Presidential election snapshot–Trump now at risk of losing Missouri, Ohio, Utah, and Texas

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    • #322948
      Ohio Barbarian
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      This map is based on RCP polls since May 21st. The only states with dark blue or dark red are the states where either Biden or Trump have leads of over 10% in polls May 21st or later. The light blue or pink states have not been recently polled, and are based on 2016 results. All tossup states are within 5 points in polls since May 21.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #322950
      N2Doc
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      And when he comes out, expect polls to go the other way.

      • #323463
        EvilLurker
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        • Total Posts: 12

        I agree. The more he speaks the lower his polling will go. He can’t still be the nominee by time the debates roll around unless the Dems don’t care about winning at all.

    • #322951
      ArtfromArk
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      It’s gone for the Democratic candidate in every election in my 6 decades of life,

      • #322956
        Ohio Barbarian
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        @artfromark Hillary barely carried Minnesota, winning by just 1.5%, so this isn’t a surprise now.  The last poll from there had Biden up by 5, so by my standards, it’s a tossup. The Clintons and Obama fucked over the Midwest hard. Most Democrats are not trusted here, for good reason.

        OTOH, Republicans aren’t trusted much, either. Both parties suck.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

      • #323539
        ColorsoftheRainbow
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        @ArtfromArk writes,

        “[The State of Minnesota has] gone for the Democratic [presidential] candidate in every election in my 6 decades of life,”

        The last Republican to carry Minnesota was 1972 re-elected Richard Nixon, against Democratic challenger George McGovern, as he won a 1972 Republican pickup of Minnesota with winning his second term.

        Dwight Eisenhower, as the Republican pickup winner in 1952 and in a Republican hold with re-election in 1956, was the last Republican-affiliated U.S. president elected to more than one term who carried Minnesota every time. (During the Democratic presidential realigning period of 1932 to 1964, in which the party won 7 of 9 cycles, Minnesota was carried in all 9 presidential election cycles.)

        As a 1976 Democratic pickup winner for the presidency, Jimmy Carter flipped and carried Walter Mondale’s home state. It has been in the party’s column ever since. (So, 11 consecutive election cycles.)

        Since 1960, that 1972 cycle was the only time Minnesota was willing to carry Republican for U.S. President. (So, 14 of the last 15 election cycles.)

        What is developing though, in Minnesota, is its level of blue is not as strong as other Democratic-aligned states likes Maryland and Massachusetts. (That is to name two other states which begin with the same initial.)

        Minnesota is probably +3 or +4 points more Democratic vs. how the nation votes. (I’m referring to percentage-points margins.)

        Had 2016 Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote, his margin would have been between +2.15 to +2.64. Minnesota was –1.51. So, I estimate Minnesota is +3 to +4 points more Democratic vs. the nation. It was the 2016 Democrats’ No. 19 best state. (The typically need 22 to 23 carried states to reach 270.) It was, for the 2016 Republicans, their No. 32. Since 1992, the average number of carried states have been 29 with the range 26 to 32.

        If Donald Trump is to end up winning re-election, here in 2020, Minnesota is vulnerable to flipping for him. That, I think, is an awareness @ohiobarbarian has.

        If Election 2020 ends up a Democratic pickup of the presidency, everything—including Minnesota—from the party’s 2016 column will carry. As the starting point. Before what else flips would be what strings together victory on the electoral map.

        What I do anticipate may happen, in the next particular presidential election cycle which switches the White House from the Democratic to the Republican column (as was the case in 2016), is that Minnesota may very well flip to that pickup winning Republican.

    • #322954
      Mr. Mickeys Mom
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      Biden is operating at full potential, which is not enough and I believe will not stand to result in a nominee at the Democratic convention.

      Something is either going to destroy Trump or Biden pretty soon.

      Hell, no... I'm not giving up...

      • #322957
        Ohio Barbarian
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        • Total Posts: 14,814

        @mrmickeysmom Wouldn’t that be a riot? (pun intended)

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #322967
      Jim Lane
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      @ohiobarbarian

      My go-to site for poll aggregation is electoral-vote.com.  They have Iowa as close, based on a PPP poll of May 1 that found Trump ahead by only 48%-46%.  On that basis, you could switch Iowa from pink to brown (i.e. tossup).

