the electoral vote.)  That was for an election that was then less than one week away.

        A huge factor this year was Trump’s inept response to the COVID-19 crisis.  Just a year ago, no one could have foreseen that.  Yet, without it, Trump might well have won re-election.

        The old saying has it that, in American politics, overnight is a long time and a week is forever.  The lesson I draw is that it’s essentially impossible to know the outcome of the 2024 election this far in advance.

        • #377531
          Ohio Barbarian
          Moderator
          • Total Posts: 22,626

          @jimlane More JPRers picked a narrow Biden victory over the other five options. So if JPR had a first past the post voting system, then the site got it right.

          How unsurprising that you did not point that out.

          It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

          You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

          • #377549
            Jim Lane
            Participant
            • Total Posts: 938

            @ohiobarbarian

            Yes, a plurality.  IOW, in predicting an election that was less than a week away, a full 45% got it right.  It was even a majority if you ignore the categories you set up and instead look only at predictions of who would win.

            It obviously follows that the geniuses of JPR can give us reliable predictions about an election that’s four years away.  Deriding that notion was of course, the context of my post.

            I pointed out that there was quite a bit of certainty here, earlier this year, that Biden would lose.  IIRC, you were one of those taking the more sensible position that it could go either way.  On that basis, I’ll hazard a guess that you agree with me that it’s a wee bit early to be calling the 2024 winner with certainty.

            • #377620
              Ohio Barbarian
              Moderator
              • Total Posts: 22,626

              @jimlane They did better than the so-called experts in the polling industry and the media, and I doubt any of us are getting paid hundreds of thousands or millions a year to make those guesses.

              As for 2024, I’m not even willing to predict that there will be an election in 2024. That is how uncertain the times in which we live have become.

              It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

              You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

              • #377682
                Jim Lane
                Participant
                • Total Posts: 938

                @ohiobarbarian

                What I actually wrote (it’s depressing how often on JPR I have to use a phrase like that) was that there were some people on JPR who expressed absolute certainty about the outcome of an election that was still months in the future.  I referred to those who posted here that there was no way Biden would win.

                I also pointed out that there were some people on DU who were absolutely certain of an impending Democratic landslide.  I’ll add that there were some people on Free Republic who were absolutely certain of an impending Trump landslide.  If you consider pointing out such errors to be condescending, then you should bear in mind that at least I’m an equal-opportunity condescender.  I just have little patience with people of any ideological stripe who let their preferences color their predictions.

                My own prediction for 2024 was clear: It’s too soon to tell.  That was the context of my pointing out how things can change.  On that subject, you and I largely agree.  I think it overwhelmingly likely (say, > 99%) that there will be an election in 2024.  I gather that you’d set the probability lower.  Then, of course, there’s the view at Free Republic.  Most of them seem to think that, if Biden becomes President, there will be an election in 2024 but it will be a total sham, with millions of illegals voting and rampant fraud.  Getting a second term for Trump is the last chance to save America as we know it.  Some of them think that President Biden will trample the First Amendment and close down Free Republic, which IMO would be a shame, because it’s such a rich source of comedy.

                • #377704
                  Ohio Barbarian
                  Moderator
                  • Total Posts: 22,626

                  @jimlane Right now I’d say there is at least a 25% chance there will be no election in 2024. It all depends on what the federal government does. If it does enough, there will be no military coup or revolution. If it doesn’t, there will be. I don’t know what enough is right now, either. All I know is it is very possible the corrupted federal government will fail, and if it fails, there will be dire consequences for the people running it.

                  I will no doubt change my best guesstimate of the odds by next summer. I don’t know what’s going to happen in the next 8 months, but whatever does is very important this time.

                  It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

                  You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

      • #377478
        surrealAmerican
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 1,111

        … by congressional district. All other states are “winner take all”.

