New Early Primary State Polls IA- Biden 34.9 Sanders 13.7 Buttigieg 11.4 SC Biden 48.3 Sanders 11.9

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    • #63012
      Stockholmer
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 502

      Buttigieg 5.2

       

      New Hampshire

      Biden 34.0

      Sanders 15.5

      Buttigieg 9.7

       

      http://firehousestrategies.com/may-2019-survey/

      Key Findings:

      The Biden Surge:

      We asked Democratic primary voters who they favored among the eight highest-profile Democrats who have already announced their candidacies. According to our survey, former Vice President Joe Biden has boosted his early lead in all three states. Biden’s best state is South Carolina, where he has 48% support (36% in February), followed by IA with 35% (25% in February), and New Hampshire at 34% (22% in February). This represents a double-digit boost in all three states over the past three months. After Biden, we find Bernie Sanders in second in all three states, in the low double-digits. Pete Buttigieg, who was not included in our first round, finished third in all three states with support ranging from 5% in South Carolina to 11% in Iowa. Elizabeth Warren comes in fourth, right behind Buttigieg in all three states, and has not changed in standing since February. Kamala Harris, on the other hand, had a steep drop since February, and now comes in fifth place. As with our earlier survey, Beto O’Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, and Cory Booker failed to break 5% in any of the three states.
      The following table displays our results, as well as the change for each candidate since our February poll. Pete Buttigieg was not singled out in our February poll, and therefore has no change associated.

       

    • #63015
      KenTankerous
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 937

      Sucks. Too many of them watch the Joe Biden Channel (MSNBC).

      "If we define an American fascist as one who in case of conflict puts money and power ahead of human beings, then there are undoubtedly several million fascists in the United States."
      - Henry A. Wallace
      (FDR's Vice President until he was forced out by the corrupt forces of obscene wealth.)

    • #63016
      djean111
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 4,050

      Oh!  How grim!   Attempted beatings will continue!

      Early days.    IMO Biden will shoot himself in both feet whilst aiming at the ceiling.  I did not despair when the internet was, stupifyingly,  all aglow/aghast about Hillary’s early lead, no reason to feel any different now.   I suppose the intent is to dishearten or unite behind the poll leader or just neener-neener, but too early for that, and IMO the DNC is already setting shit up for Biden, so I don’t really base fuck-all on polls when it comes to support.

      Also, and I don’t think this is factored in as much as it needs to be – Biden leading in the polls, or a Biden with a DNC-cooked candidacy, is not going to get all the progressives and liberals and millennials, etc.  Lots of them will sit it out or write in or whatever.    The days of the sheep obediently shuffling into the poll-leader’s chute are gone.  IMO.

    • #63023
      game meat
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,239

      From the poll:“Universal healthcare was one of the popular issues among Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections. We asked likely Democratic voters if they want their nominee to support Medicare-for-All, and at least two-thirds of voters across all three states said they want their nominee to support it. We found an average increase in support for Medicare-for-All of 5% in each state since February.”

      There’s only one candidate who really supports mfa, and that’s Sanders. Biden doesn’t and his healthcare plan is pretty much not having one.

      If mfa is as important to these voters as this suggests, then they are either very stupid or just don’t follow politics as closely as people here, making them ignorant of how weak Biden is on popular issues. I’m leaning towards the latter for now. Biden’s record is so at odds with where the people are in 2019, that there’s no way he doesn’t lose a lot of percentage points  once this stuff becomes common knowledge. He’s on the wrong side of too many issues.

      In Biden’s case, familiarity breeds contempt. He may still wind up 2020’s Jeb, hopefully.

    • #63027
      GZeusH
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,587

      Save this page and refer to it in February of next year.   Then try to explain any* discrepancy with the actual votes.

       

      *There might be a discrepancy, there might not; then again, bluebirds might fly out my ass, they might not.

    • #63029
      PADemD
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,926
    • #63036
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 14,449

      Firehouse Strategies was founded by backers of Marco Rubio in 2016, according to their own website.

      This means we should not believe them if they say rain is wet without independent confirmation. They’ll probably be like Rasmussen. Republicans want Biden to win the Democratic nomination because they know they can beat him. This is an early attempt at framing the narrative and giving Biden an aura of inevitability, not so different than what the Clinton campaign did for Trump in 2016.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

      • #63101
        Stockholmer
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 502

        Almost all the Rethugs are begging for a Sanders nomination. Warren is second.

