Professor Who Accurately Predicted 25 out of 27 Elections Predicts a Trump 2020 Win

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    • #335270
      So Far From Heaven
      Keymaster
      • Total Posts: 6,004

      O-K, I know this is gonna draw a lot of ire.

      LINK

      So just back off and think about it. I have zero clue if this professor knows jack shit, but his model sure seems to.

      I have been watching the left wing news for a long time now, and their polls and numbers may be totally bogus in the end. Why?

      It all boils down to less than ten states. My state ain’t gonna elect Orange Face no matter what. Don’t think New York is gonna elect him either. So it’s pretty much down to a small handful of states, and he took most of them last time.

      So what’s going to stop him from taking them this time?

      Everything comes down to getting your supporters to the polls. And he certainly does that. Mr Biden can’t get his dog to the polls. His cat just stares at him and goes back to sleep. Those two are his most vocal supporters.

      I suggest you read this and contemplate the correlation between getting the base riled up and winning the primaries first, then the general after.

      Check this out:

      Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University–who forecasted Trump’s 2016 win eight months ahead of the election and has accurately predicted 25 out of 27 elections–said on Fox News’ The Ingraham Angle that Trump’s reelection chances are above 90 percent.

      “The key to the November election is the primaries,” Norpoth said, adding Trump won Republican primaries quite easily while presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden had difficulty winning delegates. “On balance, a stronger performance in primaries gives Donald Trump the edge in November.”

      It seems that primary enthusiasm is essential to election.

      If true, so much for getting rid of the piece of shit in November.

    • #335280
      N2Doc
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 7,597

      Well, I think the incumbent prez generally wins re-election. Carter and GHW Bush the obvious outliers. This year could be another.

      IMO, it will depend on how far out there Trump goes in his insanity, how bad the Virus impacts are, and how well the Dems can hide Biden from any scrutiny about his mental condition and his history.

    • #335283
      leftcoast mountains
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 4,378

      letters in your post. I don’t like Trump winning either. But I also don’t think Biden will be that different. Both of them pain me.  In my state it doesn’t matter. But I will not be voting for Biden. My latest thought is to write in “None of the above” and leave it at that.

      vote for nobody

    • #335284
      Nick Xylas
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 123

      And then the Vichy Democrats will pretend to be outraged at how the electorate failed Joe Biden, while ramping up the fundraising.

      “The United States is also a one-party state but, with typical American extravagance, they have two of them.” -Julius Nyerere

    • #335286
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 14,824

      And voter turnout for Trump, in uncontested primaries, was very high. In Texas, for example, more people voted for Trump than all of the Democrats combined.

      The problem with his theory is that many of the primaries came before the pandemic hit and we entered the Second Great Depression. I go with the polls. Right now, Joe Biden would win at least 350 Electoral College votes. The polls were accurate in 2016, it’s just that Trump won every state he had to where he trailed within the margin of error.

      Now, Biden is leading him by a much greater margin than Hillary ever did. Unless something really, really major happens to turn things around, Trump is toast. Of course, Joe Biden hasn’t been on the debate stage with Trump yet, so it’s possible he’ll screw up so bad he blows it. I don’t see any other way Trump can win right now. Only Joe Biden can save him, as I see it.

      Of course, Trump could call for national health insurance, UBI, and ending the wars, and then he’d win in a landslide, but that doesn’t seem very likely.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #335304
      Punxsutawney
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 1,713

      Voter suppress and commit election fraud in swing states. Something that they excel at, and Dems have done little or nothing to fight. Despite lies to the contrary, Biden under Obama is the poster child for the type of Democrat who has done little to nothing here.

      And then there’s the other options here such as some states refusing to certify the election and throwing it into the house. The rethugs left that haven’t joined the neoliberal wing of the Dems have absolutely no moral compunctions about doing whatever they need to hold onto power. Short of the election being so overwhelming that it won’t be tolerated by the populace…wouldn’t hold my breath here.

      In America, “Liberty” means “Free to Die in Service of Capital” - Amfortas the hippie

      • #335308
        So Far From Heaven
        Keymaster
        • Total Posts: 6,004

        @punxsutawney except the fraud. That has never been proven to me. Lots of peripheral stuff, but nothing concrete anyway.

        And the damn virus is bad news for Biden any way you cut it. So, he has no real heavy duty support, and now one of the bases he needs to really bring to the polls is out, namely the old and infirm.

        I have this sneaking suspicion that this guys methodology is actually correct. What killed The Shill?

        No enthusiasm. Stayed home in the states that mattered. Got beat up.

        No matter how you slice and dice it, those states are at best purple and if the blue stays home, the red wins.

    • #335337
      sadoldgirl
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 818

      While we know from 16 that we cannot trust the polls,

      this year is definitely different due to the pandemic.

      Trump mishandled this too much for a good come back.