        ( meant to be a reply to @elias39 )

    • #377421
      ColorsoftheRainbow
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 689

      @OhioBarbarian,

      According to Dave Leip’s Atlas for U.S. Elections, but with the results not complete (any states with outstanding votes), here is where the states came in (with tracking of cumulative electoral votes more for the Democrats):

      Joe Biden [D–Delaware]—Pickup!
      District of Columbia +87.14 (cumulative 03 electoral votes)
      01. Vermont +35.41 (cum. 06)
      02. Massachusetts +33.08 (cum. 17)
      03. California +30.75 (cum. 72)
      04. Maryland +30.43 (cum. 82)
      05. Hawaii +29.48 (cum. 86)
      06. Rhode Island +20.59 (cum. 90)
      07. Connecticut +20.04 (cum. 97)
      08. Washington +19.53 (cum. 109)
      09. Delaware +18.98 (cum. 112)
      10. New Jersey +16.50 (cum. 126)
      11. Oregon +16.17 (cum. 133)
      12. Illinois +13.76 (cum. 153)
      13. Colorado +13.50 (cum. 162)
      14. New York +12.74 (cum. 191)
      15. New Mexico +10.67 (cum. 196)
      16. Virginia +10.03 (cum. 209)
      Maine’s 1st Congressional District [TBD] (cum. 210)
      17. Maine [statewide] +8.70 (cum. 212)
      18. New Hampshire +7.37 (cum. 216)
      19. Minnesota +7.12 (cum. 226)
      U.S. Popular Vote +3.31
      20. Nevada +2.71 (cum. 232)
      * 21. Michigan +2.66 (cum. 248)
      * 22. Pennsylvania +0.71 (cum. 268)
      * 23. Wisconsin +0.62 (cum. 278—Apparent Tipping-Point State!)
      * — Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District [TBD] (cum. 279)
      * 24. Arizona +0.38 (cum. 290)
      * 25. Georgia +0.28 (cumulative 306 electoral votes)

      Donald Trump [R–Florida, incumbent—Unseated]
      (26) 25. North Carolina (–1.34; cum. 321 | 232)
      (27) 24. Florida (–3.37; cum. 350 | 217)
      (28) 23. Texas (–5.78; cum. 388 | 188)
      (29) 22. Ohio (–8.16; cum. 406 | 150)
      (30) 21. Iowa (–8.22; cum. 412 | 132)
      Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (TBD; cum. 413 | 126)
      (31) 20. South Carolina (–11.68; cum. 422 | 125)
      (32) 19. Kansas (–15.13; cum. 428 | 116)
      (33) 18. Indiana (–15.48; cum. 439 | 110)
      (34) 17. Missouri (–15.57; cum. 449 | 99)
      (35) 16. Montana (–16.37; cum. 452 | 89)
      (36) 15. Alaska (–17.83; cum. 455 | 86)
      (37) 14. Louisiana (–18.61; cum. 463 | 83)
      Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District (TBD; cum. 464 | 75)
      (38) 13. Nebraska [statewide] (–19.39; cum. 466 | 74)
      (39) 12. Mississippi (–20.58; cum. 472 | 72)
      (40) 11. Utah (–20.68; cum. 478 | 66)
      (41) 10. Tennessee (–23.32; cum. 489 | 60)
      (42) 09. Alabama (–25.70; cum. 498 | 49)
      (43) 08. Kentucky (–25.95; cum. 506 | 40)
      (44) 07. South Dakota (–26.16; cum. 509 | 32)
      (45) 06. Arkansas (–28.01; cum. 515 | 29)
      (46) 05. Idaho (–30.74; cum. 519 | 23)
      (47) 04. Oklahoma (–33.09; cum. 526 | 19)
      (48) 03. North Dakota (–33.35; cum. 529 | 12)
      (49) 02. West Virginia (–39.05; cum. 534 | 09)
      (50) 01. Wyoming (–43.38; cum. 537 | 04)
      Nebraska’s 3rd Congressional District (TBD; cum. 538 | 01)

      * 2020 Democratic Pickups

      The numbers are not final. For example: For the Democrats, usually New York ranks as one of their Top 10 best-performed states. Somewhere between, say, No. 04 to No. 07. So, this would later need to get revised.

