In Afghanistan, Islamic State is seeking to exploit divisions within the Taliban

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    • #443513
      eridani
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      • Total Posts: 9,978

      https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/31/afghanistan-islamic-state-divisions-taliban-kabul-bombing-kabul-bombing

      For ISKP, the only possibility of strategic success is splitting the Taliban into rival factions, hoping that one of these factions will then ally with them. ISKP is fully aware of the extent of the current tensions between the Taliban’s leadership in the south and the Taliban networks in the north and in the east. It hopes to drive a wedge between the southern and the eastern Taliban in particular, but it has also relations with the north-eastern Taliban. The main problem facing the Taliban leadership is they don’t have the majority of the manpower, only about 40-45% of their 85,000 number. Sirajuddin Haqqani, the leader of the Haqqani network and deputy of the Quetta Shura, leads the eastern “lobby” and represents around 30-35% of the forces, including some of the north-eastern Taliban, while the northern (Uzbek and Tajik) Taliban account for about 25%.

      The ISKP calculus is therefore to make the contradictions between the southern and eastern Taliban explode. Tension was already high, as the proposed cabinet list, completely dominated by southerners, enraged the easterners and northerners. The airport attack only exacerbated the dispute, as the eastern Taliban entered the capital first, creating grievances with the southern leadership who wished to appear in charge of the situation.

      Because of the past record of Haqqani collaboration with ISKP, the southern Taliban will now be suspecting the Haqqanis of being involved in the attack. The eastern Taliban threaten to “join ISKP” if their grievances are not addressed, while the southerners respond that “the real Taliban are the southern ones”. The Taliban will indeed need some statesmanship to keep the whole show from unravelling ingloriously fast.

      Jesus: Hey, Dad? God: Yes, Son? Jesus: Western civilization followed me home. Can I keep it? God: Certainly not! And put it down this minute--you don't know where it's been! Tom Robbins in Another Roadside Attraction

    • #443598
      zooka
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      • Total Posts: 67

      identity politics / wedge  issue bs, coming to all of the failed nations (just like the US, especially Texas)  It can’t be seen as organic in Afghanistan by any rational person. It is an absolute smoking gun that all flavors of ISIS are banking/MIC cabal proxies. And yes, I do mean that a CIA/Mossad/MI6 false flag just killed 13 US Marines!

      The original neocon pseudo-academic horseshit at least pretended that the goal was maintenance of civil society as “democracy at gunpoint” was imposed on the ME. The last 15 years have made it obvious that these are barbaric ghouls who are content to create tens of millions of refugees and a trail of failed states in their wake. Civil War 2.0 is on the horizon for the US, courtesy of the same amoral masters of the universe!

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