Post-Election Final Electoral Map Prediction

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    • #374954
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 21,914

      Warning: At first glance this might look weird. I certainly didn’t expect it last night.

      I make this prediction because we know how many votes separate Biden and Trump and how many per cent haven’t been counted, and where those votes were cast.

      Pennsylvania: Trump leads by 260,000. There are 900,000 uncounted ballots from Philadelphia alone, more from older suburban counties, which trend Democratic. Most of the Trump votes are already counted.

      Georgia: Similar story. All of the outstanding ballots are from Atlanta and an older suburban county that usually votes Democratic.

      Nevada: Some Democrat cheerleader is going to say Viva Las Vegas! All of the outstanding ballots are from Clark County, according to Jon Ralston, the great Nevada political journalist who knows his home state as well as Molly Ivins knew Texas.

      Michigan and Wisconsin have already been called for Biden, based on late-counted ballots from several cities.

      That corporatist vampire has already sucked $8000 from me thanks to his bankruptcy “reform,” and now the motherfucker’s going to be elected President with over 300 EVs, or a marginal Democratic victory in our little fundraising pool and poll.

       

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #374959
      ArtfromArk
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,622

      For a while, the state was the most progressive among Southern states, but it has recently reverted back to its redneck roots. Fukkin idiots.

      “There’s a new spirit abroad in the land. The old days of ‘grab and greed’ are on their way out. We’re beginning to think of what we owe the other fellow, not just what we’re compelled to give him. The time’s coming… when we shan’t be able to fill our bellies in comfort while others go hungry, sleep in warm beds while others shiver in the cold.... And God willing, we’ll live to see that day…” Basil Rathbone,"Sherlock Holmes Faces Death" (Universal 1943)

    • #374961
      ThouArtThat
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 4,544

      @ohiobarbarian

      Hi ob,

      Thanks. I am reminded that a Biden/Harris administration will truly mirror an Obama/Biden administration. And that simply because the republicans retain the Senate.

      Rest assured, the Turtle is already plotting another long winter of obfuscation as happened with Obama. Any progressive agenda, already diminished by Biden, now has little chance of seeing daylight with Mitch in charge.

      One would not be surprised to see Biden capitulate repeatedly just to crow about some trivial legislative accomplishment. Combined with lost seats in the House, Biden faces an even tougher challenge initiating a bold legislative agenda.

      It all adds up to 4 more years of 1% wealth consolidation and 99% wealth decimation. In other words “business as usual” for the Oligarchs, Corporations and Banks. As always and forever, socialism for the wealthy and savage capitalism for the rest.

      TAT

      “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."
      - John F. Kennedy

      "The further a society drifts from the truth the more it will hate those who speak it."
      - George Orwell

      "It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society."
      - Jiddu Krishnamurti

      "Sometimes a pessimist is only an optimist with extra information."
      - Idries Shah

      "A riot is the language of the unheard."
      - Martin Luther King

    • #374981
      NV Wino
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 8,258

      .

      “As we act, let us not become the evil that we deplore.” Barbara Lee
      “Politicians and pro athletes: The only people who still get paid when they lose.” William Rivers Pitt

    • #375015
      mrdmk
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 3,715

      It is fairly safe to say Biden’s actual lead is somewhere between your map and my map. The further this thing spreads out the better. As soon as Biden wins Nevada, it’s over.

      Here are some numbers from the Guardian UK (screen snapshot):

      If you cannot dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit WC Fields

      Warning DO NOT CLICK HERE!
    • #375149
      sadoldgirl
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,377

      @thouartthat:

      Come, come now. I do expect a new post office being

      named after Obama without too much interference

      from the turtle.

    • #375158
      ThouArtThat
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 4,544

      @sadoldgirl

      Hi sog,

      Yep, and for that to happen Biden/Harris will most likely concede to another 4 trillion in tax cuts for the 1%. With that kind of leverage, Mitch will rename every US post office after Obama.