    • #335353
      Fasttense
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 873

      I don’t trust Fox. And this professor sounds like a “make Trump feel good when he watches” story.

      What with all the vote rigging and dementia in the candidates it’s still a toss up. Do you want facist, psychopath Trump or conservative, demented, trickle-down Biden?

      Maybe if Trump continues to infect and kill off his own voters then it will allow Biden to poke his head out of his hole and claim victory for the GOP never Trumpers or something. I have never seen such an awful Democratic candidate since Reagan.

      But I really look forward to a debate between the 2 senile old conservative candidates. It will be hillarous.

    • #335366
      A Simple Game
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 799

      Having Trump on a debate stage with nothing to lose against Biden?  I can picture Biden behind his podium curled up in a fetal position lying in a puddle of his own drool.

    • #335382
      Thom Paine
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 267

      I see what I believe to be more and more signs that the Oligarchy is ready to dump the Trump.  The SCOTUS ruled against him personally.  Why not let Biden win?  He will be useful to the Oligarchy without the drama from their boy Trump.

       

    • #335463
      peacecorps
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,063

      he stands a good chance of winning a second term.“

      That’s a pretty big IF. 🙂

      They are called 'human' rights not "if politicians do not feel threatened" rights. Many politicians see national sovereignty/security as more important because they protect their power and wealth. Human rights often do just the opposite.

      National issues (slavery/racism, income inequality, pandemics and pathetic health care, weak unions) are not solved with more states' rights. Global problems (climate change, migration, trade, war, pandemics) are not resolved with more national sovereignty.

    • #335496
      JonLP
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,169

      Based on what he says I think Sanders would have won in a landslide because of how well he did in the first 3 states and came in 2nd in pretty much every state he didn’t win. The media & party did everything to stop and hurt themselves with a weaker candidate.

    • #335518
      a little weird
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 651

      I think coronavirus will mess up his model this year.  Trump’s response has just been too inept.  But then again, if anyone can grab defeat from the jaws of victory, it’s Joe Biden.

    • #335535
      Babel 17
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 3,449

      “Damn those Molotov cocktail throwing advocates of a better deal for the 99%!”

      Just like how Clinton had the 2016 election in the bag until a Bernie Bro threw a chair. Or picked one up, whatever. 😉

    • #335544
      Captain Arizona
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 169

      On election night 2016 the  national polls were within the margin of error. However as we don’t elect a president by popular vote it came down to state polls which are notoriously inaccurate. Arizona, florida, michigan, north carolina, pennsylvania and wisconsin. will decide who is president. Trump will need 5 out of the 6. Talking about who is ahead in those 6 states is important every thing else unimportant. More accurate polling is needed if we are to understand 2020 election.

    • #335556
      3fingerbrown
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,667

      If this guy correctly predicted 25 out of 27 presidential elections than that would make him about 130 years old, assuming he was an adult back in 1912 when he made his first prediction, if my math is correct, but if they aren’t refering to presidential elections than his “correct” predictions could be for the local dog catcher for all we know, since the article doesn’t say. So this is pretty useless as far as I’m concerned.

      All governments lie to their citizen's, but only Americans believe theirs.

    • #335558
      JonLP
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,169

      Norpoth’s research focuses on multiple subjects in political science, including public opinion and electoral behavior, and predicting the results of elections in the United States, Great Britain, and Germany.[2][3]

      Norpoth developed the Primary Model, a statistical model he uses to predict the results of United States presidential elections based on data going back to 1912. According to his Web site Primary model, he has used the model to correctly predict five of six presidential elections from 1996 to 2016[4], including Donald Trump‘s victory in the 2016 election.[5] This model is based on two factors: whether the party that has been in power for a long time seems to be about to lose it, and whether a given candidate did better in the primaries than his or her opponent.[5] In February 2015, he projected that Republicans had a 65 percent chance of winning the general election the following year.[6] In 2016, this model gained significant media attention because it predicted that Donald Trump would win the general election.[7] In response to critics who cited polls in which Clinton led Trump by a significant margin, Norpoth said that these polls were not taking into account who will actually vote in November, writing, “…nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through.”[8]

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmut_Norpoth

    • #335559
      PADemD
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,964

      This is the only poll my son trusts.  It correctly predicted that Hillary would lose in 2016.  Poll released at the beginning of each month.

      Trump Job Approval, Direction Of Country: IBD/TIPP Poll

      https://www.investors.com/politics/ibdtipp-poll-presidential-approval-direction-of-country/

    • #335609
      David the Gnome
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,609

      For now.  There are still a few months to go and remember, the polls favored Clinton, too.  Yes, Trump could win 2020, especially if the dems are too overconfident.  2016, very few expected a Trump win – not even Trump.

      Not sure it really matters at this point.  Biden is even more of a hawk than Trump – and is considerably to the right of Nixon on most issues.  I’m really tempted to sit this one out.  Not sure what difference it will make for most of us.

