Is anyone working on Plan B?
February 2, 2020 at 4:08 AM - Views: 227 #260354snotParticipant
- Total Posts: 968
Meaning, if the DNC is clearly screwing Bernie, can he run as an Independent? Is anyone working on meeting the requirements – collecting the required signatures in time for the various states’ filing deadlines? See https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates .
I note that one state’s deadline is just 1 month away (N. Carolina). The article at the above link also says there are “sore loser laws” in two states, Texas and S. Dakota, but those states went for Trump in 2016 anyway.
I expect the DNC would try to delay the main screwing until it’s too late for Bernie to switch to Plan B.
Destruction is easy; creation is hard, but more interesting.
February 2, 2020 at 4:46 AM #260370revbonesParticipant
- Total Posts: 30
Bernie’s already said that he would support the nominee if it wasn’t him. Same as last time. As much as I would love for him to start a 3rd party and know that he’s probably the only one that could start a viable one, he won’t do it. He doesn’t want to be remembered as Ralph Nader is (even though that is historical revisionism by people similar to those at SV).
February 2, 2020 at 6:23 AM #260406
February 2, 2020 at 4:49 AM #260371
February 2, 2020 at 4:50 AM #260372RufusTFireflyParticipant
- Total Posts: 2,420
If Bernie should make the unwise choice to run as an Independent, rest assured that there will be road blocks thrown up in practically every state in an effort to prevent him from even getting on the ballot.
As a result, a huge amount of the campaign’s energy and money will be siphoned off and devoted to fighting state-by-state legal battles and struggling to get any sort of media attention once he’s no longer affiliated with one of the two officially sanctioned parties.
February 2, 2020 at 4:44 PM #260583game meatParticipant
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@rufustfirefly And even if he overcame all of those issues, he’d still be in an unwinnable position.
The only reason he’s running as a Democrat and putting up with the DNC is because he knows it’s the only chance he has. Imo, he would have gone independent from the start if a realistic path to the white house existed outside of the two party monopoly. He looks at the electoral map and correctly concludes that it’s impossible to win every single blue state in the general against the Democrat without a single one of them getting pushed to Trump, while pulling the same Houdini trick in enough swing states to win the ec.
The chances of him running in the general as an independent are somewhere between zero and zero because he knows his odds of winning are also between zero and zero under the current system. I wish it were otherwise, but he’s doing the best he can with what he has to work with and, unfortunately, what he has to work with is the Democratic party.
February 2, 2020 at 5:02 AM #260376wilsonbooksParticipant
- Total Posts: 128
Plan B is the same as Plan A. We are going to win this!
“I will tell you what I will do and what I will not do. I will not serve that in which I no longer believe, whether it calls itself my home, my fatherland, or my church: and I will try to express myself in some mode of life or art as freely as I can and as wholly as I can, using for my defense
the only arms I allow myself to use -- silence, exile, and cunning.”
― James Joyce, A Portrait of the Artist as a Young Man
February 2, 2020 at 6:24 AM #260407
February 2, 2020 at 5:06 AM #260377StockholmerParticipant
- Total Posts: 511
Maximal Quantum Chaos
The classical chaos phenomenon is related to the irregular and unpredictable evolution of nonlinear systems. What is important is that the behaviour of such systems is determined, which means that time evolution of the system’s state can be described by corresponding equations, usually in a form of nonlinear differential equations. The term “irregular evolution” is related to the nature of the dynamics of the system and is not related to the unpredictable influence of the environment. The chaotic behaviour exhibits itself in high sensitivity of system’s evolution to the initial conditions. In fact, it refers to the situation when we are not able to determine the final state of a system when we have limited information concerning its initial state. On the other hand, when the initial state of the system is well defined, according to the principle of determinism, its final state should be well determined. However, for real systems, such ideal situation cannot be observed, as the initial conditions are always determined with some accuracy.
Political Chaos Theory
Chaos and the Theory of Elections
Noise Sensitivity and Chaos in Social Choice Theory
February 2, 2020 at 5:41 AM #260387
February 2, 2020 at 5:47 AM #260390
February 2, 2020 at 6:19 AM #260402Blue MeanyParticipant
- Total Posts: 204
I think there needs to be a plan for addressing cheating. In 2016, the campaign did very little in response to incidents of this and local supporters were unable to do much on their own. The one attempt to sue over this in Arizona, was thrown out for lack of proof that it had changed the outcome–but, of course, without discovery it is hard to get proof. Generally courts don’t like to get involved in primaries, but they view them, like the DNC, as private matters. But I do think we should plan to document every anomaly and make sure that we have cameras/phones to record things, especially in caucuses. One trick that was pulled in 2016 was to have revotes after lots of people had left. I wish the campaign would circulate some guidelines on this, and give a web-site or number to call. I remember that in one election, I think in 2004, a non-partisan site was set up to record and tabulate complaints.