      They also have Georgia as narrowly Democratic (within the margin of error).  Their source is a Civiqs poll of May 18: Biden 48%, Trump 47%.  That’s another Trump win from 2016 that, at least on current polling, is in play.  Notably, all your brown states except Minnesota were Trump wins.

      PPP and Civiqs are identified with the left but aren’t strictly partisan.  The electoral-vote.com standard is: “Pollsters whose primary business is helping Democrats or Republicans get elected are not used.”  Perhaps RCP, a conservative site, refuses to include results from those two pollsters.

      • #322973
        Ohio Barbarian
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        @jimlane I’m not saying those polls are wrong. I’m only saying that this is a snapshot according to the most readily accessible data, which does include several recent PPP polls. If you go to Real Clear Politics and click on Latest Polls, that page and its links to battleground states or to any state you wish are my sources for this particular post.

        I wouldn’t characterize RCP as conservative. They feature articles written by defenders of the oligarchy of all stripes, and both Democrat and Republican political hacks. I mainly focus on their polls, which include Civitas and PPP as well as all of the standard ones. They throw in some good local polls as well from time to time.

        I’m just trying to provide current snapshots. I think I’ll keep this map as a base and do this again every two weeks or so and see if patterns or trends develop. I’m not making any predictions for November right now. Things are too volatile.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

      • #322984
        Red Cloud
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        It seems their main purpose is make folks conform to mediocrity.

        What ever happened to crushing defeats like LBJ over Goldwater? Nixon over McGovern? What MSM wants are terrified people glued to the sets, so the $ can keep flowing.

        It matters not what they say currently the margins are, as WAPO will come out eventually and say, “Hey Biden up by only a few points within the margin of error”.  Energizing one base with hope and depressing the other side with after all this shit we are in a tie?

        • #322994
          Ohio Barbarian
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          @redcloud It doesn’t necessarily make them incapable of doing what they were designed to do. They are pretty good at identifying political trends, IMHO, if one pays attention to them over time.

          Some polls, of course, are just paid hacks that deliberately and systematically skew the results, and they normally come in as outliers when compared to the majority of them. That’s why RCP doesn’t use Rasmussen in its averages.

          Other than trends, polls can provide relevant snapshots of how Americans are thinking about politics and issues at different moments in time. For example, 78% think the protests against police are reasonable, and 54% think that burning down the Minneapolis police precinct was justifiable. That’s a  remarkable shift from how most Americans felt about police not very long ago.

          And that is reflected in this map, in a way. Most people are angry at how Trump is handling things right now. That’s going to affect political polls.

          It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

          Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #322995
      Punxsutawney
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      That any state where conservatives control the voting apparatus (electronic voting machines) will flip results that are within 5-10% points to tRump. This is how I knew Hillary was going to lose about a week before the 2016 election.

      And watch for the chance that they try to pull the 12th amendment out and have a number of red states refuse to certify their election results, riots, violence illegal voting, doesn’t matter if it’s all bullshit if Fox and rw radio says it’s true.  Anyone that thinks the Rethugs will play fair on any level is a fool at this point. The question is what to do if and when they pull shit like this.

      Our democracy is at serious risk here, assuming we have any left at all.

      In America, “Liberty” means “Free to Die in Service of Capital” - Amfortas the hippie

      • #323008
        Ohio Barbarian
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        @punxustawney Polls don’t determine anything. They do, however, show us the effects of voter suppression and outright election fraud. In that sense, they are evidence.

        I’m not worried about Republicans pulling any shit like invoking the 12th Amendment if Biden wins, though. They know he’ll surrender to their donors’ interests because they have the same donors the Democrats do. Does either major party leadership really care if it’s Trump or Biden?

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

        • #323023
          Punxsutawney
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          • Total Posts: 1,713

          In a quiet and non confrontational way that they would prefer. They don’t give a shit about social justice, but economic justice is another matter, and Biden is no threat to them.  I’m more worried about the criminal class, and what they may do within the Republicans that might fear being investigated, starting with Cheeto in Chief.

          Agreed on polls.

          In America, “Liberty” means “Free to Die in Service of Capital” - Amfortas the hippie

      • #323009
        ArtfromArk
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      • #323017
        Jim Lane
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        @punxsutawney

        The requirement under the Constitution is not for 270 electoral votes.  It’s for a majority of the electors who are appointed.  If a state refuses to certify electoral results, and thus doesn’t appoint electors, then the threshold for a majority goes down.

