Sweden: Stockholm weeks away from reaching herd immunity.
April 24, 2020 at 1:02 AM - Views: 121 #307198jerry611Participant
- Total Posts: 944
Its neighbors closed borders, schools, bars and businesses as the coronavirus pandemic swept through Europe, but Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible.
The strategy — aimed at allowing some exposure to the virus in order to build immunity among the general population while protecting high-risk groups like the elderly — has been controversial. Some health experts liken it to playing Russian roulette with public health.
But now, the country’s chief epidemiologist said the strategy appears to be working and that “herd immunity” could be reached in the capital Stockholm in a matter of weeks.
“In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable,” Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC on Tuesday.
Tegnell said sampling and modeling data indicated that 20% of Stockholm’s population is already immune to the virus, and that “in a few weeks’ time we might reach herd immunity and we believe that is why we’re seeing a slow decline in cases, in spite of sampling (testing for the coronavirus) more and more.”
April 24, 2020 at 1:48 AM #307220
April 24, 2020 at 1:54 AM #307222retired liberalParticipant
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So which it it? Can we, or can we not? I’m thinking we can. This virus does not seem to be mutating very much. We got a handle in the AIDS virus, which is unstable, so why not this Cornoavirus also?
If only we had a government that had some empathy for it’s own citizens. We could have been a world leader in controlling this virus, instead of the world’s hot spot.
We are an arrogant species, believing our fantasy based "facts" are better than the other person's fake facts.
If you are wrong, it will be because you are not cynical enough.
Both major political parties are special interest groups enabling each other for power and money, at the expense of the people they no longer properly serve…
Always wear a proper mask when out and about. The life you save could be both yours and mine.
April 24, 2020 at 2:22 AM #307244jerry611Participant
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We don’t know yet how long we retain immunity after defeating this virus. Compared to other coronaviruses, SARS they believe we have immunity up to 10 years. But another form of coronavirus that causes the common cold we only retain immunity for 1-3 years. So it’s too early to tell with this one. But they are hopeful this is more on the longer side because this is more closely related to SARS.
There has been some reports of re-infection, where some have claimed they got it twice or it came back later. But there is inconsistencies in testing. And there is also the fact that some people may not have fully cleared the virus the first go around, and thus it boomerangs back.
Sweden’s bet is that if they can get enough of the population immune while protecting the elderly, then it will eventually make it more difficult for the virus to spread and will burn out faster. While in the rest of Europe and the US, we shut down and put mass quarantines and try to slow the spread and prevent people from getting sick. There are different philosophies at work here. We claim that Sweden is going to have a much higher death toll on their hands. Sweden claims we are going to have the same death toll, just spread out longer. In Sweden’s view it’s pointless to try to stop the virus and we are all going to get infected anyway.
April 24, 2020 at 3:17 AM #307267game meatParticipant
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We claim that Sweden is going to have a much higher death toll on their hands. Sweden claims we are going to have the same death toll, just spread out longer. In Sweden’s view it’s pointless to try to stop the virus and we are all going to get infected anyway.
People are missing the purpose of the lockdowns. The whole point is to spread it out over a longer period of time so there aren’t so many cases at once and hospitals can give the sick care without leaving people to die in the street. That’s literally all there is to it.
It’s not about having the ideal solution; it’s about using the only one available to us. Our healthcare system was designed to maximize profit, operate at maximum efficiency, and account for every nickle, the very opposite model of what would be required in a crisis like this. We just don’t have the reserves required to deal with the influx of patients, and there has been little progress on this front.
Maybe Sweden can, but we couldn’t do it their way even if we wanted to. Resources are already strained with all the lockdown measures everyone is whining about in place.
Look at the hotspots for all the proof you could ever need. They’re still struggling to get supplies and still haven’t expanded testing anywhere near where it should be. I’m not sure what else it could possibly take at this point for this to get through to people.
April 24, 2020 at 2:13 AM #307236David the GnomeParticipant
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The answers to those particular questions yet. One thing I have read is that there are 33 different strains (I believe this came from research in China) – so I wonder if immunity pertains to each individual strain and not the virus as a whole.
