Herd Immunity

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    • #299809
      joentokyo
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      • Total Posts: 1,026

      https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/08/watch-perspectives-on-the-pandemic-2/

      WATCH: Perspectives on the Pandemic #2 “Social distancing and lockdown is the absolutely worst way to deal with an airborne respiratory virus”

      Journeyman Pictures sits down with Prof Knut Wittkowski to discuss lockdowns, social-distancing and the best way to handle the spread of a new disease.

      The Interviewer: John Kirby is the director of FOUR DIED TRYING, a feature documentary and series on the major assassinations of the 1960’s and their calamitous impact on the country. To join the struggle for justice for Dr. King, Malcolm X, and John and Robert Kennedy.

      The Interviewee: Professor Knut Wittkowski was head of The Rockefeller University’s Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design for 20 years.

      Follow Journeyman Pictures on youtube or visit their website for more of their award-winning factual content.

      “A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves” ~ French philosopher Bertrand de Jouvenel (1903-1987)

    • #299818
      N2Doc
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 7,559

      Because this advice kills those people. Lots of them.

    • #299819
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 14,723

      “Like all respiratory diseases it comes for two weeks…and then it’s gone.” I know that’s completely untrue because these things sometimes come back, as it tried to come back in China after Chinese who were abroad came home.

      This isn’t helpful information for dealing with the Covid 19 pandemic. This is saying that more people should get sick ASAP to get it over with and everybody can go back to work. It’s his opinion, so I’m moving it to General Discussion.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #299832
      joentokyo
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,026

      @ohiobarbarian


      @n2doc

      Professor Knut Wittkowski was head of The Rockefeller University’s Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design for 20 years.

      This scientist has more than thirty years experience in his field, but what does he know compared to people who get all their information from the MSM,

      As to your hope that I never have a health problem, I am eighty years old, and had a quintuple bypass in 2013. Yet I am not as panic stricken  you well informed individuals.

      “A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves” ~ French philosopher Bertrand de Jouvenel (1903-1987)

      • #299834
        N2Doc
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 7,559

        But there are plenty of people who are very knowledgeable in this area who disagree vehemently with him. I believe them, and I believe the evidence we have seen so far from places that have had strict social distancing (like South Korea), and those who waited a long time to implement it (Italy, Spain) back them up.

        And as we have seen with climate change, there are plenty of ‘qualified experts’ willing to toe the RW nutcase line on a subject. People have a variety of motivations for doing this, I don’t know why this particular person is doing so.

         

        Why the anger, Joe? I do hope you survive all this. I hear Tokyo is going to suggest shelter in place policies. Stay safe.

      • #299866
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 14,723

        The oil companies hired plenty to argue that climate change wasn’t happening. Climate change deniers would trot out these people and say, “See! Here’s an expert who agrees with us!”

        You are an intelligent and well-read person, but you are asking us to take his word over other experts in the WHO, CDC, and numerous national health authorities. This guy is making an extraordinary claim, and I see no extraordinary evidence to back it up.

        I do see that more people have died of C-19 in the United States than died in the Pearl Harbor and 9/11 attacks combined, and that it could have been avoided if effective quarantine measures had been taken earlier. The virus did infect a lot of people who voted in Florida, went on spring break there, or to Mardi Gras in New Orleans. I’m sure all of them were perfectly willing to get sick or die in order to achieve quicker herd immunity.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #299842
      Pam2
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      • Total Posts: 5,650
    • #299843
      jwirr
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,506

      This man fails to understand that we have no other means of fighting this coronavirus. That puts damn near living in the middle ages. Except we have better communication, better access to news, and that allows us to fight the virus by limiting it’s access to victims. And social distancing is the only way we have to do that. Especially as someone allowed the federal stockpile for emergencies to be all but depleted because they all think that government should not be the one handling the problems of the people (I think it is called supply side economics, trickle down and smaller government).

      We are fighting a modern crisis with yesterdays knowledge. At least from the WH.

      jwirr

    • #299850
      Bearian
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 536

      Now we are not so bound by the laws of nature, we are not herds anymore we a  parasite.

      • #299853
        jwirr
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 1,506

        Maybe in the distant past herd immunity worked but in the 20th century most of the diseases we overcame have been due to vaccines. I doubt that this is going to work until someone in the world finds that vaccine. tRump thinks he has but it had never been tested for this. And I seriously doubt that a president like him will ever find that vaccine. My faith is not in him.

        jwirr

    • #299852
      retired liberal
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,725

      The Spanish Flu lasted approximately two years.
      People were ordered to wear masks, schools, theaters and businesses were closed and bodies piled up in makeshift morgues.
      Shelter in place. No more that ten people together at one time. Home made cloth masks.
      Only now we have a government for the rich and the rest of us can mostly fend for ourselves, because we shipped our manufacturing over seas.

      We are an arrogant species, believing our fantasy based "facts" are better than the other person's fake facts.
      If you are wrong, it will be because you are not cynical enough.
      Both major political parties are special interest groups enabling each other for power and money, at the expense of the people they no longer properly serve…
      Always wear a proper mask when out and about. The life you save could be both yours and mine.

      • #299859
        MizzGrizz
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 2,038

        Woodrow Wilson was President during the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic.

