Long term effects of the shutdown

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    • #10641
      David the Gnome
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      • Total Posts: 2,726

      Reports today indicate that the President is taking this whole “National Emergency” idea rather seriously.  I’ll wait until he actually does before I lose my s h I t about it, but there are a wide variety of other issues.

      Several years ago, I knew a number of single mothers who were working, going to school – and needed help getting by.  Food stamps and low income housing were particularly life-saving, but also programs like WIC, which have already list funding.

      Low income housing provided by the private sector is already seeing leases begin to lapse – and the money to cover rent may not be forthcoming at all.

      In February, there is the expected 95% cut to the SNAP (food stamp) program.  There is also the problem that, the longer this continues, the more the economy will suffer.

      Give it a few months – and we are looking at a recession.  Companies wanting to go public will be unable to do so.  The federal agencies that are currently forcing people to work for free will start losing employees, one way or another.

      If no solution for such things is reached by February (and even then, they will need to haul ass) then I believe we will start seeing large demonstrations – and riots.

      Continue into March – perhaps sooner – and I expect the stock market to fall several thousand points.

      The FDA (which, it could be argued wasnt doing that great) has had the overwhelming majority of its funding and staff cut.  The EPA is in even worse shape (some 700 of thirteen thousand still at work).

      There is a rather large variety of federal services that will continue to shutdown.  Furloughed workers will eventually start looking for other work – or do something stupid.

      Amidst all of this, militia groups will likely start showing up in the streets in great numbers.

      That is… without the emergency declaration – if the shutdown continues for a few months.  In a year, this Country will be utterly unrecognizable in comparison to today.

      Unfortunately, I suspect Trump actually WILL declare a National emergency.  At that point, who knows what will happen?

      There is not much time to avert disaster.  If the dems have to give the fool five billion to get the wheels turning again… for Gods sake do it.  This guy isnt screwing around.

      If they wait too long… could be it will be too late to turn the tide at all.

    • #10650
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 17,305

      If they do that, Trump will just keep pushing to see how far he can go in his quest to be declared God-Emperor of America. Yes, I do believe he is that megalomaniacal. You must admit he does have a ridiculously high opinion of himself; reminds me of Caligula in that respect, he does.

      Trump will do this again and again and again if the Democrats let him. If he succeeds, you and millions of other can kiss what is left of their safety net good-bye forever.

      I’m not too worried about the national emergency bit; it will be struck down by a federal court almost as soon as it is declared, and even this Supreme Court will back up the House of Representatives on this one. I’m pretty sure about that. Roberts, for one, will never go along.

      If there are riots, well, there should already be riots, or at least strikes. At least a prolonged shutdown will bring home Pericles’ old axiom to tens of millions: Just because you’re not interested in politics doesn’t mean that politics won’t take an interest in you.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

      • #10684
        David the Gnome
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 2,726

        Than I do.  You may be right – he declares a National Emergency, is quickly rebuffed (I wonder how quick it would be) and loses some steam.  That still wont end the shutdown.  February comes in just a few weeks – assuming the dems do not compromise, that leaves it up to Trump – or possibly McConnell.

        I dont think that they are likely to back down – McConnell because he is terrified of his base – Trump because he is a lunatic.

        That will mean, at least in the short term, millions of people unable to buy food.  Then rental assisstance goes – add millions of homeless all at once.  The FDA is already on a shoestring budget – foods and drugs even worse than usual will sail right through.

        If the cost were not so high… I would agree with you, hold out as long as necessary, riot in the streets, strike.  It may yet come to that.  It hasn’t yet though.

        The thing about collapsing empires… is that those most vulnerable suffer the most.  We could look at nearly any historical example.  That fool Kublai Khan who managed to sink two massive fleets and kill thousands of men – because he didnt know what typhoon season was.

        Alexander the Great, who built a massive, thriving empire – but left no solid contingency in the case of his death.  Nero fiddling while Rome burned, and so on.

        We do not generally hear what happened to the thousands of people who had no one to protect them.  Who already had little food or wealth – who were wide open for the predators that came.

        I believed we are balanced on a very thin edge right now.  If it tips just a little further in the wrong direction…

        This Country was founded upon revolution – but can you imagine a modern one?  The fires will burn, people will suffer and die in their millions – and there is no way to know what happens once the smoke clears.

        I get it.  Give a tyrant a finger and ge will seize the whole arm.  What if this is really just about saving face though?  If he agrees to re open the government with funding for a year – and the cost is five billion in wall money – that brings us that much closer to getting rid of him.

        Perhaps Mueller will even get something on him – perhaps he will resign once it is shown he cant build a playhouse, let alone a wall.

        So far, most of this is speculation.  It us for certain though, that the longer this shutdown continues, the more people will suffer.

        Either one side compromises, or we all suffer together.  But no one should have to suffer at the whims of this madman.  Seems all too likely that we all will.

