Recession Risks for the United States in 2019

Homepage | Forums | Main Forums | General Discussion | Recession Risks for the United States in 2019

Viewing 8 reply threads
  • Author
    Posts
    • #3024
      Cold Mountain Trail
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 9,891

      As we reach the end of the year, the economic recovery in the United States is approaching a new record for duration. In June, it will have its tenth birthday, passing the 1990s recovery as the longest one in US history. While recoveries do not die of old age, they do die. The length of this recovery has many looking for recession prospects on the horizon. At the moment, they are not clearly visible.

      The length of the recovery has allowed the unemployment rate to fall to 3.7 percent, the lowest rate in almost 50 years…We hit the 5.0 percent level in September of 2015… the employment rate for prime-age workers (ages 25 to 54) was 2.5 percentage points lower in September of 2015 than it is today. That translates into another 3.2 million people with jobs.  Furthermore, the beneficiaries have been overwhelmingly the most disadvantaged in the labor market. The unemployment rate for African Americans has fallen by 3.3 percentage points in the last three years. For Hispanics, the drop has been almost 2.0 percentage points. For workers with just a high school degree, the drop was 1.7 percentage points, and for workers without a high school degree, the drop was 2.3 percentage points.  The tighter labor market has also meant rising wages for those at the middle and bottom of the income ladder… In aggregate, if a tighter labor market raised wages for the bottom half of the workforce by 1.5 percentage points, this translates into roughly another $50 billion a year in higher wages for this group.

      Everyone keeps looking back to the last recession and trying to identify a bubble that will burst, causing another financial crisis and sinking the economy. Fortunately, there is no serious story here…With no obvious bubbles to burst, this leaves rate hikes from the Fed as the most likely source of the next recession…The Fed has been reasonably cautious to date. Past rate hikes are unlikely to sink the recovery. Hopefully its caution will continue and it will allow workers to get further gains from a tight labor market. But if I had to take a bet as to what would be the cause of the next recession, it would be the Fed. After all, excessive rate hikes by the Fed have been the cause of most prior post-war recessions. They will also be the most likely cause of the next one.

      Recession Risks for the United States in 2019

    • #3062
      elias39
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 5,077

      We’re on our way to hell in a hand-basket IMO. Numbers with extra special crunch. I see misery and fear all around me. And poverty. And schools graduating idjits like trump. I’m more worried about a depression than recession.

    • #3064
      elias39
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 5,077

      or held out in front of candidates like a carrot on a stick.

      “There’s gold in them thar bills”

    • #3094
      Cold Mountain Trail
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 9,891
    • #3128
      mrdmk
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,253

      In Economic Speak, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. Meaning when something does happen, this indicator lets us know how bad the event is.

      The Federal Reserve does strive to keep the U3 unemployment rate between 3 – 6 percent.

      U1 -U6 are for the most part flat. U1 and U2 does show a downward trend. U3 is flat. U5 and U6 is showing an upward trend.

      What this tells me is according to the BLS if you lose your job at this moment, you do have a good chance of getting a new if you react within well within a few months. U3 unemployment rate at this time is almost useless, meaning it is used for cheer leading and media propaganda. U5 and U6 are trending upwards and more people are getting stuck in long-term unemployment.

      https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

      If you cannot dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit WC Fields

    • #3140
      mrdmk
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,253

      Civilian labor force

      From the above chart we can clearly see a upward trend (the blue shaded areas are recessions)

      Civilian labor force participation rate

      From the above chart, since 2001 there has been a downward trend to 2016. 2016 to 2018 it is flat.

      Analysis is working population is increasing, whereas the participation rate is falling. The USA has a shrinking job market or a lot of people are working under the table or not at all.

      Below is the link for the charts above and others:

      https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps_charts.pdf

      If you cannot dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit WC Fields

    • #3174
      Cold Mountain Trail
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 9,891
    • #3208
      jwirr
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,651
    • #3366
      JustSayin
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 535

      to let the banksters go scott free after the grand heist using the race card and then say ” Folks we stole again” and the buck stops here also a merry band of thieves like Eric holder that can severely prosecute the victims using the same race card. Booker might work or Beto or Scamala or even Better Michelle

      ‘voted against their own voice’

      Obama

      Never expect different result by following the previous steps

Viewing 8 reply threads
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.