        Unless the election is very close, the only way that a red-state conspiracy could make this work would be to declare the election results invalid and to then have the Republican-controlled state legislature appoint the electors, even if the popular vote in that state went the other way.

        In the age of Trump, one hesitates to say something like “Even they wouldn’t do that.”  Still, I think that casting aside the popular vote, and having the electors appointed by what amounts to a cabal, would be a bridge too far even for the GOP.  Some Republicans would oppose it because they do have at least some principled adherence to representative democracy.  Some (perhaps more) would oppose it for fear of the repercussions to their own political careers.  Add those defectors to a unanimous Democratic opposition.  My guess is that any state where the Democratic nominee won the popular vote would be divided closely enough that overriding the election just wouldn’t fly.

    • #323098
      a little weird
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      Excuse me while I go hang my head in shame…

      • #323126
        Ohio Barbarian
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        Kentucky is the only state where Trump had more than a ten point lead, or even a five point lead, in polls since May 21.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #323102
      game meat
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      If I understand the op correctly, the pink states just don’t have recent polls yet, but were red states in 2016. Besides, there’s a feeling of deja-vu to the whole thing. The democrats had their hopes up for winning Texas last time too, but couldn’t even win PA. @alittleweird

      • #323131
        Ohio Barbarian
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        • Total Posts: 14,814

        That’s exactly what it means. It doesn’t mean I think Alabama is close. Once another poll or polls from there come out, I’m sure I’ll color it dark red and Illinois dark blue.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #323439
      ColorsoftheRainbow
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      @ohiobarbarian,

      In United States presidential election cycles which switch the party, the out party coming into that given election will carry everything that was in their column from the previous cycle while they win a party pickup of the presidency of the United States.

      It’s about direction.

      If the opposition party is winning a pickup of the presidency, the national wave (from the previous cycle) is also taking effect state after state—usually more than 40 states; sometime more than 45 states—with the shifting of states and districts in the direction of the pickup-winning party.

      All 50 states, and District of Columbia, shifted in the direction of 1976 Democratic pickup winner Jimmy Carter. 49 states shifted in the directions of 1980 Republican pickup winner Ronald Reagan, 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton, and 2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush. 45 states shifted in the direction of 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama. And, with some deviation from historic, normal pattern, there were some states that shifted away from but ultimately 39 states shifted in the direction of 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump.

      If Election 2020 ends up a Democratic pickup for U.S. President, I would not be surprised if at least 45 states shift in the direction of that 2020 Democratic presidential pickup winner. After all, it is reasonable to ask and answer the following question: Which states are shifting in the direction of Republican incumbent Donald Trump? Possibly California, which had an abnormally high margin for 2016 losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton (+29.99; she performed nearly +28 points above national support; California, for Democrats, usually spots +15 to +20 above the party’s national support; so the state may scale back some excess numbers—say, –3 points—in order to stabilize. To carry California again by +30 points, the 2020 Democratic pickup winner will probably need the U.S. Popular Vote to reach +10. Which is possible. If California shifts its 2016-to-2020 margins toward the Republicans, which would not be dramatic, it would echo what happened with 1988-to-1992 Iowa—a stabilization with the statewide vs. national margin). Possibly Utah, which gave 2016 Trump an abnormally low margin because Evan McMullin was on the ballot and received more than 20 percent its statewide vote. (Trump carried Utah by +17.88, above second-place Hillary Clinton, and Republicans usually carry Utah north of +25. John McCain, failing to hold the White House for the Republicans in 2008, carried Utah by +27.98. Mitt Romney, the losing Republican challenger of 2012, carried Utah by +47.88. Utah used to be the Republicans’ best state. No. 1 now is Wyoming.) As for any other states, I don’t think so. (I list the 2016 margins at the bottom of this post.)

      Yes, Minnesota was a 2016 Democratic hold by only +1.51. But, New Hampshire was also a Democratic hold by +0.36. Had Donald Trump won a Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote, in 2016, his margin would have been not –2.09 but more like +2. (A pickup winning Republican or Democrat tends to win a net gain of +1 state with each percentage point nationally shifted. Romney lost the U.S. Popular Vote by –3.86. Trump won a net gain of +6 states: Top 10 populous Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan; No. 20 Wisconsin; No. 32 Iowa; and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. If Donald Trump is to end up winning re-election, those two states—plus statewide Maine—are susceptible for 2020 Republican pickups. (No past electoral map has been duplicated. Most incumbents who win second terms prevail with higher electoral-vote scores.)