February 2, 2020 at 6:39 AM #260419The Red MenaceParticipant
- Total Posts: 1,080
We can’t really compare Bernie’s 2016 campaign with his 2020 campaign.
He genuinely had no idea that he would catch fire the way he did in 2016. he kicked it off more as a “chance to speak up” campaign, in the fashion that Mike Gravel tried this time around. and then he got a huge tide of support. his campaign was completely unprepared for it. Several states completely lacked offices, and the campaign was basically headquartered out of people’s houses for a time. There was a LOT of logistical and organizational support even into the primary voting, no real training. it was very literal grassroots, a bunch of people diving in headfirst and trying their best, not always to the best effect. Lots of inefficiency and confusion.
That was four years ago. Lots of time to prepare everything, learn the field, fill offices and train volunteers, prepare legal arguments, all of it. The sanders campaign still has the same nice guy face it had in 2016, but it’s filled with hardbitten motherfuckers all ready and prepared for the worst fight.
February 2, 2020 at 6:40 AM #260420chknltlParticipant
- Total Posts: 1,050
I don’t know about “B” but here is my Plan C:
Whatever the cost, we simply have to hire the CIA to permanently shut down SV on the pretense that they worked for Google to interfere with U.S. elections on behalf of the Russians. If we don’t do this, JPR will never hear the end of it!
February 2, 2020 at 7:28 AM #260429
February 2, 2020 at 7:31 AM #260431Mick063Participant
- Total Posts: 578
Plan B is to rally behind AOC’s anti incumbent PAC and lend it the same enthusiastic support we gave to Bernie.
We go down swinging.
"I welcome their hatred" Franklin D Roosevelt
February 2, 2020 at 4:50 PM #260585
February 2, 2020 at 9:26 AM #260441Jim LaneParticipant
- Total Posts: 534
If Bernie is not the nominee, then 2020 will be like 2016 in many respects:
- Bernie will endorse the Democratic nominee.
- The overwhelming majority of people who voted for Bernie in the primary will vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election. (Last time, I think it was about 90%.)
- A minority (tiny, but very well represented on JPR) will remain convinced that, if Bernie had run in the general election after losing the Democratic nomination, he would have overcome the enormous obstacles to such a campaign, would have overturned 150 years of history of the current two-party system, and would have rolled to victory.
- The closest thing to your “Plan B” will be the Green Party. The Greens will again run a candidate and will continue their unbroken record of electoral futility. If they’re lucky they’ll bag a city council seat somewhere and hail it as the dawn of a new era.
The biggest difference from 2016 to 2020 will mirror the change from 2000 to 2004. In 2000, after eight years of a Democrat in office, Nader’s campaign downplayed (or outright denied) the differences between the two major parties. In 2004, after four years of a Republican administration, the foolishness of that position was clear for all (well, most) to see, and the Nader/Green vote plummeted.
Specifically, in 2000, Nader as the Green Party candidate got 2.74% of the vote, the party’s highest showing ever. In 2004, Nader ran as independent (0.38% of the vote) while the Green candidate, David Cobb, got 0.10%. Thus, the share for those two candidates combined was down by more than four-fifths from what Nader alone had gotten in the previous cycle.
In 2016, Stein as the Green Party candidate got 1.07% of the vote, the party’s second-highest showing ever. This year, the Greens will face the same problem as in 2004: Many progressives, with the experience of four horrific years of an actual Republican administration staring them in the face, will reject the Greens’ false equivalence of the two major parties, and will instead prioritize defeating the GOP incumbent. As a result, the Green Party share of the popular vote in 2020 will decline from the previous cycle, as it did in 2004.
In the Greens’ defense, they are at least doing better than the People’s Party. A couple years ago, the Movement for a People’s Party (the organization started by Nick Brana) was getting a fair amount of attention on JPR. I haven’t heard much about them lately. In 2016, the Green Party was on the ballot in 44 states plus the District of Columbia, and will probably do at least that well this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to find the People’s Party on the ballot in zero states.
