Nate Silver: “Without Pennsylvania, Biden becomes an underdog”

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    • #373661
      JonLP
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      • Total Posts: 3,359

      Joe Biden will become “an underdog” if he fails to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC’s “This Week” Sunday.

      Why it matters: Trump won the battleground by less than a point in 2016, as he narrowly swept swing states in the Rust Belt to secure victory in the Electoral College. FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls currently shows Biden with a 5% lead in Pennsylvania.

      What he’s saying: Silver told “This Week” that if Trump ends up winning the election, “it would come down to Pennsylvania.”

      • “Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s 5 points. It’s not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania,” Silver said.

      https://www.axios.com/pennsylvania-biden-underdog-nate-silver-2c1fb6c6-c75f-4cf5-9ee6-d51df1741e2b.html

      Let this radicalize you rather than lead you to despair - Mariame Kaba

      Like many public systems, GOP want to rip the battery out + say the whole car doesn’t work, so they can sell it for parts - AOC

    • #373665
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 20,155

      Biden’s not leading by five in Pennsylvania; he’s leading by six or seven and consistently hitting 50%, which Hillary never did. Yes, if Biden loses Pennsylvania he likely loses the election, but I don’t think he’s going to lose Pennsylvania.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

      • #373678
        Mr. Mickeys Mom
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 5,538

        As you know @ohiobarbarian… I live in PA, and it comes down to how many of Trump’s knuckle draggers can intimidate those who haven’t mailed in their ballot yet, like I did.  I live in SW PA, which is disgustingly dumbed down in all the wrong places.

        Nate Silver is even worse than any candidate. He’s like a tape worm coming out of the ass of anyone who will look.

        Hell, no... I'm not giving up...

    • #373669
      sadoldgirl
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,226

      Did he not predict the winner in 16 correctly? Ah no, that

      was MM. However, I doubt that we will know the winner

      by Wednesday morning due to later counting of mailed

      votes. Thus Silver does not need to play his attention game.

    • #373672
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 20,155

      @sadoldgirl Florida and Ohio. If Biden gets either one, it’s done. It also looks like voter turnout in Cuyahoga County is going to be north of 70%. If it is, Biden will carry Ohio and the election’s over, even if Trump somehow wins Pennsylvania.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #373676
      GZeusH
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 3,755

      Biden was a lying dog, and remains a lying dog.  Trump is a lying dog and will be until the day he dies.

      If you were hoping for something other than a lying dog in this election, you had unreal expectations.

      Corporate America consists of totalitarian entities laser-focused on short-term greed.

    • #373677
      Hamlet
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 53

      it’s not as simple as people think

      a lot of work will go into deciding if many of those votes should count and for which candidate

      in the end the Republicans have better vote counting operations than the Democrats

      so it will be close, but it will be Trump

    • #373769
      salemcourt
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,644

      @Hamlet Democrats have the better vote harvesting operation.

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