      It is a kleptocracy.  Biden wins – it will be more of the same with a different corporate tone.  “Nothing will fundamentally change”.

      That’s the problem.  Neither of them give a shit – and we are being asked to choose between them… Coke or diet coke?  Either one is full of shit that is bad for you.

    • #335617
      Satan
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 3,238

      In the first half of the contests, it was only the size of the Republican clown car that allowed him to “win” with 30% of the votes. And in many of those states, the Republican party has a “winner take all” party with the delegates. The Orange Imbecile didn’t win an actual majority (50% or better) in any primary until NY state, which was about half way through the primary season. And even then, he couldn’t claim a decisive win over Cruz & Kasich until very late into the season. Cheeto’s kids even tried to buy off Kasich by promising him the “Vice President in charge of everything” offer, in order to get him to drop out and concede his handful of delegates to their insane daddy.

      Biden’s primary wins in 2020 are even less legitimate. Most of the states he “won” before Bernie dropped out were questionable at best, and most of them were in red states where he wouldn’t have a snowball’s chance in my back yard of winning in November.

      So, if the professor is basing his theory around primary performance, his theory has more holes in it than a 666 pound block of swiss cheese.

      "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable". - John F. Kennedy

    • #335740
      JonLP
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,169
    • #335842
      Woman Hear Me Roar!!
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 62

      Trump will win…mark my words.  I see his loss in much the same way I see Hillary’s – they live in a bubble and think everyone thinks as they do.

      The DNC once again picked a shitty candidate….and so Trump will walk away with the prize and we will the people will live in a shit hole.

      Finally women are being heard...finally women are roaring.....

    • #335846
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 14,824

      @fasttense

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #340636
      Bernice Ta
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 173

      I have a balance bar with the Orange Idiot on one side, and Joementia on the other. Which is scarier? I can’t decide. Either way, I know I lose. No money, no health insurance, just started getting SS, which both sides want to get rid of. Yay.

      • #340689
        So Far From Heaven
        Keymaster
        • Total Posts: 6,004

        @berniceta

        They can’t screw with us. I too just started SS and if I’m not mistaken, they can’t change our bennies without ‘an act of Congress’, so it should be pretty secure as is.

        Other than that, who knows?

    • #340717
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 14,824

      Even standard Republican voter suppression won’t help Trump now. Republicans are real good at making it easier for white folks over 65 to vote. They suppress minority and younger voters wherever they can, and the system actually helps older white folks with stable mailing addresses vote.

      Trump’s lost them, dude, over the pandemic. These older white voters, with justification, see Trump’s incompetence on handling the pandemic as an existential threat to them. It’s getting personal now, as far as how most of these voters feel.

      They’ve turned on him in all the polls, which is why Biden is leading anywhere between 6 and 15 points in Florida. Fox News has Biden up by 11 in Pennsylvania, 9 in Michigan, and 8 in Wisconsin. Rasmussen, a poll that always oversamples typically Republican voters, has Biden up by 4 in Ohio.

      That means Biden’s really up by at least 6 and maybe 8 in the state no Republican has ever won an election without. Trump’s going down in flames, and will take down the Republican majority in the Senate with him, all because his behavior scares the fuck out of older white voters, many of whom voted for him in 2016.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

      • #340728
        So Far From Heaven
        Keymaster
        • Total Posts: 6,004

        doesn’t it @ohiobarbarian ??

        If you think the polls are accurate today, that’s fine by me. However, today’s polls are meaningless on election day.

        Ask Hill the Shill.

        It all boils down to whose base shows up the strongest on election day. Everyone else is disgusted with the whole thing and probably won’t vote. So, which candidate has the stronger base in terms of actually going out and voting?

        It ain’t the democrats.

        Seriously. Why else is Orange Face targeting specific fear campaigns in all the swing states? To both energize his base and make the opposition play bullshit and lose the enthusiasm of his base.

        Watch out. This isn’t a typical election. Polls today may be totally useless. Poll driven data has been losing its veracity for over a couple of decades now.

    • #340746
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 14,824

      @sffh This is a totally different level. An order of magnitude different, in fact, by the standards of American politics. Biden’s leading Trump by at least twice as much as Hillary ever did, and sometimes thrice as much. For example, in 2016 Trump carried suburban voters nationally by 4 points. Biden’s leading Trump by 9, a 13 point shift.

      Trump carried white voters over 65 in 2016. He is definitively losing them now, and the only way he can get them back is to address their concerns about the pandemic. As for who votes, I addressed that in my earlier reply. Republican voter suppression techniques are designed to enhance that voter bloc, not suppress it. Their own tactics will backfire this year and work against Trump. This will go down in political history as a delicious irony.