        • #10718
          doh1304
          Participant
          • Total Posts: 1,319

          Trump will not back down, and if the Democrats back down he will go on and on and on. But the Democrats will not back down, because they don’t care – they actually think that if they force a civil war level crisis the “deep state” (ultimately the Supreme Court and the armed forces) will back them in their ultimate goal – to turn America into a fascistic kleptocracy ruling through a terroristic identity politics.

          No, it is not that achievable, and if achieved probably short lived, but that’s what happens when you allow a tiny minority to believe it has unlimited wealth and power.

      • #10687
        bazukhov
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 2,866

        If tries to get his way by calling immigration a “National Emergency” he’ll soon be moving to a different Whine House.

        Tell me, great captain, how do the angels sleep when the devil leaves his porch light on? Tom Waites

    • #10656
      game meat
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,297

      If Trump wins this with his child like temper tantrum tactics, he will know he can get away with it, and that will just empower him to be even worse. We’ll see what happens. For now, I’d hold off on worrying about this turning into a post-apocalyptic hellscape with roaming bands of militias taking to the streets.

      • #10671
        Land of Enchantment
        Keymaster
        • Total Posts: 741

        momma and papa give in to its demands just to stop the tantrum? Impossible to break that pattern without some serious pain for everyone. They cannot cave in and if they cannot outsmart him and his tactics–then we are screwed. (And they probably can’t because they are dumb as a sack of rocks.)

        “Hope is the feathered thing that perches in your heart.” ~ Emily Dickinson

        • #10694
          game meat
          Participant
          • Total Posts: 1,297

          Sometimes those spoiled children make it into adulthood like that. The only way to deal with them, when you have to, is to establish strong boundaries as early as possible. Usually the real world humbles these people and they eventually grow up. That didn’t happen with Trump, as he has lived his whole live enabled by sycophants, and surrounded by his piles of money. We are dealing with a man in his seventies with the emotional maturity of a child. Scary stuff.

    • #10664
      Land of Enchantment
      Keymaster
      • Total Posts: 741

      It’s all over the MSM, and Pelosi supposedly has some sort of response prepared for her reply….

      We are gonna need a big, ventilated fan…    :headexplode:

      “Hope is the feathered thing that perches in your heart.” ~ Emily Dickinson

    • #10678
      xyzse
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,662

      Echoing the sentiments of others, one can not keep capitulating to such childish demands.

      For once, I wish to let this play out, and have the chips fall where they may.

      Granted, Pelosi and Schumer’s dumb responses show weakness rather than strength, and it is such a convoluted explanation that it plays to Trump’s base.

      Problem with them, is that they are such tools of the system that any justification they provide is hamstrung automatically by having to defend a broken system.  Not to mention that if you go back in recent history, they supported a Wall as well.

      Instead of being able to keep it simple with the following:

      • Trump owns this shut-down and he called for it, forced this issue instead of actual governing.
      • The Wall is ineffective, costly(especially since it will involve being manned), so it is a waste of money.  (They have to make a case why it is ineffective.  There are ways to do so, they just don’t actually believe it, so they are using this for politics instead)
      • Illegal immigration is being used as a scapegoat for many of the problems that we have.  (They can’t actually make a case for this, since the core issue is the fact that they spend money for the Rich to be able to make more money and create monopolies.  They really should be busting monopolies, but they don’t have ANY intention in doing so.)

      Either way, this whole thing somewhat dislodged the “Russian Collusion” narrative they’ve been peddling for a while.

      As long as they can make a case that Trump is at fault for this, and be clear about it, they won’t be getting much from this.  However, if they do capitulate, it sets a really awful precedent that a President can now mess around and throw a fit with a shut-down, making such maneuvers more common place.

      I dislike this whole fiasco.

      • #10690
        David the Gnome
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 2,726

        That is the challenge “Who will the public blame?”  For now, most blame Trump.  Public sentiment can be a rather fickle thing though, sooner or later, people will blame the Democrats as well – more than the red hatters that already do, I mean.

        Oh, they are watching the polls, biting their nails – but they are not nearly as frightened as they should be.  When millions go hungry and end up on the streets… they will do what they must to survive.

        Principle will be no shield – no one who’s in the pains of hunger will care, in the moment, who’s fault it is.  More than likely, politicians and the wealthy in general will be blamed (and rightfully so) but the innocent will not be immune.  They will be hit the hardest.

        I am hoping that I am wrong.  That in spite of everything Trump will negotiate, or the Senate will bully McConnell until he does.  Otherwise…

        Hmm.  Time for me to take a walk, I think.

        • #10697
          xyzse
          Participant
          • Total Posts: 1,662

          I find myself slightly disengaged in this whole mess.  I work in DC, but I can’t pay much attention to this at the moment.

          I have other things that take priority, specifically the mess that my mother got herself in to once more.

          Ugh… I just feel tired.

          • #10703
            David the Gnome
            Participant
            • Total Posts: 2,726

            I hear you, my friend.  Two parents who (while “functuoning”) are alcoholics.  A sister (who I am very proud of) in AA who just learned she has some pre cancerous growth inside her.  Plenty of my own, too.  As for today, back is killing me, got a nasty cough – and I think I’m coming down with something.

