Fun with statistics and vaccine efficacy

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    • #421896
      lownslow
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    • #421901
      GZeusH
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      • Total Posts: 4,259

      I “don’t know” what they “mean” when “every other” predicate or object in “their sentences” is in “quotation marks”.

      Corporate America consists of totalitarian entities laser-focused on short-term greed.

      • #422180
        lownslow
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 833

        I think they showed (at least to me) that the 95% efficacy clsims were misleading at best. I thought others might find that in itself important. So, to be clear, are only pfiser approved articles allowed on jpr? Is there a list of approved sources i may peruse?

        • #422182
          GZeusH
          Participant
          • Total Posts: 4,259

          However, RFK jr. is a known anti-vax crank, and his opinions on the topic are almost worthless.

          I do trust that Pfizer will do the capitalist thing and distort information in any way necessary to help their bottom line.  Watch them come up with a monthly subscription plan for a vaccine based on the Comcast model.

          Corporate America consists of totalitarian entities laser-focused on short-term greed.

    • #421915
      HassleCat
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      • Total Posts: 7,252

      They claim you can lie with statistics, and they illustrate this by lying with statistics.

      • #422181
        lownslow
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 833

        Thank you for reading the article. I can tell you studied it thouroughly. Im very interested in the lies you found, please elaborate. Thanks again for reading

        • #422193
          Jim Lane
          Participant
          • Total Posts: 865

          @lownslow

          I’m not getting into whether these points should be classified as lies. Also, I have not studied the article thoroughly and researched the vaccine issue carefully. These are just a couple things that struck me on a first, casual reading.

          The author writes that

          the two companies’ COVID vaccines barely make a dent at all, reducing someone’s risk of experiencing COVID symptoms (the clinical trials’ endpoint) by less than 1%. This is the practical number that people are likely to care about most.

          For my part, no, I don’t care most about the likelihood of experiencing COVID symptoms. I care most about the likelihood of experiencing severe symptoms. If severity is defined as “causing death or requiring hospitalization” (which strikes me as a good definition), then my impression from what I vaguely recall reading is that the vaccines are very effective. Specifically, in the real-world experience available now that millions of people have been vaccinated (not just the small clinical trials that this article relies on), the risk of such a severe outcome is substantially reduced. If I get infected and experience symptoms, but the result of the vaccine is that I have a little sniffle for a few days instead of needing a ventilator (or a hearse), then yay for the vaccine.

          Second, the article quotes this contention, from a blogger who had no information about the observed effects of widespread vaccination because he was writing last December (although the article doesn’t  trouble to mention that fact):

          “The risk reduction in absolute terms [was] only 0.7%, from an already very low risk of 0.74% [in the placebo group] to a minimal risk of 0.04% [in the vaccine group].”

          I think that word “only” is dubious. If 200,000,000 American adults get vaccinated – a number I pulled out of the air because it made the math easier – then the vaccines will produce a reduction of “only” 1.4 million cases in the United States alone. I personally consider that significant.

          • #422197
            HassleCat
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            • Total Posts: 7,252

            @jimlane You are more polite than I am. I regard the article as dangerous propaganda from a discredited website.

        • #422195
          HassleCat
          Participant
          • Total Posts: 7,252

          @lownslow This is exactly what high income earners do when we discuss income taxes. They complain about the theoretical rate being too high. Then, when it’s reveled they pay a true rate lower than the average person, they switch to the gross amount. “I paid a million dollaes in taxes!” This is what the article does with the discussion of absolute vs. relative risk calculations. Their pitch amounts to, “Your risk of getting the virus doesnot drop as much as you think if you believe the vaccine makers’ claims.” That’s true in a general sense because we know calculation of relative risk is almost more optimistic, sometimes wildly more optimistic, than estimations of absolute risk. The article tries to calculate efficacy using “unconfirmed” cases of Covid, which is pretty funny coming from somene purporting to show that Pfizer played fast and loose. The biggest and most dangerous lie is the part where the article tries to convince the reader that the vaccine is dangerous, based on social media reports, including the fact that some website has 120,000 followers. Here is the crux of the matter, the reason this pseudo-science was cooked up in the first place: fear mongering. Start out with a reasonable discussion of risk analysis, then lead the reader into the alternative reality of social media speculation. The article goes far beyond merely raising questions about how the vaccine trials calculate risk. It is propaganda that seeks to infuence people to avoid the vaccine.