    • #377539
      EvilLurker
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 40

      After a while I pretty much ignored most of the polls except for Trafalgar. I think they were the only one to have it right in 2016.  I thought it could go either way with Biden maxing out at 290 if he did win. Turns out all the states I thought were up for grabs went to Biden. Never expected Georgia to turn blue.

    • #377664
      Bernin4U
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 514

      In which case I have a lovely bridge for sale, cheap.

      No way in hell Biden got this turnout.

      • #377703
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 22,626

        This was a huge turnout, and regional differences and the rural/urban divide were stark.

        And the Al-Qaeda flew planes into tall buildings on 9/11/01, and JFK was killed by a lone gunman. I buy those two as well. @bernin4u And Russiagate was a hoax invented by a pair of alcoholic Russian expats living in Cyprus. Really, that one’s true.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

        • #377749
          Bernin4U
          Participant
          • Total Posts: 514

          But they did for Biden?

          And that despite no enthusiasm and no ground game, Biden got record turnouts just because Trump? Is there any precedent for this, considering Lo2E means (and usually only ever succeeds with) a low turnout?

          • #377875
            JonLP
            Participant
            • Total Posts: 3,496

            As far as lone gunman I can’t believe anyone believes that.

            JFK Files: Cuban Intelligence Was in Contact With Oswald, Praised His Shooting Ability

            1) The KGB believed there was a well-organized conspiracy behind JFK’s assassination—possibly involving LBJ

            In December 1966, FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover forwarded a memo to the White House that described the reaction of Soviet and Communist Party officials to Kennedy’s assassination. The memo stated that according to the FBI’s source, Communist officials believed there was a well-organized “ultraright” conspiracy behind the assassination.

            2) But—Oswald was overheard speaking to a KGB official just two months before the assassination

            On September 28, 1963, the CIA intercepted a call Oswald made to the Russian embassy in Mexico City. On the call, he can be heard speaking in “broken Russian” to Consul Valeriy Vladimirovich Kostikova, an “identified KGB officer,” according to the document.

            3) An alleged Cuban intelligence officer knew Oswald, and praised his shooting abilities

            The transcript of a 1967 cablegram recounted how a man named Angel Ronaldo Luis Salazar was interrogated at the Cuban embassy in Mexico City the year before by Ramiro Jesus Abreu Quintana, “an identified Cuban intelligence officer,” about Kennedy’s assassination. During the interrogation, Salazar claimed he remarked that Oswald must have been a good shot. According to him, Abreu replied “Oh, he was quite good….I knew him.”

            (Snip)

            6) A mysterious man known as “El Mexicano” (believed to be a Cuban rebel army captain) may have accompanied Oswald in Mexico City

            A CIA document containing handwritten notes indicated Oswald may have been accompanied in Mexico by a man dubbed “El Mexicano,” who is believed to have been a Cuban rebel army captain who later defected to the United States. Identified by another source as Francisco Rodriguez Tamayo, he was said in another newly released document to be the head of an anti-Castro training camp in Louisiana.

            https://www.history.com/news/what-the-jfk-assassination-files-say-declassified-release-oswald

             

            Also Russia really does have a FSB & GRU and sometimes they interfere with the US.

             

            Edit: this was meant as a reply to OB.

             

            How the CIA Came to Doubt the Official Story of JFK’s Murder

            (Snip)

            Specifically, key CIA officials were concerned by the mid-1970s that the agency, the FBI, the Secret Service and the White House commission led by Chief Justice Earl Warren had never followed up on important clues about Oswald’s contact with foreign agents, including diplomats and spies for the Communist governments of Cuba and the Soviet Union, who might have been aware of his plans to kill Kennedy and even encouraged the plot. (There is no credible evidence cited in the documents released so far that Cuban leader Fidel Castro or other foreign leaders had any personal role in ordering Kennedy’s murder.)