        It will be non stop COMMMMMIE!!!! 24-7 for months.

        Groper Joe is actually one of those they fear the most.

        • #63327
          Ohio Barbarian
          Moderator
          • Total Posts: 14,449

          They say that, but they’re lying through their teeth. Republicans don’t fear Joe Biden. He has the same donors they do, supports the same financial, economic and foreign policies that they do, and only differs with them on insignificant identity politics social issues. He even goes to all the right parties.

          Biden would just be another Clinton or Obama who would cave to them 90% of the time. He’s also unlikely to carry the Midwestern states, and these Republicans are well aware of that. Hell, even Trump is.

          They fear Bernie Sanders for the same reason the Vichy Democrats do: He poses an existential threat to their livelihoods. The revolving door between lobbying, political office, and corporate board seats and lucrative speechifying opportunities could close. Their stocks would be depressed. Their donors might cut them off for failure. Worse than that, Bernie’s policies would be popular. His election could knock them back on their heels for decades, like FDR did.

          Republicans have been bald-faced lying to us since Nixon, and nonstop since Reagan. They’re clever at framing, and at helping Democratic voters pick the worst possible Democrats to represent those voters at the polls. They’ve been doing it most of my life. When it comes to Republican statements about which Democrat they fear most, 9 times out of 10 it’s a con job.

          Only the real independent-minded ones and those who are out of the game, like Karl Rove is now, sometimes let the truth slip through. Plus, this isn’t the 1950s anymore. Red-baiting is not going to work with the majority of American voters, and certainly not with anybody under 50, maybe 60.

          It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

          Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #63046
      Bearian
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 532
      <h1>No</h1>
      <h1 class=”vc_custom_heading”>Our Team</h1>
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      Terry Sullivan/Firehouse Strategies (photo by Allison Shelley)

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      <h4 class=”vc_custom_heading”>Terry Sullivan</h4>

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      Partner

      Terry Sullivan would prefer to be well-known for his mountaineering expeditions or captaining his boat long-distances offshore, but his two decades spent as a leader in politics and public affairs have distracted from his efforts to attain notoriety in those more interesting fields.

      Sullivan has played a senior strategic role in over 100 campaigns, including better than two dozen US Senate, Gubernatorial and Presidential campaigns. He has advised Republican candidates at every level, having been in some of the toughest political battles and emerging victorious. Over his career he has worked for some of the biggest names in politics, including Jesse Helms, Jim DeMint, Mitt Romney, Trey Gowdy and Marco Rubio, for whom he served as Campaign Manager on his presidential campaign.

      Sullivan is a founding partner of the public affairs firm Firehouse Strategies, where he advises Fortune 500 companies and trade associations on how best to deliver their message in a targeted and effective fashion. He has built and run multiple award-winning communications and media firms over the years, including TV, digital and print.

      Sullivan has a bachelor’s degree from UNC-Wilmington, and has served as an adjunct professor at George Washington Graduate School of Political Management and as a featured speaker at numerous universities including Harvard and NYU. He serves on the board of ClearPath, a conservative clean energy advocacy group.  He has appeared as an expert on numerous major and cable networks, as well as in major news publications ranging from The New York Times to National Review.

      Sullivan currently lives in Washington, DC where he hones his crisis management skills serving in his most impressive job: That of full-time single dad, raising his teenage daughter McKenna.

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      Alex Conant/Firehouse Strategies (photo by Allison Shelley)

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      <h4 class=”vc_custom_heading”>Alex Conant</h4>

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      Partner

      Alex Conant is a communications and media expert best-known for his work as the Communications Director for Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. A trusted Rubio advisor for over five years, he served as Sen. Rubio’s press secretary in the Senate before leading communications for his presidential bid and serving as a senior advisor on his Senate re-election campaign. As the presidential campaign’s Communications Director, he played a large role in shaping the Rubio campaign’s message and media strategy, and was the campaign’s senior spokesman.

      Conant has worked on every national election over the last 15 years, previously serving as Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s Communication Director during his 2012 presidential campaign and as a senior advisor on Sen. Joni Ernst’s successful 2014 Iowa senatorial campaign. Conant also served as the national press secretary for the Republican National Committee during the 2008 presidential campaign and as a White House spokesman during President George W. Bush’s second term.

      Conant is a political contributor for CBS News and regularly appears on FOX News, CNN, CNN International, MSNBC and CNBC to discuss politics and communications. He is a sought-after speaker on American politics and public relations: Since Rubio’s presidential campaign ended, he’s traveled to Africa, Australia and Europe for speaking engagements.