          • #422202
            lownslow
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            • Total Posts: 833

            Now thats a good, in depth reply! Gives me something to research. My problem is when the msm gangs up and pronounces an issue settled ( kennedy, mlk, 911, 2000 election, 2020 election, various primaries, etc), my spidey sense tingles. Im gonna keep digging. If you guys want me to share it, cool, if it needs to be in ct section, cool. Im no expert on rfk just because msm attacks him means nothing to me. They attack lee camp and jimmy dore so,,,,it doesnt seem like hes doing it for the money, idk. If you guys know of anny, any ‘reputable’ source of whom has the balls to question the vaccines just a little, please share

            • #422219
              Jim Lane
              Participant
              • Total Posts: 865

              @lownslow

              I think a key point is one made by @davidthegnome:

              As far as I know, with Pfizer, moderna and the Jansen & Jansen, no one has died of covid19 after being fully vaccinated.

              My own guess is that it’s not no one.  My vague impression is that a handful of people have died.  But either way, the vaccines have cut the mortality way, way, way down.

              That would be a point worth researching.  If the anti-vaxxers think this gain is a hoax, and they have some theory about falsification of official statistics around the world, do they actually have a case, or is it tin-foil-hattery?

            • #422222
              JonLP
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              • Total Posts: 3,496

              They actually ignore him. They can do an hour long hit piece on him if they wanted to. The MSM mentions Lee Camp even less.

              This is the last time I remember anything close to the MSM mentioning Dore but that was because he was smearing Biden. Dore’s source for the smear was a right wing troll on Twitter.

              Facebook and other social media platforms let a manipulated Biden “blackface” video circulate for months

              (Snip)

              In mid-July, comedian Jimmy Dore — in a since-deleted YouTube video titled “Young Black Voters Don’t Want Joe Biden!” — aired the manipulated clip, calling the event “a blackface affair for a bunch of rich white people,” according to The Washington Post’s Dave Weigel. The video received thousands of Facebook engagements, according to the social media tracking tool BuzzSumo. Around that same time, some Twitter accounts were again uploading the video on Twitter, including an account that falsely accused Biden of being in a “‘Black Face’ skit.” That version of the clip has more than 85,000 views, and the account cited Dore’s video for the clip.

              https://www.mediamatters.org/facebook/facebook-and-other-social-media-platforms-let-manipulated-biden-blackface-video-circulate

              If people have credibility problems there is sometimes a reason for that.

              Let this radicalize you rather than lead you to despair - Mariame Kaba

              Like many public systems, GOP want to rip the battery out + say the whole car doesn’t work, so they can sell it for parts - AOC

    • #421927
      retired liberal
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      • Total Posts: 4,276

      They are spending way too much on lobbyists in Congress. Why, if they were a Honest, forthright company?
      The money they spend on lobbying comes from what you pay for drugs and health services.

      Pfizer, Amgen, Lilly spent most to lobby Congress, study finds

      Dive Brief:

      • Pharmaceutical and health product makers spent more than any other industry on lobbying the federal government between 1999 and 2018, scoring key victories along the way, a study in JAMA Internal Medicine found.
      • Collectively, drugmakers and other health sector companies outside insurance spent $4.7 billion on lobbying Congress and federal agencies, and another $1.3 billion on state and national campaign contributions during that time, according to the study.
      • Pfizer, Amgen and Eli Lilly were the biggest corporate spenders, with Pfizer alone accounting for $219 million in lobbying expenses and $23 million in campaign contributions over the time period studied. PhRMA, the drug lobby, ranked the highest overall, with $422 million spent on lobbying.
        https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/pharma-lobbying-congress-jama-study/573496/

      We are an arrogant species, believing our fantasy based "facts" are better than the other person's fake facts.
      If you are wrong, it will be because you are not cynical enough.
      The older we get, the less "Life in Prison" is a deterrent.
      Always wear a proper mask when out and about. The life you save could be both yours and mine.