      If Election 2020 switches the White House party from Republican to Democratic, everything in the 2016 Democratic column will carry—and likely so with increased margins support (unless a given state is trending Republican; if that is the case, such state will carry for pickup-winning party but come up with a margin lower than the party’s win in the U.S. Popular Vote).

       

      Here is what carried in the 2016 Democratic column:

       

      If Election 2020 becomes a Democratic pickup for U.S. President (and if they hit +5 in the U.S. Popular Vote, they will also flip the U.S. Senate), here is a map in which they win the U.S. Popular Vote by +8 (say, 53 to 45 percent) and carry 30 states (with light shades as pickups):

       

      If Election 2020 ends up switching the White House from Republican to Democratic, and there were to be carriage of 40 states (which, for the party, hasn’t been reached since 1964 Lyndon Johnson), with a margin in the U.S. Popular Vote of +18 (say, 58 to 40 percent), here is my estimate of the map:

       

       

      ELECTION 2016: MARGINS

      Here were the margins of those which carried (* for pickup) for Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump:

      — Nebraska #03 +54.19 (cumulative 01 electoral vote)
      01. Wyoming +46.30 (cum. 04)
      02. West Virginia +41.68 (cum. 09)
      03.  Oklahoma +36.39 (cum. 16)
      04. North Dakota +35.73 (cum. 19)
      05. Idaho +31.76 (cum. 23)
      06. Kentucky +29.84 (cum. 31)
      07. South Dakota +29.79 (cum. 34)
      08. Alabama +27.73 (cum. 43)
      09. Arkansas +26.92 (cum. 49)
      10. Tennessee +26.01 (cum. 60)
      11. Nebraska [statewide] +25.05 (cum. 62)
      Nebraska #01 +20.72 (cum. 63)
      12. Kansas +20.42 (cum. 69)
      13. Montana +20.23 (cum. 72)
      14. Louisiana +19.64 (cum. 80)
      15. Indiana +19.01 (cum. 91)
      16. Missouri +18.51 (cum. 101)
      17. Utah +17.89 (cum. 107)
      18. Mississippi +17.80 (cum. 113)
      19. Alaska +14.73 (cum. 116)
      20. South Carolina +14.27 (cum. 125)
      — * Maine #02 +10.28 (cum. 126)
      21. * Iowa +9.41 (cum. 132)
      22. Texas +8.98 (cum. 170)
      23. * Ohio +8.07 (cum. 188)
      24. Georgia +5.10 (cum. 204)
      25. North Carolina +3.66 (cum. 219)
      26. Arizona +3.50 (cum. 230)
      — Nebraska #02 +2.23 (cum. 231)
      27.* Florida +1.19 (cum. 260)
      28. * Wisconsin +0.76 (cum. 270)—Tipping-Point State
      29. * Pennsylvania +0.72 (cum. 290)
      30. * Michigan +0.22 (cum. 306)


      Here were the margins of those which carried for losing Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton:

      District of Columbia +86.78 (cumulative 03 electoral votes)
      01. Hawaii +32.18 (cum. 07)
      02. California +29.99 (cum. 62)
      03. Massachusetts +27.20 (cum. 73)
      04. Maryland +26.42 (cum. 83)
      05. Vermont +26.41 (cum. 86)
      06. New York +22.49 (cum. 115)
      07. Illinois +16.89 (cum. 135)
      08. Washington +15.71 (cum. 147)
      09. Rhode Island +15.51 (cum. 151)
      Maine #01 +14.81 (cum. 152)
      10.New Jersey +13.98 (cum. 166)
      11. Connecticut +13.64 (cum. 173)
      12. Delaware +11.37 (cum. 176)
      13. Oregon +10.98 (cum. 183)
      14. New Mexico +8.21 (cum. 188)
      15. Virginia +5.32 (cum. 201)
      16. Colorado +4.91 (cum. 210)
      17. Maine [statewide] +2.96 (cum. 212)
      18. Nevada +2.42 (cum. 218)
      19. Minnesota +1.51 (cum. 228)
      20. New Hampshire +0.37 (cum. 232)

      • #323449
        Ohio Barbarian
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        @colorsoftherainbow You sound so certain. I don’t think that certainty is justified at all. Never before in our history have we had an election in a year of a pandemic, the beginning of a Great Depression, and with an incumbent President anything at all like Donald Trump. Just saying it could be very different, and it’s way too early to make any guesses as to which way it will go.

