For Scientists, Path to Covid Endgame Remains Uncertain
- Total Posts: 685
Sat, September 4, 2021, 7:20 PM
It’s basically over already. It will end this October. Or maybe it won’t be over till next spring, or late next year, or two or three years down the road.
From the most respected epidemiologists to public health experts who have navigated past disease panics, from polemicists to political partisans, there are no definitive answers to the central question in American life: As a Drudge Report headline put it recently, “is it ever going to end?”
With children returning to classrooms, in many cases for the first time in 18 months, and as the highly contagious delta variant and spotty vaccination uptake send case numbers and deaths shooting upward, many Americans wonder what exactly has to happen before life can return to something that looks and feels like 2019.
The answers come in a kaleidoscopic cavalcade of scenarios, some suggested with utmost humility, others with mathematical confidence: The pandemic will end because deaths finally drop to about the same level we’re accustomed to seeing from the flu each year. Or it will end when most kids are vaccinated. Or it will end because Americans are finally exhausted by all the restrictions on daily life.
September 6, 2021 at 6:07 PM #444298David the GnomeParticipant
- Total Posts: 3,230
In my neck of the woods there aren’t any. I see signs on business doors saying “masks are recommended” but I rarely see anyone wearing one. Where I’m at, businesses and schools are open and only schools have a mask mandate – due to a recent outbreak.
So what restrictions are so confining right now? Maybe there are some in other places, but in my town in Maine the only specific ones are wearing masks at schools and the hospital.
We aren’t going to get enough vaccinated for herd immunity. State and federal leadership is cowardly and corrupt. It’ll be a half assed set of regulations that vary by town, state, school district. Bunch of bull shit.
So I suppose I generally agree that there won’t be an end to it. Good days and bad days and years, right up until we get a variant nasty enough to kill a lot more people. Or a new virus.
I have no faith that this thing will be overcome. It is a new fact of life now – like the flu, just more deadly.
September 6, 2021 at 11:42 PM #444382djean111Participant
- Total Posts: 6,445
and given how Covid keeps evolving – I think we are now at the Mu variation. And the vaccines are not all that effective, really, they just lessen symptoms. They are not vaccines. In addition, Pfizer-ized countries do not seem to even condone early treatment – it is vaccines and either hope to get better on one’s own, or undergo apocalyptic treatment in a hospital. I don’t think herd immunity was ever the objective, really, just endless years of boosters and yer on your own until perhaps too late. Hospitals still get extra money for Covid patients, I believe. I am just following the money.
America is not a country, it's just a business. (Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly)
Everything I post is just my opinion, and, honestly, I would love to be wrong.
September 7, 2021 at 2:59 PM #444453MizzGrizzParticipant
- Total Posts: 3,530
..djean111.You usually are.
The whole idea of herd immunity was absurd…in a country this large and as artificially divided by the media as we.Fox said don’t wear masks,MSNBC said wear them,and never the twain shall meet.
If the original lockdown had been extended,we could perhaps have gone back to normal life right away with little fear of a variant..but Big Business had to keep going!
September 7, 2021 at 3:28 PM #444455Average GazooParticipant
- Total Posts: 563
in those who were first vaccinated, eg. January 2021. The variants (evolution of covid) don’t seem to be what is causing the fade.
20 to 50% of the population has innate immunity to Covid19 but titers are not being used to identify these people. In this outbreak and in future outbreaks titers would be a tool to help identify who is most at risk and who isn’t.
If we combine innate immunity + survivors + those with effective (recent) vaccinations we should have a number between 50% and 90% of the population with immunity to covid19. But we are flying blind because there is no testing for variants in the US and no tracking of breakthrough cases. This is a bad precedent for future viruses. Much like Afghanistan, policy and spending is controlled by the vendors whose goals are an on-going stream of income, not victory.
Be the Change
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