    • #422191
      David the Gnome
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      • Total Posts: 3,230

      Of the 95% claims.  I think we need more time and study before we can rely on the numbers we are reading.

      The vaccines definitely work though.  As far as I know, with Pfizer, moderna and the Jansen & Jansen, no one has died of covid19 after being fully vaccinated.

      Of course, I could be wrong – and pre existing conditions could still make covid19 the straw that breaks the camel’s back in some cases.  Still, hell of a lot better to have it than not to, in my opinion.

      I don’t trust the corporations and the profit motive is despicable, but I am inclined to trust doctors, nurses and others involved in production and distribution.  Believe me, if this stuff was bull shit we’d have a lot of whistle blowers – and not just quacks telling us they’re putting chips in our bloodstream.

      A new variant could make them less effective, but until there is reason not to I’ll trust those I know in healthcare.

      • #422237
        Cold Mountain Trail
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        • Total Posts: 12,932

        Problem is, every ‘authority’ is compromised (by past lies, the profit motive, or politics) + there are deliberate liars & bots everywhere on social media in addition to ordinary people’s opinions….

        Plus, all this interaction is not face to face = its ruder & more careless

        GIGO applies

        Too much information, too little trustworthy information, and too little well-explained & vetted information

        It’s purposeful in many quarters imho

      • #422347
        Carolina
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        • Total Posts: 236

        On 4/16/2021, the CDC reported 5,800 breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections in those who had been fully vaccinated with 396 hospitalizations and 74 deaths.

        On 4/26/2021, the breakthrough infections had risen to 9,245 total with 835 hospitalizations and 132 deaths.

        And all of this in the almost 5 months (on 5/11/2021) since these still investigational, EUA only vaccines were released to the general public.

        Now the CDC has announced that henceforth, it will only release the numbers of breakthrough cases resulting in hospitalization and death, thus skewing the data for public perusal. Egregious

    • #422203
      lownslow
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    • #422205
      lownslow
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 833

      Look how many times we have been lied to by msm (daily). When do they ever tell the truth? It reminds me of lucy with the football

    • #422207
      lownslow
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 833

      Im not anti vax. Im anti big pharma. If something bad happens to a covid vax recipient, you have no recourse. Whay are the msm suppressing the news about ivervectin? How many “noble lies” has Faucci told? The numbers are going up greatly reguarding breakthrough cases repoted to vaers so they are changing the reporting criteria. Why?

    • #422226
      Average Gazoo
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      • Total Posts: 563

      Because my life depends on it. We have no integrated health care system in the USA so the response was very market driven. The response was $$$$ subsidies for connected businesses and a few small checks for workers.

      I followed the virus from its emergence in China mid-February 2020 and saw the US do nothing significant to prepare for its arrival here. Possibly it was already in the US. Our Congress critters sold their stocks before the confirmations that ‘yes Covid19 is spreading in the US.’

      As factories shut down in China there was a shortage of PPE worldwide. None or almost no PPE is made in the US so the CDC told us all not to wear masks. They told us instead to “wash your hands and sing happy birthday” even though there is no evidence that the virus has spread through contact. Taiwan and S Korea did the best contact tracing. Totally authoritarian stuff, not one case of “smear transmission.” So why was the US government telling us to slather on the Purell? Your guess is as good as mine but I do know that Purell and similar products are made in the US and production was easy to ramp up and cash in.

      March of 2020, after adjusting her stock portfolio, Nancy Pelosi held a maskless press conference in San Francisco’s Chinatown to call us all racists. She told us to go shopping — just like after 9/11 and every other threat to the US economy — the answer is “buy stuff.”

      Meanwhile I cancelled air travel, sewed 5 masks (2 for me, one for my senior neighbor and 2 to donate to front line workers) then I wrote my Last Will and Testament. The government was doing even worse than I expected. I expected them to do almost nothing but did not expect them to make the impact even worse by discouraging masks and encouraging casual shopping trips and tourism.

