Lots of short but important news: a huge storm is brewing (+UPDATES) – Vineyard of the Saker

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    • #467016
      Passionate Progressive
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      • Total Posts: 5,138

      Bits and pieces from the Blinken / Lavrov press conferences seem to support these updates – ‘nothing has changed’ iow State is tone deaf

      I just heard that on the news:(in no specific order, as they are coming in)

      Blinken is in Kiev and said that the US will give no written guarantees of ANY kind and if Russia attacks the Ukraine, the US will cripple Russia.

      The Russians said that the US is preparing a false flag in the Ukraine. The US accused Russia of the same.

      The President of Iran is in Moscow and offered Putin to unite against the collective West.

      Russia has sent forces to Belarus for training.  These forces will include several combined arms brigades and a full regiment of Su-35S.  The date for the exercises is Feb 10th.

      Lukashenko welcomed back his peacekeepers with a very good speech explaining that Belarus and Russia will always come to each other’s aide.

      Link

      The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.....Martin Luther King '63

      It takes all the technical proficiency our system can provide to make up for the woeful lack of popular support and political savvy of most of the regimes that the West has thus far sought to prop up.........Bernard Fall

    • #467021
      GZeusH
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      • Total Posts: 5,326

      The U.S. may not be the biggest country (that would be Russia);   it may not be the most populous country (that would be China);  but it may be populated and led by the biggest, most obnoxious assholes.

      Hitler 1944: Kiev is to be held to the last man.
      Biden 2022: Kiev is to be held to the last Ukrainian.

    • #467023
      gordyfl
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      • Total Posts: 2,252

      Russia sees the US increasing their military involvement in the Ukraine, so they move their troops near the border to let Ukraine and the US know “We’re watching”. The US seized on this opportunity to call Russia’s bluff. Russia has said repeatedly that they have no intentions of invading Ukraine.

      But now, if Russia backs down, they look weak, and Zelenski looks strong. If Russia attacks, it will be costly for both sides. Russia doesn’t want a war but they don’t want to feel humiliated.

      If I was Russia, I would dismiss any thoughts of invasion, swallow my pride, and sell lots of natural gas to Germany via Nord Stream 2.

      And as far as what to do about Ukraine…”No gas for you!”

      • #467026
        Passionate Progressive
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        • Total Posts: 5,138

        among others has argued that Russia has to respond – Ukraine is already a defacto NATO member (apparently the decision was made/stated in 2008)….But Russia has to weigh its options – considering military/economic and foreign (i.e., China) factors…..I even recall that Putin had already been given military options and I don’t believe that the Russians expected anything to happen with the US (Biden not in control – etc., etc.)….But Escobar intimated that the response will not bee to Ukraine populous in general but to either/and Kiyev, Brussels, and Washington – who knows….

        The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.....Martin Luther King '63

        It takes all the technical proficiency our system can provide to make up for the woeful lack of popular support and political savvy of most of the regimes that the West has thus far sought to prop up.........Bernard Fall

        • #467039
          gordyfl
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          • Total Posts: 2,252

          China is very good at showing restraint and focuses on making money. Russia should do the same.

          Sending in troops, I think, would be a mistake. There’s another option Russia could take, although I think it would also be a mistake, and that is “Over the horizon warfare” at selected military sites in Ukraine. But who knows where that would lead.

          Russia has lots of oil and natural gas. That’s their leverage.

          I read on German news (DW) that the majority (60%) of Germans want to open the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline. Germany is afraid Russia is going to blow it with military action in the Ukraine. IMO, Russia should be wise and practical.

          What will happen to the Ukraine economy when Russia cuts off their natural gas AND they lose those pipeline transit fees?

    • #467064
      Sorbish
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      • Total Posts: 445

      I really think Biden has gone as far as the military and intelligence community will let him go. I don’t think there is anything more upon which Bide can offer compromise.

      Being at uncompromising loggerheads is a bad place for both Putin and Biden, both will be pushed by advisors to not appear weak.

      I’d also caution that the ramping up in Belarus could be more of a response to the US telling the Baltic states they can sell US weapons and systems. Today there were also reports that Sweden has moved more of its forces to the island of Gotland (towards Russia). And the German PM has stated Russia’s moves must be seen as a threat.

      So regional posturing is developing.

      History doesn't repeat. We just make the same old mistakes in new contexts.

      .

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