      He received his bachelor’s and a master’s degree in public affairs from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he was the editor-in-chief of the student daily, The Badger Herald.

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      FIREHOUSE Strategies Portraits May 18, 2016. Photo by Shealah Craighead

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      <h4 class=”vc_custom_heading”>Will Holley</h4>

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      Partner

      Will Holley is a veteran of fifteen years of political campaigns, governmental service, and public affairs consulting. Most recently, he served as an attorney and senior staffer on Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign where he was the chief advisor on delegate strategy and allocation rules. Prior to that, Holley spent five years working as a public affairs consultant to companies and associations ranging from Fortune 50 to startups, and across industries including tech, gaming, financial services, and telecommunications, among others. In that role, Holley worked on every aspect of public affairs campaigns, including survey research, coalition building and management, grassroots/grasstops engagement, paid media production and placement, digital/social media strategy, and earned media. He dealt with governmental entities ranging from State Public Utilities Commissions and Attorneys General, to Congress, to Executive branch agencies such as FTC, DOJ, and FCC, as well as international authorities.

      Holley began his career in the Office of the Press Secretary in George W. Bush’s White House, leaving the administration to manage a congressional race in West Virginia. From there, he became Press Secretary to Congressman Scott Garrett before being recruited back to the campaign trail as South Carolina Communications Director for Governor Mitt Romney’s first bid for the Republican nomination. Returning to Washington, Holley was Press Secretary for Citizens United throughout the course of its landmark First Amendment case, Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission.

      Holley holds a B.A. from the University of Notre Dame and a J.D. from Georgetown University.

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      Screen Shot 2018-08-14 at 3.44.29 PM

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      <h4 class=”vc_custom_heading”>Matt Terrill</h4>

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      Partner

      Matt Terrill has extensive experience working for political campaigns, state party political organizations, leadership PAC’s, national political party committees, and several leading national political figures.

      Most recently, during the 2016 election cycle, Matt worked as a consultant to the Republican Party of Florida, where he managed a multi-million-dollar effort that produced 9 million voter contacts for Senator Marco Rubio’s successful re-election campaign, promoted early voting and Senator Rubio’s message through a targeted direct mail operation, and assisted Republican candidates across Florida.

      Prior to Matt’s involvement with the Republican Party of Florida, he served as Chief of Staff to the Marco Rubio for President campaign. In that role, he assisted in managing a national staff of over 100 members and a complex multi-million-dollar enterprise.

      Leading up to Matt’s involvement with Senator Rubio’s presidential bid, he worked for the Senator as the Political Director for the Reclaim America Leadership PAC. As Political Director, Matt coordinated logistics and political operations associated with Senator Rubio’s efforts to elect Conservatives to the United States Senate.

      In 2011, Matt worked on Chairman Reince Priebus’s successful campaign for Chairman of the Republican National Committee and went on to serve as Special Assistant to Chairman Priebus at the RNC in Washington, DC.

      While at the RNC, Matt also helped coordinate the Party’s political operations for targeted House, Senate, and Gubernatorial races within the Midwest during the 2014 election cycle, an historic year when Republicans won majorities in both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate.

      A native of Wisconsin, Matt worked for the Republican Party of Wisconsin during the 2008 election cycle and has worked for over a dozen political campaigns in the Badger State.

      Matt is a graduate of Roosevelt University in Chicago, Illinois. He currently resides in Washington, DC.

    • #63048
      roody
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 411
    • #63053
      Dudester
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 438

      Let me guess – the two groups of 18-49’s are severely underpolled/not polled at all, amirite? ETA: And more Republicans than Democrats were polled?

       

    • #63077
      Pam2
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 5,589
    • #63085
      Cold Mountain Trail
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 8,751

      very interesting @bearian.  also interesting how the poster keeps coming up with polls with similar issues, all of which show sanders way behind & biden a huge favorite…

    • #63096
      greenfive
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      • Total Posts: 123
    • #63097
      bazukhov
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,683

      All 3 are either red or purple.   Conservative to moderate.

      It’s hardly surprising that they’d prefer Biden to Bernie.

      Tell me, great captain, how do the angels sleep when the devil leaves his porch light on? Tom Waites

    • #63104
      incognito
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 3,813

      :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

      :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

      Again, complete BULLSHIT.