        Woodrow Wilson was what today we would call a neoliberal.He was a lot like Obama.And he was as ineffective at handling the virus as was Trump.When it hit,he was off in Versailles negotiating the spoils of the First World War despite pleas from Congress for him to come home and attend to the domestic side of things..While there,he himself caught a fairly severe case of the flu that may have weakened his system and made him vulnerable to the strokes he had later.In fact,he may have had a mild stroke at Versailles also.

    • #299856
      game meat
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,245

      The social distancing measures and lockdowns are not meant to be a solution.

      From what I can tell it serves two purposes: to slow the rate of infection so the hospitals have the resources to care for the sick so they’re not reduced to leaving people on an air mattress in the parking lot to die an agonizing death, and so the morgues can handle the flow of dead bodies so when they teach the history lesson on covid years from now the footage doesn’t look like something out of Aushwitz.

      That’s it. It’s just biding time until there is an effective treatment of some kind.

      The worst hit areas like NYC already have their resources strained. An excellent healthcare system would be put to the test. A for-profit system that is designed to operate at maximum efficiency, cutting every possible corner, and accounting for every penny, is uniquely unsuited to handle such a crisis.

      Besides I’m not sure how you can effectively isolate only the most vulnerable people and let everyone else  go on as if everything is fine. People over 65 do not live in some sub-section of America, isolated from everyone else.  It’s unrealistic to expect all, or even most, of those who fall into the high risk category to be able to somehow live on a different planet for however long this takes. It only works (insomuch as it does) if everyone does it.

    • #299873
      NV Wino
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 5,236

      As others have stated above, the idea is not to stop the disease, but to slow its spread so we have the resources to treat those affected. This is particularly important in areas with a densely packed population such as Japan… or New York.

      “As we act, let us not become the evil that we deplore.” Barbara Lee
      “Politicians and pro athletes: The only people who still get paid when they lose.” William Rivers Pitt

    • #299876
      Mr. Mickeys Mom
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 3,661

      Besides, if people have been following information about how this virus thrives, they’d know to GET outdoor walking in the sun whilst conforming to the stay at home advice.

      It’s true about herd immunity when there is predictability of how the virus acts… THERE ISN’T ANY OF THAT… Count me as one person highly suspicious where the manifestation of this virus is concerned.

      Hell, no... I'm not giving up...

    • #299881
      ravensong
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,140

      When Trump was telling people that the virus was just a hoax perpetrated by Democrats as a means to remove him from office, and that Business As Usual should continue, everything was under control, and people should not be worried about the virus, and told us to run along now, nothing to see here.

      Mama taught me, when I was a child way back in the ’50’s, to not go around people who had colds and flus, because I could catch what they had. At that time, this was understood by most everyone to be simple common sense.  I have been blessed with great good health over the course of my lifetime, in large part due to following this common sense advice imparted to me by my mother.

      When I was a sophomore in college, when McCarthyism was still fresh in the minds of literate folks with IQ’s above 90, I learned another important tenet of what is simple common sense:

      Never believe a single thing that capitalist marketers, Republicans, RW wackos, or loony RW conspiracy theorists tell you

      I won’t be sacrificing myself, or the health of others, for the greater glory of Trump and capitalism, ever.

      Living an objective reality, common sense based existence, and luck, has blessed me with a long, happy, healthy, and rewarding life, for which I am exceedingly grateful.

      1377

      One early medical advance as a result of the Black Death was the establishment of the idea of quarantine in the city-state of Ragusa (modern Dubrovnik, Croatia) in 1377 after continuing outbreaks.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death#Transmission

      “A lie doesn't become truth, wrong doesn't become right, and evil doesn't become good, just because it's accepted by a majority.” ~ Booker T. Washington

      The truth is, there’s no such thing as being “anti-Fascist.” Either you are a decent human being with a conscience, or you are a fascist.
      ~ Unknown

    • #299883
      bazukhov
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,698

      “Sacrifice few to save many” sounds good…..as long as you aren’t part of the few.

      Tell me, great captain, how do the angels sleep when the devil leaves his porch light on? Tom Waites

    • #299886
      Punxsutawney
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 1,712

      Of those that get seriously ill, permanent lung, heart and eye damage are significant risks from this virus, meaning possibly permanently disabled.

      And as to expertise, well my wife’s cousin is a leading epidemiologist. A person who is paid to travel around the world to give lectures, and she is definitely on the flatten the curve side of this argument.

      In America, “Liberty” means “Free to Die in Service of Capital” - Amfortas the hippie

    • #299891
      Haikugal
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 1,645

      Like for the comments….thanks!

      The DNC “big tent” excludes Nina Turner but includes John Kasich.

    • #300016
      ElfinWilde
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 279

      Nobody is immune to Covid 19.  Ergo, herd immunity does not work.

      In order for herd immunity to begin working in this case, having had, and recovered from Covid 19 would insure future immunity to the virus.  There is not enough data to presume this is true.

      Furthermore, for this kind of immunity to prevail (if indeed on does become immune after surviving), we would have to sacrifice somewhere around two percent or more of the population (since that is the attrition rate published at this point) in order to gain this herd immunity (providing that as it spreads rapidly, Covid 19 does not become more deadly as some viruses do).

      I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m not willing to become a statistic in this debate…  Let him go first.

      You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars. You have a right to be here.

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