      Trump must competently deal with the pandemic and its economic effects in order to win, and he shows no signs whatsoever of doing that. Unless Trump reverses course, all Biden has to do is avoid total self-destruction. If you want me to give you odds, I’ll say that right now there is a 95% chance Trump will lose in November. I’ll happily match my knowledge, and that of @coldmountaintrail , against this professor with a perfect presidential election prediction record up until now, but it seems to me his streak is about to end in spectacular fashion.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #340793
      lownslow
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 476

      You guys are silly,,,,you still dont get it,,,,,electronic vote machines,,,,,you will get the president tptb want,,,,your vote doesnt count,,,,support tim cavanaugh and mabye greg pallast paper ballots hand counted or you are wasting your time,,,,,,and if this idea isnt deemed important here of all places we are doomed,,,,everytime i mention this,,,,crickets

    • #340801
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 14,824

      @lownslow And you really should remember who was saying there was clear election fraud in the Democratic primaries before you broadbrush us with accusations of silliness.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman

    • #340869
      lownslow
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 476

      @Ohio Barbarian this sure seems like you think your vote counts, which is strange because you are right in that you have called out vote shenanigans my point is nothing will change until we resolve this do you agree?

      Total Posts: 14,246
      He’s basing his prediction on voter turnout in the primaries.
      And voter turnout for Trump, in uncontested primaries, was very high. In Texas, for example, more people voted for Trump than all of the Democrats combined.

      The problem with his theory is that many of the primaries came before the pandemic hit and we entered the Second Great Depression. I go with the polls. Right now, Joe Biden would win at least 350 Electoral College votes. The polls were accurate in 2016, it’s just that Trump won every state he had to where he trailed within the margin of error.

      Now, Biden is leading him by a much greater margin than Hillary ever did. Unless something really, really major happens to turn things around, Trump is toast. Of course, Joe Biden hasn’t been on the debate stage with Trump yet, so it’s possible he’ll screw up so bad he blows it. I don’t see any other way Trump can win right now. Only Joe Biden can save him, as I see it.

      Of course, Trump could call for national health insurance, UBI, and ending the wars, and then he’d win in a landslide, but that doesn’t seem very likely.

      Total Posts: 14,246
      He’s basing his prediction on voter turnout in the primaries.
      And voter turnout for Trump, in uncontested primaries, was very high. In Texas, for example, more people voted for Trump than all of the Democrats combined.

      The problem with his theory is that many of the primaries came before the pandemic hit and we entered the Second Great Depression. I go with the polls. Right now, Joe Biden would win at least 350 Electoral College votes. The polls were accurate in 2016, it’s just that Trump won every state he had to where he trailed within the margin of error.

      Now, Biden is leading him by a much greater margin than Hillary ever did. Unless something really, really major happens to turn things around, Trump is toast. Of course, Joe Biden hasn’t been on the debate stage with Trump yet, so it’s possible he’ll screw up so bad he blows it. I don’t see any other way Trump can win right now. Only Joe Biden can save him, as I see it.

      Of course, Trump could call for national health insurance, UBI, and ending the wars, and then he’d win in a landslide, but that doesn’t seem very likely.

    • #340890
      So Far From Heaven
      Keymaster
      • Total Posts: 6,004

      @ohiobarbarian @lownslow

      First of all, I just don’t trust polls taken in July on what the vote is going to be in November.

      For a lot of reasons, but primarily because I understand the theories behind them fairly well and the results that come from them. So, I think that you are making my claim that it is going to boil down to the actual VOTES in November. Think about what you are saying. Everything went tits up with the pandemic. Yup. Totally agree.

      So how is that going to effect the votes in November? Let’s see. Orange face got a shit load of votes in uncontested primaries. Nobody on the dem side got lots of votes from anyone. You expect more in November? I don’t. Why the difference on who actually got a lot of actual votes? That core ultra right wing republican base of his. You know, the ones that don’t wear face masks and are willing to kill grandma because it’s an infringement on their ‘rights’. They gonna show up in force and that gives Orange Face a 35 percent guaranteed base vote at a minimum in the states that matter.

      So, the older white folk are having second thoughts about Trump?

      They ain’t gonna vote unless they are willing to go through hoops for absentee ballots. So who gives a shit about their vote? I bet less than 25 to 40 percent vote in the general. Half vote for Orange Face because he DRIVES the hard core fanatic people, even in that crowd, and they WILL vote. Biden? He’s as energizing as cold fettuccine. Or limp lettuce. They aren’t nearly as inclined to vote if CORONA is around.

      Here is something for you to consider. Who is most likely to vote under any condition, those with something they want to vote for or those who vote to deny something they don’t want?

      My money would be on those who vote because they want something.

      That is why Biden’s numbers now are pretty much meaningless. We’re only talking about 6 or 7 states that count. And they can swing either way. Who gets the voter out and voting wins the Presidency, regardless of your polls.

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