      Iowa has been sooooo fucked over by Bush, Obama and Donald, there’s not a chance in hell they’re supporting ANOTHER CORRUPT OLIGARCH. That poll is absolutely ridiculous. Did you watch the 6 rallies/Town Halls Bernie had in Iowa Saturday and Sunday? I did. Joe Biden is NOT ahead in Iowa.

    • #63110
      rudycantfail
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 206

      It seems like the very very early polls that have come out are more or less in line with each other so it’s starting to become clear that it’s not randomly inaccurate. Either these pollsters are conspiring to make Biden the overwhelming front runner or the polls are reflecting reality. I suspect Biden is the front runner right now but maybe not by as much as these polls are showing.

    • #63112
      Dudester
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 438

      My guess is that the DNC-influenced pollsters are on marching orders to ignore the 18-49 groups and focus on 50+ polls and the landlines.

      Fuck them, and they are sampling the smallest group of Democratic morons. They represent about 24% of the total Democrats that aren’t millennials or X’ers. Biden is already ancient history, and like the last time, we’ll be patient and motivated while Biden shoots himself in the foot, repeatedly.

    • #63119
      djean111
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 4,050

      I am positive that all this poll crap is the run-up to the inevitable unity!!! beat Trump!!!! bullshit, if/when a Vichy Dem is Chosen.  Or, perhaps, smugness because a lot of us support Bernie and not someone else’s candidate.  Anyway, polls are so manipulated now that they are useless, IMO.    Ask Nate Silver…

      https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

      Hillary – 71.4%         Trump – 28.6%

      As of Nov. 8, 2016.  Bwahahahaha!

      Even more ridiculousness – the DNC says it can, and does,  rig things to name any candidate it wants, so the polls really mean doodly-squat, IMO.

    • #63124
      game meat
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,239

      Methodology: Between 04/30-05/02, we surveyed 1,695 likely primary voters in Iowa (N = 576), New Hampshire (N = 551), and South Carolina (N = 568) via live landline and cell, and text. Likely voters were defined as registered voters having voted in the 2016 or 2018 Democratic primaries, plus the 15% of additional individuals most likely to turnout based on in-house turnout modeling. Margin of error varies by question and segment but is generally ± 4.1 in IA, ± 4.0 in NH, and ± 4.5 in SC for toplines. Sample was weighted by age, gender, and party based on our likely voter universe. Results were then re-balanced based on these cohorts.

      This is all the information they provide. Nothing glaringly obvious like landlines only or polling mostly republicans. In theory, the results being weighted by age, etc, should take care of concerns about not polling enough younger voters; however, what they determine to be the “likely voter universe” could easily be intentionally skewed to favor Biden. Who knows.

      Firehouse is a consulting firm, so they are not doing this stuff for free. Someone is paying them. That being said, this isn’t the only poll showing Biden getting a big boost since he officially announced. In fact, every single poll has shown the same trend. Are they all full of shit? Maybe, maybe not. The clinton/trump polls were, but they were comically inaccurate.

      Either way, I still think Biden gets Jebbed once the debates start.

    • #63127
      salemcourt
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,433
    • #63203
      doh1304
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,193

      This is a final test for blatant election fraud. If we don’t reach for the pitchforks now the will steal the primaries. but since they do not control enough states they won’t be able to steal the general, so you know what that will mean.

    • #63232
      Cold Mountain Trail
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 8,751

      @gamemeat  Everyone gets a bump when they announce but Biden’s seems pretty spectacular & he’s apparently done it by taking most of Sanders’ support, which seems highly unlikely to me.  Except for being two old guys, what do they have in common, and more to the point, what do their voters have in common?  Bernie voters are suddenly going to swing for Biden?  I don’t see it.  Yet Bernie supposedly now gets 15% of votes when he was getting 40-50% and Biden’s now got 50% in a matter of days?  I don’t buy it.

    • #63259
      Snort McDork
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 3,760

      I CALL BULLSHIT!! This is the same type of poll that Clinton News Network ran a couple of weeks ago and got caught for tinkering with the numbers. NOT ONE SINGLE PERSON UNDER 40/50 WAS SURVEYED!! It was all over 50 crowd that was polled. Joe the hair sniffer is going to make some nice gaffs in the coming days. And when the polls come out FROM A NON-BIASED FIRM it will show this clown is a loser. Period. I’m looking forward to that day.

      I'm Snort McDork and I approved this message.

      "I like birdy num-nums"

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