        For that matter, we can’t even be sure who the two candidates are yet.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #323513
      ColorsoftheRainbow
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      @ohiobarbarian writes,

      @colorsoftherainbow You sound so certain. I don’t think that certainty is justified at all.”

      Since 1860, every U.S. president has been affiliated with either the Republican or the Democratic Party.

      A total of 156 years.

      A period of 40 consecutive election cycles.

      I am certain, without being cocky, that the winner of the 2020 United States presidential election will be someone who is affiliated with either the Republican or the Democratic Party.

      “Never before in our history have we had an election in a year of a pandemic, the beginning of a Great Depression, and with an incumbent President anything at all like Donald Trump. Just saying it could be very different, and it’s way too early to make any guesses as to which way it will go.”

      If Election 2020 results in a Democratic pickup of the presidency of the United States—which would also mean the unseating of Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump—the catalyst will be COVID–19.

      It will be the coronavirus pandemic having struck on the watch, here in the United States, of a Republican-affiliated U.S. president who is specifically Donald Trump.

      People who are especially suffering unemployment, and know the current year is not only a leap year but a presidential election year, know who is U.S. president and which of the two major political parties with whom that incumbent is affiliated.

      “For that matter, we can’t even be sure who the two candidates are yet.”

      You can take the risk and go with: Donald Trump (R) vs. Joe Biden (D).

      The candidates aren’t the No. 1 determining factor.

      A lot of elections are not just about a specific candidate.

      They’re having to do with status (is it an incumbent year or is the president term limited?); the circumstances; the conditions; and—this is really important—the timing of that upcoming election.

      Had COVID–19 struck, here in the United States, one year later then that would have been preferable for Republican incumbent Donald Trump and his party. The economy having been favorable for him, prior to COVID–19 here in the United States, was suggestive that Trump would have no problem defeating Biden with winning a second term. The trajectory of that races changed with COVID–19.

      The timing, for Trump and down-ballot the Republican Party (very much including the U.S. Senate), is absolutely bad.

      Your topic thread lists specific states that gave the 2016 Republican presidential/vice-presidential ticket strong margins. Two of those states are Top 10 populous states. One is a Top 20 populous state. Your home state, Ohio, was the pickup state among the four mentioned. And, at this point (June 2020), they are indicating conspicuous shifts away from the incumbent (Republican) and toward the opposition (Democratic) party.

      I have seen this as well with Top 20 populous state Tennessee (the best margin for 2016 Donald Trump) and neighboring Kentucky.

      When all that goes on, you have to look to see if there are any states, or districts, apparently shifting toward the incumbent party and Donald Trump.

      I barely see anything.

      That means, from where things are looking four to five months out, the math isn’t there for Trump to win re-election.

      This isn’t merely a feeling of being “certain.”

      This is about understanding the situation. I look to math. I look to data. I look to patterns. I look to referencing past examples of history.

      My sense is this: Election 2020 is shaping up to become a Democratic wave election in which both U.S. President and U.S. Senate flip to the Democrats. They win the presidency with a U.S. Popular Vote of no less than +4. My guess is, right now, they’re more like +7 which would include flipping Texas. They win the U.S. Senate, to come along with the presidency, if they win the U.S. Popular Vote by no less than +5. The tipping-point seat would be the special election, the seat held by Kelly Loeffler, in Georgia. The U.S. House, which was a Democratic pickup with the midterm elections of 2018, will end up a Democratic hold.

      Keep in mind: During the 20th century, every opposition-party challenger who unseated an incumbent U.S. president had a national shift of at least +10 points and, while winning a party pickup of the presidency, the U.S. Senate ended up in their column as well. Party pickups of the U.S. Senate, along with U.S. President, occurred with 1912 Woodrow Wilson, 1932 Franklin Roosevelt, and 1980 Ronald Reagan. (1976 Jimmy Carter and 1992 Bill Clinton entered their election years with the U.S. Senate already in their party’s column.)

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