February 2, 2020 at 11:53 AM #260471djean111Participant
- Total Posts: 4,487
That’s what the DNC is counting on, isn’t it. I won’t vote for that Dem, I would vote Green, and I hope the outcome would be the same as the outcome in 2016. Oh, and, IMO, there really are not many differences between the two parties any more. That’s why the Vichy Dems say they will happily work with the GOP. And working with the GOP always benefits the GOP, I have noticed. And Vichy Dem pocketbooks. The DNC changing its “inflexible” rules after being bribed by Bloomberg pretty much says it all, doesn’t it. There really should be a red light at the door of every DNC office.
February 2, 2020 at 4:06 PM #260567bazukhovParticipant
- Total Posts: 2,811
To most Democrats and Independents, the most important issue is Trump. They want him out and will vote accordingly no matter who is nominated.
Biden supporters will hold their noses if it’s Bernie or Warren and Sanders supporters will hold their noses if it’s Biden or Buttigieg.
It’s about politics, not ideology.
Tell me, great captain, how do the angels sleep when the devil leaves his porch light on? Tom Waites
February 2, 2020 at 9:38 AM #260443mmonkParticipant
- Total Posts: 883
Fear not the path of Truth for the lack of People walking on it. - RFK
February 2, 2020 at 2:06 PM #260518
February 2, 2020 at 6:04 PM #260625
February 2, 2020 at 1:15 PM #260493CharlesParticipant
- Total Posts: 1,595
Plan B should have a major focus on down ballot progressives.
Regardless of what people decide to do at the presidential level resources and votes should still flow to getting these people elected so that the progressive agenda keeps moving forward.
Bernie: "Not Me. Us"
February 2, 2020 at 3:00 PM #260536retired liberalParticipant
- Total Posts: 2,986
That is how the Republicans took over. They started at the bottom, running for any open local elected office. Dog catcher, what ever, it didn’t matter.
They just added each win to their resume when they got elected to whatever, to help them at the next level. After a few election cycles, they took over counties, then city commissions. After that they went after the state government, then the federal level. It took decades. They elected a president in 2000 and kept going.
A couple of more general elections, where we think our vote still somehow counts and the takeover will be complete.
We will again have the obscenely wealthy (nobility) and the upper religious hierarchy working together to keep us serfs in our place.
The American people are too complacent. We should have been in the streets ten years ago, but we let the authoritarians subdue us, as they have before.
Another 10 years will be too late. if we can’t swamp out the wholesale election frauds our owners are gearing up for, this time around.
We are an arrogant species, believing our fantasy based "facts" are better than the other person's fake facts.
If you are wrong, it will be because you are not cynical enough.
Both major political parties are special interest groups enabling each other for power and money, at the expense of the people they no longer properly serve…
Always wear a proper mask when out and about. The life you save could be both yours and mine.
February 2, 2020 at 6:15 PM #260631
@retiredliberal 10 and 20 years ago we were in the streets – Occupy Wall Street and anti-war protests (huge march in San Francisco with almost no media coverage).
Pity they didn’t work like EuroMaidan did in Ukraine – but the US spent five billion supporting that, and I don’t know how much stopping the others. I had a friend living very near the Occupy Wall Street protests in Oakland who said there were helicopters overhead 24 hours a day.
February 2, 2020 at 2:13 PM #260521
February 2, 2020 at 3:28 PM #260548incognitoParticipant
- Total Posts: 3,956
My plan B is vote Green and vote against every incumbent Dem on my ballot. Greens and Independents ONLY will get my vote.
And…this will be the last time I ever vote. Why bother? It’s all rigged and we’re their little money puppets in their Election dog and pony show.
February 2, 2020 at 4:26 PM #260577SatanParticipant
- Total Posts: 3,460
Plan B for me is the inevitable mass immigration of souls to Hell, and all of the infrastructure issues that’s going to create for us down here.
Because the US – and probably the planet in general – is not going to survive another 4 years of an absent minded authoritarian fascist in charge.
And whether that absent minded authoritarian fascist is named Don or Joe really doesn’t matter all that much, the outcome would be the same.
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable". - John F. Kennedy
February 2, 2020 at 4:49 PM #260584EarthartistParticipant
- Total Posts: 896
That’s right Satan this election if Bernie gets cheated, is the last chance we have to try and turn the tables on Climate catastrophe. The chances are slim but I am willing to fight for that chance, for my kids and my extended families kids, all of your kids that are not in hell. If the dems screw with this election everything changes for me and how I move forward in Life. It will be time to figure out how to make their lives safer going forward.
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