            Yeah.  I’m exhausted, too.

            • #10727
              glinda
              Participant
              • Total Posts: 804

              like I said….make the best plans that you can for yourself. Network with community as much as you can.

              I too have been coming down with something just like you described and the back I think is part of that. Mine has been acting up while I am getting a bit fluish.

              Animals know more than we do.

            • #10750
              xyzse
              Participant
              • Total Posts: 1,662

              Mine are things that could have been avoided.  I don’t actually understand how for some sort of Business/Money-managing professional that she supposedly is(Big surprise that she’s Republican), she gets herself in these sorts of messes and her kids have been bailing her out for years.

              And, as the oldest son who happens to be unmarried, I end up getting the lions share of helping her out.  Getting shaked up for money each beginning of the year.  More than usual too, kinda makes me feel trapped.

               

    • #10709
      Vanflower
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 52

      We can agree trump is such a baby he will not relent.

      Pelosis and shumer are always talking about how they are the grown-up, so let them act like it and compromise for the good of everyone who needs the gov open.  Trump the baby has already indicated his willingness to compromise.

      5b is not much in the overall scheme of things, it will hardly do much to build a wall.  We just spent 50b on the virtual wall which apparently is not working well.  There already is 600 miles of fencing, the 5b probably not enough to repair it much or build much new fencing.

      All it would take is a deal on DACA, less than 5b, and 8-10 red state senate D votes – why can’t this be accomplished it happens all the time.

       

      • #10743
        NV Wino
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 5,894

        I guess I missed the part where Trump is willing to compromise. Could you spell it out for me?

        “As we act, let us not become the evil that we deplore.” Barbara Lee
        “Politicians and pro athletes: The only people who still get paid when they lose.” William Rivers Pitt

        • #10771
          Vanflower
          Participant
          • Total Posts: 52

          He offered to cut a deal on DACA, less money, he has gone from a concrete wall to steel slats, maybe more compromises.

          What do you think, should the Ds compromise a bit too for the best interests of getting this distraction over with.  Just a few months ago Ds shut down over DACA, now is a chance to get it.

          • #10802
            Ohio Barbarian
            Moderator
            • Total Posts: 17,305

            trust either him or McConnell. Why should they? They trusted McConnell to end the last shutdown over DACA, and he immediately broke his promise.

            This San Francisco Chronicle story has more details on the whole subject if you’re interested.

            Edit: link not visible. Click on San Francisco and it’ll come up.

            It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

            Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

          • #10812
            NV Wino
            Moderator
            • Total Posts: 5,894

            Take the 5b and put it toward repairing the infrastructure. Trump “owned” the wall. He can pay for it out of his personal billions. Oh wait… he doesn’t have billions.

            “As we act, let us not become the evil that we deplore.” Barbara Lee
            “Politicians and pro athletes: The only people who still get paid when they lose.” William Rivers Pitt

    • #10731
      glinda
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 804

      Right now twiidiot appears crazy and childish with his actions to many people. And he will not relent and he will continue to take more. His actions in appointees is beyond the pale as are his continued profit making endeavors. Yes…..let the chips fall. Many will suffer and already have suffered prior to this.

      It has been said that his declaration of a National Emergency is his only out to make it appear to his constituents that he strongly fights but it may well be knocked down as even his Party fears repercussions from that in oh so many ways.

      Animals know more than we do.

    • #10770
      Awknid
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 87

      that it comes out of the military budget?  My republican friend told me that.  I never read that. Do you know?  Not that it would make it right for him to do so, just curious.  I’m getting a bit scared.

       

       

    • #10777
      Awknid
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 87

      and the fact that the corporatist Republicans will pounce on all of this to make a few bucks.  Then thinking of Chris Hedges’ descriptions of the ends of empires.  It’s not a pretty picture entering my mind.  I really wasn’t thinking this was so bad until now.

    • #10878
      Rex
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 154

      by holding the federal government hostage and harming national security. And this is him just getting started! No, Trump gets no wall and will have to learn to love being told NO.

       

      Forcing people to work without pay is akin to slavery.

    • #11052
      David the Gnome
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,726

      Hmm.  Titles for replies have gone away for the moment, it seems.  @sffh

      I guess this might seem cowardly to those who know me.  I mean, I get food stamps, Medicaid and now SSI – so am I only looking out for my own self interest?  Why believe me if I say no?

      Honestly, if the worst happens, i could probably survive, because of my family.  Many others could not.  Read a couple articles that are saying funding for February food stamps has been allocated – not sure on verification of this.

      Tax returns will supposedly go out as the IRS will be recalling many employees who, well, still wont get paid.  Better news than we had a week ago – if any of it is actually true, anyway.

      At this point I’m not really sure what to think.  Supposedly Trump is reversing course on food stamps and such…

      Is this just another bull s h I t show to scare us?  Are the likes of Trump, McConnell and Pelosi laughing up their sleeves?  “Next year we’ll call it the Nancy shutdown!  Lol”

      Some times I really hate politics.

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