Major hurricane threat developing for the US Gulf Coast

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    • #442385
      RCW2020
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      • Total Posts: 685

      By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

      Published Aug. 26, 2021 10:52 AM EDT | Updated Aug. 26, 2021 4:01 PM EDT

      AccuWeather forecasters on Thursday said it was becoming much more likely that parts of the central Gulf Coast would need to prepare for a strike from a major hurricane later Sunday or Monday.

      The tropical feature meteorologists have been monitoring was designated Tropical Depression Nine by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Thursday, and forecasters said it is becoming increasingly likely that it will eventually strengthen into Tropical Storm Ida, the ninth-named storm of the 2021 Atlantic season.

      Tropical Depression Nine was gathering strength over the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica on Thursday and hurricane hunters from the U.S. Air Force were en route to investigate the system, despite initially sharing a message on Twitter Thursday afternoon that poor weather had caused their flight to be delayed. Tropical storm warnings were issued for the Cayman Islands as well as parts of Cuba.

      On Thursday afternoon, the depression was moving to the northwest at a speed of 13 mph and had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. It was 95 miles south-southwest of Negril, Jamaica, and 165 miles southeast of Grand Cayman Island.

      Link to source…

    • #442459
      Snort McDork
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      • Total Posts: 5,010

      It’s going to miss Texas and Gov. Abbott.

      I'm Snort McDork and I approved this message.

      "I like Birdy Num-Nums"

      If you come for Nina Turner, Your ish better be airtight like Tupperware" -Rashida Talib

      • #442567
        Gryneos
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        • Total Posts: 1,635

        will experience another bad hurricane, either this year or next. Abbott and company won’t be directly affected, unless a tornado spawned by the leftovers of a storm manages to find them at home, on the road, or in the air.

        And honestly, I’d rather any of these storms directly affect the wealthy. They’re the ones who have shirked responsibility and always seem to manage to escape the easiest. Maybe if another Sandy were to completely wipe out Martha’s Vineyard to the point that even the land can’t be used again that they’d get the message about climate change. And yet, Mar-a-Lago continued to exist despite direct hits from hurricanes.

        The powerful in government and skyscraper don’t care and won’t care until the climate affects them exactly and without mercy.

        Who are you? | What do you want? | Why are you here? | Where are you going? | Do you have anything worth living for? | Who do you serve and who do you trust?

    • #442571
      Gryneos
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      • Total Posts: 1,635

      this system for a few days. One source I use for good local analysis and commentary is Space City Weather. The two running that page do an excellent job for all kinds of weather, even the boring hot kind 🙂

      Ida continues to aim for Louisiana, as Houston expects drier, hotter weather late this weekend

      Tropical Storm Ida

      Ida is slowly getting itself organized this morning near the Cayman Islands. It is expected to pass over western Cuba tonight, and then resume basically a beeline northwest into the Louisiana coast by Sunday night. The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting a major hurricane to make landfall on the central or eastern Louisiana coast.

      Ida is still dealing with a bit of shear and disorganization this morning, but it’s definitely strengthening a bit. With all this in mind, there could be some further track nudges east or west. The NHC forecast has trended more east in general, but it’s held a pretty steady landfall point. But given that track error is still typically 100 miles or so, there is a little wiggle room here.

      But for us in Houston that should not make much difference in what we experience unless perhaps we’re sitting in a boat offshore. With 6 to 10 foot waves expected offshore, this could lead to a little run up or minor coastal flooding in the usual coastal trouble spots. A storm that comes a little more west could yield a little more runup and vice versa. But for the most part no serious issues are expected in our area. Beaumont/Port Arthur and Lake Charles still look good for now, but those areas should continue to monitor trends through the day, just in case the western core of the storm drifts a little closer due to track adjustments. But direct, full fledged impacts would be highly unlikely given the track forecast, model forecasts, and historical error.

      Unfortunately for folks in central or eastern Louisiana, the same cannot be said, and in addition to wind and rain, storm surge will be an issue as well. The current peak surge forecast (water level above ground if it occurs at high tide) is 7 to 11 feet across most of eastern Louisiana.


      Significant storm surge is expected in eastern Louisiana, as well as on parts of the Mississippi and Alabama coasts. (NOAA)

      Who are you? | What do you want? | Why are you here? | Where are you going? | Do you have anything worth living for? | Who do you serve and who do you trust?

    • #442639
      MikeW285
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      @ Gryneos — I think you’re from down there? Be safe.

      The NHC currently forecasts GNO and DTB /down the bayou / Bayou Lafourche (where my wife is from) being on the dirty side. NHC now forecasts surge at 10-15 feet Morgan City east to the mouth of the Mississippi. I hope Port Fourchon doesn’t become unrecognizable.  Stay safe, all.

      • #442725
        Gryneos
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        • Total Posts: 1,635

        I’m not in Louisiana but my nextdoor neighbors are from some part of that state. We’re all in Houston, so we’re unlikely to see much from this hurricane. But yes, everyone stay safe. It’s forecast to be a Cat-4 by 7 am tomorrow. The forecast has it weakening before landfall, but a Cat-3 storm is still pretty bad.

        Who are you? | What do you want? | Why are you here? | Where are you going? | Do you have anything worth living for? | Who do you serve and who do you trust?

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