Hidden Trump voters could have big November impact, and my illustration of what this looks like

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    • #354316
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 17,027

      (The Hill) Trump supporters are far more likely to hide their preference in polls. This was the finding of recent research that investigated this increasingly prevalent assumption. If true in even small percentages, an imposing Trump surge could be hiding within the electorate.

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      To test this theory, CloudResearch recently sampled American voters in search of what they term “shy voters.” Their results show that Trump supporters were “significantly more reluctant to share their opinions on phone surveys compared to Biden supporters.” Almost 12 percent of Republicans and nearly 11 percent of Independents, were also almost twice as likely to be reticent than Democrats (about 5 percent).

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      However, those roughly one in 11 reticent voters are not, as CloudResearch discovered, evenly distributed between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Instead, they run about 2-to-1 in Trump’s favor. On the net, they come out to around a 3 percent hidden “Trump bump.”

      Again, that may appear small, but not in what is an increasingly tight race. According to Real Clear Politics’s average of polling results, Biden’s national lead is now just 6 percent — down from 9 percent on July 1. Currently, Biden’s lead in the all-important top battleground states is far narrower — just about 3 percent, compared to just over 5 percent on Aug. 5.

      Full story here

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      OK, let’s see what this hidden Trump bounce looks like in real time. Here is my latest electoral map snapshot based on the most recent polling:

      And here it is with that 3% hidden Trump bump:

      See? All the sudden all Trump has to do is pick off two of those new tossup states and he wins.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #354366
      So Far From Heaven
      Keymaster
      • Total Posts: 6,930

      that it ain’t over till the fat lady sings.

      That is also why exit polls are now increasingly unreliable. By margins exceeding 10 percent no less.

    • #354452
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 17,027

      @sffh The hidden Trump bounce is maybe 3%, not 10. Big difference. And this had nothing to do with the Democratic primary, where presumably Trump voters didn’t vote. That was rank election fraud, no doubt about it in my mind. That was just wholesale flipping of Bernie votes or Warren votes to Biden. Probably by inserting just a line or two of code into electronic voting machines or scanners. Easy peasy.

      I think I am going to take this little bounce into account from now on, though.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

      • #354587
        So Far From Heaven
        Keymaster
        • Total Posts: 6,930

        @ohiobarbarian

        I thought about this. And I have a simple model that can show you how this reluctance to state your vote to an exit poll can really fuck over the result.

        We have 100 people that are polled outside a half and half precinct. So in reality we have 49 voters for B and 51 votes for T. Here is how this can get totally fucked up.

        We gonna assume that 10 percent of either party is just gonna say fuck off it’s my private vote. So. The MOST the poll could show is 44 B and 45 T.

        But we KNOW for a fact that this isn’t what the numbers will be because the voters don’t say that equally in both parties. There is a ten percent skew at a minimum for Republican voters against answering this question that is well documented. For like 40 or 50 years. It’s the damn no answer problem. Had to study it in college long ago after Ronnie got his first win. Assume for grins and giggles that 5 percent more of the non-respondents are rethugs.

        Well, guess who won? That gives B 93 percent answering so he gets 45 or 46 votes according to the poll. T gets only 87 percent responding yes and his vote count according to the poll is now 44 votes and they claim B won the precinct narrowly.

        And there is NO way to correct this during the polling. Period. They can’t assume jack shit and they can’t normalize the result while the votes are being cast.

        You think this is bad? Polling before the election has HUGE errors that are assumed to not exist, called actually pulling the fucking lever. “Most likely to vote” is a joke. That has been proven time and again.

        Here is what we know for a fact. T voters will crawl in while fucking dying to cast their votes for Orange Face. THAT was proven when he won the nomination.

        Uncle Pervert has a real big fucking problem on his hands in the six to ten states that are going to determine the win.

    • #354467
      Punxsutawney
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 1,830

      Anything that is within 5 points, maybe more will get swung to the rethugs when they are running the elections, either through e-vote flipping, or just plain old fashioned voter suppression. Been doing it since at least 2004.

      In America, “Liberty” means “Free to Die in Service of Capital” - Amfortas the hippie.

      Most of today’s elites have the moral and social reasoning capacities of spoiled toddlers.

      “People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage...but the privileged also feel that their privileges, however egregious they may seem to others, are a solemn, basic, God-right. The sensitivity of the poor to injustice is a trivial thing c

    • #354481
      Babel 17
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 3,869

      If you could see it, then they should have, so then if Biden loses they’ll be hard pressed for an excuse as to why they didn’t go after those blue collar and Independent voters.

      They can’t afford to blame China if they lose, and that Russia! shtick has lose its effectiveness.

      Oh wait, they’ll blame the Bernie Bros again, especially the ones not entitled to be black if they didn’t vote for Biden, and the loco Latins.

    • #354593
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 17,027

      @sffh Close to 70% of Trump supporters are enthusiastic about voting for him, so that makes them more likely to vote than not, yes? Only 40% of Biden supporters say they are enthusiastic, so the rest of them are like, MEH. That means they’ll vote if it’s not a hassle, but if it is, and it will be in a lot of swing states, a lot of them, even 5% is a lot, won’t.

      That can make all the difference. I’m trying to come up with a way to factor that in to my electoral maps–to be conservative, I’m thinking it’s at least a 4% swing in Trump’s favor.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #354611
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 17,027

      Usually independents are no more than maybe 30% of the sample, which is actually a low figure of how many they are. If anything, they are undercounted, in my experience. The polls were accurate in 2016; it’s just that Trump won all but two states where he was within the margin of error, namely Minnesota and New Hampshire.

      That “Trump bump” of hidden or lying voters goes part of the way to explaining that, and I think the enthusiasm gap explains much of the rest of it. Of course, voter suppression had an impact as well, and no poll takes that into account.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #354788
      doh1304
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,307

      #OhioBarbarian I have a very possible nightmare idea for you. Say you have 100 people – 52 b 48 t. now, 5 of b’s voters are actually rich suburban liberals. On Nov 3 they vote their stock portfolios rather than what their coctail party friends say they want them to vote. Meanwhile 10 people said they weren’t t supporters because they assume that “everyone” (in the media, etc) would call them a racist if they admitted they were t supporters. So, 5 of b’s voters are lying and would vote for t while 10 of b’s voters are actually lying (we used to call it the Bradley Effect) and are actually for t.  Final score: T  63, B 37.

      Now what does your map look like? (pretty obviously this only applies to certain states, so the blowout, if it comes, won’t be that decisive, but the Bradley Effect got it’s name because it happened in CA. Twice.

    • #354803
      JonLP
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,428

      That is often the biggest metropolitan area a Republican wins during a Presidential election. If Trump is bleeding in the suburbs I don’t see how he wins Arizona. Even a lot of the rural areas here are actually Democratic.

    • #354828
      eridani
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 6,467

      Being conservative is likely to make you seriously amoral, and in cultures that are religious, they are ashamed to admit it.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor

      Jesus: Hey, Dad? God: Yes, Son? Jesus: Western civilization followed me home. Can I keep it? God: Certainly not! And put it down this minute--you don't know where it's been! Tom Robbins in Another Roadside Attraction

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