      Over a year later the CDC finally admits that ‘Covid is transmitted via airborne’ means. They have ruined the credibility. Trumpers never trusted them but they have eroded trust among all with their terrible messaging and outright lies.

      The CDC refuses to recommend that Americans get healthier, boost Vitamin D intake or take any preventative steps except…

      Vaccines. As expected the “anti-vax” demonization is under way. Attacking not the behavior of avoiding vaccination but the people themselves. After destroying the trust they needed to steer us through this, the CDC is going to vilify those who no longer trust them. And they are going to encourage well meaning people to do likewise. It is like they believe that the way to convert people who fear authoritarianism is to use even more authoritarianism. Not going to work.

      I used to work in data driven strategics. The February polls asking Americans if they planned on getting vaccinated had about 55% saying “yes.” People lie to pollsters, they lean toward whatever the socially preferred answer is. Trump under-polled, do-you-go-to-church? over-polls, so “do you plan to get vaccinated?” very likely over-polls. 55% is a terrible number even if it is correct but likely the real percentage who do not want vaccination for themselves is 50% or higher.

      The NYTime right now says “34%” are fully vaccinated and locally you can get any vaccine you want right now, no waiting, no appt.

      My point is: We have a MAJOR trust issue on our hands. Vaccines work but many people do not trust the government, do not understand biology and do not respond positively to being demonized, censored and bullied. A different strategy would work much better but my prediction is they will ride the “shut up and get stuck you dangerous anti-vax crank!” strategy into the ground because it is messaging that was developed by Pharma long before Covid19 and corporations have the most control of our response to this pandemic.

      Be the Change

      • #422227
        Average Gazoo
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 563

        we will never achieve herd immunity on this so a better strategy is:
        – boost Vitamin D intake, especially in the most vulnerable
        – continue with vaccines but move the emphasis to treatment, something like a “Z-pack” that will knock Covid down as early as possible
        – greatly expand testing and monitoring
        – re-evaluate security protocols and the dangers of gain of function research at virology labs worldwide
        – prepare the public and the US healthcare system to do better with the next pandemic
        – replace the messaging team at the CDC with professionals from private industry who are used to answering for success or failure and who have decades of experience in modifying public behaviors via messaging and branding

        Be the Change

        • #422236
          retired liberal
          Participant
          • Total Posts: 4,276

          Therefore it will not work on viruses.

          We are an arrogant species, believing our fantasy based "facts" are better than the other person's fake facts.
          If you are wrong, it will be because you are not cynical enough.
          The older we get, the less "Life in Prison" is a deterrent.
          Always wear a proper mask when out and about. The life you save could be both yours and mine.

          • #422243
            Average Gazoo
            Participant
            • Total Posts: 563

            of safe things with proven efficacy against covid19’s progression in the body — for example: bolus D, C, quercetin and NAC

            likely zinc (as in Z packs) would be in the mix here too but too much zinc can be problematic or toxic

            Be the Change

            • #422317
              Ohio Barbarian
              Moderator
              • Total Posts: 21,760

              When I had Covid symptoms before the lockdowns back in 2/2020, calcium magnesium zinc capsules helped me out a lot, and my stepdaughter as well. That’s all I know.

              It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

              You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

              • #422344
                Yanath
                Participant
                • Total Posts: 2,051

                I’ve read positive things about that from reputable sources.

                But if we had serious, uncorrupted, responsible public servants and policy makers serving our society, they would have prominent campaigns that promoted healthy living, including a primarily plant-based diet and regular excercise. If that was the case, covid-19 would be little more than a blip to our society or our healthcare system.

        • #422459
          eridani
          Participant
          • Total Posts: 9,978

          –deficient in Vitamin D.  (Though overdosing is not likely to be a problem, as it can be with Vitamin A).

          Jesus: Hey, Dad? God: Yes, Son? Jesus: Western civilization followed me home. Can I keep it? God: Certainly not! And put it down this minute--you don't know where it's been! Tom Robbins in Another Roadside Attraction

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