      TAT

      “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."
      - John F. Kennedy

      "The further a society drifts from the truth the more it will hate those who speak it."
      - George Orwell

      "It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society."
      - Jiddu Krishnamurti

      "Sometimes a pessimist is only an optimist with extra information."
      - Idries Shah

      "A riot is the language of the unheard."
      - Martin Luther King

    • #375196
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 21,914

      @mrdmk It will continue to increase, because most of the ballots being counted now are from Reno and Las Vegas. That gets him to 270 right there. And Trump’s lead is rapidly evaporating in Georgia, and will soon disappear and stay gone. Hard to say with Pennsylvania, but the same thing is very possible there. I just don’t know enough about North Carolina to give an educated guess.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #375543
      N2Doc
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 8,843

      Looks like you nailed it.

      Now of course the depression happens, both economically and politically, as people realize Mitch ain’t gonna lift a finger to help run this country, and will be fighting every step of the way to make Biden a failed administration. No matter how RW Biden goes.

    • #375572
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 21,914

      @n2doc The Democrats blew the Senate and lost seats in the House. Of course, they won’t learn a thing, and will continue to go to the right. I fear grossly inadequate relief for the majority of Americans as the Second Great Depression deepens and evictions rise. If things don’t completely collapse in the next two years, the Republicans will take back the House.

      Then, in four years, if we have another election, either Donald Trump himself or a really Fascist Republican will win in 2024.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #377373
      ColorsoftheRainbow
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 675

       

      Wednesday, November 11, 2020—A very interesting outcome, @OhioBarbarian. (For illustrative purpose, the 2020 Democratic pickups on the above map appear in light blue.)

      Instead of winning the U.S. Popular Vote by something like +8, +9, or +10, the 2020 Democrats (and Joe Biden) will prevail nationally by +3 or +4. (Not all the votes are in in California. I think that may be true with New York.)

      With the exception of 1992, prevailing Democrats since 1960 have carried +21 or +22 states in excess of their percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. That may prove to be the case again, here in 2020, as Joe Biden is on track to carry 25 states (50 percent of the nation’s states) with Arizona (called by some) and Georgia (called by none) a part of that Moderate Democratic Wave.

      Given unseated Republican incumbent Donald Trump has presided over COVID–19 striking this country in March 2020, and there was reportedly national polls showing Trump would become badly unseated, this was really underwhelming. The Democrats (and Joe Biden) should have flipped North Carolina, their No. 26 best-performed state, and Florida, their No. 27 best-performed state, according to the latest numbers at Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Elections. (Nos. 28 to 30 are Texas, Ohio, and Iowa.)

      This is the first presidential election in which Ohio did not vote with the winner since 1960. (From 1964 to 2016, it carried 52 years running with 14 consecutive election cycles. Historically, the record for unbroken streak belongs to both Nevada and New Mexico. From 1912, when New Mexico entered the union and voted for the first time, the two voted with all winners for the 60 years and 16 consecutive cycles of 1912 to 1972.)

      This is the first presidential election in which both Florida and Ohio did not vote with the winner since the 1960 Democratic pickup of the presidency for John Kennedy. (Richard Nixon never lost in Ohio and/or Florida.)

      Salute the Rust Belt trio Michigan, Pennsylvania and, it was the tipping-point state in 2016 and may be again here in 2020, Wisconsin! They are the only three states which voted with each winner over the last four election cycles of 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. (The Rust Belt trio are likely nowadays the nation’s best bellwether states.) Important to note because this may be the confirmation needed to let us know for sure that we are realignment in favor of the Democrats. Since 2008, they have won three of the last four cycles.  And a political party which achieves that has historically been on the positive sign of a realigning period favorable to a given political party winning the majority of the 30 to 40 years’ of cycles for the presidency of the United States. The Republicans won three of four in 1968, 1972, and 1980. Now the Democrats follow suit 40 years later.)

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