North Carolina Looks Like Battleground Once Again For 2020
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Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are the best known Democrats, with levels of name recognition in the 80s, and Biden leads Trump 49-44 with Sanders leading Trump 48-45. Elizabeth Warren is the next best known with her level of name recognition in the 70s, and she ties Trump at 46%. Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke, and Cory Booker all have levels of name recognition in the 50s. Harris ties Trump at 45%, with Booker and O’Rourke each a tick behind Trump at 46-45.
vote for nobody
January 20, 2019 at 11:37 PM #14584ColorsoftheRainbowParticipant
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I consider North Carolina an emerging bellwether state.
In 2016, Donald Trump won a Republican pickup of the presidency but the U.S. Popular Vote was a Democratic hold for Hillary Clinton.
Donald Trump [R–New York] 45.93%
Hillary Clinton [D–New York] 48.02%
U.S. Popular Vote Margin: Democratic +2.09
Shift from 2012: Republican +1.77
Electoral College: Trump carried the 24 states, won in 2012 by his party’s losing nominee Mitt Romney, and their combined 206 electoral votes. Trump won 2016 Republican pickups from six states (four which rank among the Top 10 in population), as well as a congressional district, for a net gain of +100 to end up with 30 states, plus Maine #02, and 306 original electoral votes. (There were two faithless electors from states carried by Trump; five from states carried by Hillary.)
Pickup States for Trump:
(Trump won a pickup of Maine #02. But, while it is an electoral vote, it is a congressional district.)
Average Margin, for Trump, from Pickup States (minus Maine #02): +3.39
Margins Within Five Points of +3.39 (* are pickup states):
* Ohio — Trump +8.07 (his 23rd best state, of a carried 30, and his 188th electoral vote)
Georgia — Trump +5.10 (his 24th best state and his 204th electoral vote)
North Carolina — Trump +3.66 (his 25th best state and his 219th electoral vote)
Arizona — Trump +3.50 (his 26th best state and his 230th electoral vote)
[Nebraska #02] — Trump +2.23 (his 231st electoral vote)
* Florida — Trump +1.19 (his 27th best state and his 260th electoral vote)
* Wisconsin — Trump +0.76 (his 28th best state, the election’s tipping point state, and his 270th electoral vote)
* Pennsylvania — Trump +0.72 (his 29th best state and his 290th electoral vote)
* Michigan — Trump +0.22 (his 30th best state, of a carried 30 states, and his 306th original electoral vote)
New Hampshire — Hillary +0.36 (her 20th best state, of a carried 20 states, and her 232nd original electoral vote; not carried by Trump, New Hampshire was Trump’s 31st best state—making it ripe for pickup if he wins re-election in 2020)
Minnesota — Hillary +1.51 (her 19th best state and her 228th electoral vote; while not carried by Trump, Minnesota was Trump’s 32nd best state—giving it potential as a pickup for Trump if he wins re-election in 2020)
My conclusion is this: North Carolina is trending closer to national outcomes. Over the last five elections, the 2000s and 2010s, it voted for the winners in four of five elections. When it did not carry for re-electing Barack Obama, in 2012, because it flipped Republican for losing nominee Mitt Romney, it voted 5.90 percentage points more Republican than the nation. Obama won the U.S. Popular Vote by +3.86, down from his 2008 performance of +7.26. (Obama’s 2008 margin from his Democratic pickup of North Carolina: +0.33.) Romney flipped North Carolina with a margin of +2.04. In 2016, Hillary did win the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.09, while North Carolina carried for Trump by +3.66, making it 5.75 points more Republican than the nation. But, Election 2016 was a split-outcome one in which Trump won the Electoral College, yes, but the U.S. Popular Vote was won by Hillary because Trump erased Romney’s –3.86 (meaning reaching a shift of at least +3.87) in states worth only approximately 210 electoral votes. Trump reached the necessary national shift in just 8 of the top 20 populous states. Basically, Hillary held close to 60 percent of Obama’s margin, and held up in states worth approximately 328 electoral votes, but Trump flipped four Top 10 populous states—Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan—combining for +83 electoral votes being 19 more than what he needed for gains. So, where 2016 North Carolina came in was close to Trump’s average margin from his pickup states, suggesting the state is trending with the nation. I would guess it will vote again for the winner in 2020.
January 21, 2019 at 2:46 PM #14754Cold Mountain TrailParticipant
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thanks for that info & thanks for all your work on the op (your original work on the post, I assume?)
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