            The CIA documents also offer tantalizing speculation about the chain of events in late 1963 that explained Oswald’s motives for killing Kennedy, which have previously never been established with certainty—how he may have become enraged after reading a detailed article in his hometown newspaper in New Orleans in September suggesting that his hero Castro had been targeted for assassination by the Kennedy administration. According to that theory, Oswald, who had rifle training in the Marine Corps, then set out to seek vengeance on Castro’s behalf—to kill Kennedy before the American president managed to kill the Cuban leader.

            If that proved true, it would have raised a terrible question for the CIA: Was it possible that JFK’s assassination was, directly or indirectly, blowback for the spy agency’s plots to kill Castro? It would eventually be acknowledged the CIA had, in fact, repeatedly tried to assassinate Castro, sometimes in collusion with the Mafia, throughout Kennedy’s presidency. The CIA’s arsenal of weapons against Castro included a fungus-infected scuba suit, a poison-filled hypodermic needle hidden in a pen—and even an exploding cigar. The Warren Commission, never told about the CIA’s Castro plots, mostly ducked the question of Oswald’s motives, other than saying in its final report that he had expressed a “hatred for American society.”

            JFK historians and the nation’s large army of private assassination researchers are still scrambling to make sense of the latest batch of tens of thousands of pages of previously secret CIA and FBI documents that were unsealed last week by the National Archives. The documents—441 files that had previously been withheld entirely, along with 3,369 other documents that had been previously released only in part—were made public under terms of a 1992 law that requires the unsealing of all JFK assassination-related documents by October, the law’s 25-year deadline.

            https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/03/jfk-assassination-lone-gunman-cia-new-files-215449

            Let this radicalize you rather than lead you to despair - Mariame Kaba

            Like many public systems, GOP want to rip the battery out + say the whole car doesn’t work, so they can sell it for parts - AOC

            • #377880
              djean111
              Participant
              • Total Posts: 6,995

              Poppy Bush was a scary scary man.  Also, that is what the CIA does.  And attributing JFK to Russia is just more Russiagate.  IMO.

              America is not a country, it's just a business. (Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly)

              Everything I post is just my opinion, and, honestly, I would love to be wrong.

              "black flag" is an inadvertent mash-up of black ops and false flag. . I think it is accurate, and I will keep it. Thanks to those who pointed it out!

              • #377881
                JonLP
                Participant
                • Total Posts: 3,496

                Oswald really did go to Soviet embassy in Mexico City and the CIA has a fake double body photograph of it.

                 

                I have no idea who it is as I can see multiple suspects based on the evidence but in any case I don’t think it is a lone gunman especially since Oswald never got a fair trial.

                Let this radicalize you rather than lead you to despair - Mariame Kaba

                Like many public systems, GOP want to rip the battery out + say the whole car doesn’t work, so they can sell it for parts - AOC

    • #377821
      sadoldgirl
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,510

      The real issue is not who won, but how much rigging was

      done. After the 16 primary showed early on discrepancies

      between exit polls and machine/scanner or “official” votes,

      the exit polls were stopped. None of us or the public know

      the software installed in these contraptions, nor are we told

      who exactly installed them when and where. Thus all we get

      is what the oligarchy wants us to see. If you still believe in a

      democratic election, you deceive yourself imo. Think: Biden

      was #5 during the first primaries and Harris was last in standing.

      All that changed extremely fast. Do you really believe that

      people changed their minds that quickly? Sorry, but I don’t.

      Cheating has gone on this way probably for decades, but the

      16 democratic primaries made it obvious.

      • #377837
        EvilLurker
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 40

        Trump tweeted about Dominion voting machines today and Fox News is now talking about it. Trumpers are going crazy on social media. Vulnerabilities in voting software is new to them. Apparently they don’t realize this discussion started in left-leaning forums almost 20 years ago when irregularities seemed to favor the right.

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