Herd immunity is a hell of a gamble. I truly hope it works out for Sweden.
April 24, 2020 at 2:16 AM #307238HamletParticipant
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but didn’t we mock conservastupids after 911 for trading rights for a little safety?
April 24, 2020 at 2:38 AM #307254
April 24, 2020 at 2:44 AM #307255Ohio BarbarianModerator
- Total Posts: 16,201
@stockholmer I would appreciate your observations and thoughts on this. You’re there. I trust your take far more than I do CNBC’s. If you don’t know, then neither do any of us across the pond, that’s for sure.
It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs
Show me a man that gets rich by being a politician, and I'll show you a crook.--Harry Truman
April 24, 2020 at 3:33 AM #307282mrdmkParticipant
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Sweden population is 10,099,265
Denmark has 8,108 cases and has reported 370 deaths, population 5,792,202
Finland has 4,000 cases and has reported 141 deaths, population 5,540,720
Did some math here: Sweden has a 12.6% death rate per infection. Denmark has 4.6% death rate per infection. Finland has 3.5% rate per infection.
You can color me stupid, but I really do not see how Sweden is handling this very well. As a matter of fact Sweden is doing their population a disservice with herd immunity strategy. Right now Sweden has a death rate which three times higher its neighbors.
As a matter of fact I will say this: this article comes from a network that said people must die to save the economy and that is what is happening in Sweden. If that is what Sweden wants to do, they can have it. Do not bring it here and tell me it is a good thing. Herd Immunity my ass.
If you cannot dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit WC Fields
April 24, 2020 at 9:32 AM #307476a little weirdParticipant
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We certainly do not. Our for-profit medical system and lack of funding for public health preparedness pretty much left us with only one choice.
April 24, 2020 at 9:44 AM #307480FloridaProgParticipant
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We would have been better off to go on about our business.
And this whole stay-at-home was to flatten the curve so there wasn’t an abundance of infection hitting all at the same time. It was never meant to prevent people from getting the virus. Over time, the overwhelming majority of people will get the virus, there’s no stopping that. But it’s also true that the overwhelming majority will have no symptoms to mild symptoms, just like we do every year with the flu. Better to be exposed and let your body create the antibodies, just like the thousands upon thousands of germs we all give to each other every year.
April 24, 2020 at 11:52 AM #307495Cold Mountain TrailParticipant
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Nearly 13% of those infected in sweden die according to that article. Sounds like they’re not trying that hard to save them.
The country’s unorthodox response to the coronavirus is popular at home and has won praise in some quarters abroad. But it also has contributed to one of the world’s highest COVID-19 death rates, exceeding that of the United States…
It should be noted, though, that the state epidemiologist’s policy choice has been strongly criticized by independent experts in Sweden. Some 22 of the country’s most prominent professors in infectious diseases and epidemiology published a commentary in Dagens Nyheter calling on Tegnell to resign and appealing to the government to take a different course of action.By mid-March, and with wide community spread, Löfven was forced to take a more active role. Since then, the government has been playing catch-up. From March 29, it prohibited public gatherings of more than 50 people, down from 500, and added sanctions for noncompliance. Then, from April 1, it barred visits to nursing homes, after it had become clear that the virus had hit around half of Stockholm’s facilities for the elderly.
April 24, 2020 at 12:19 PM #307500Jim LaneParticipant
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My reaction to the OP was: The government of Sweden made a controversial decision, and now an employee of the government Sweden predicts that it will turn out well.
I did not find this persuasive.
Your post documents that, unsurprisingly, some experts who aren’t on the government’s payroll are not on board with hailing the government’s choice.
April 25, 2020 at 12:17 AM #307671FloridaProgParticipant
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“Nearly 13% of those infected in sweden die according to that article.”
That’s not what it says. It’s taken confirmed cases (15,322) and divided it into deaths (1,937) to come up with 12.7%. There is no accounting for non-confirmed cases, that is those who have had or currently have the virus but have no symptoms or mild symptoms. That would significantly increase the 15,322 number.
For the sake of discussion, we’ll take the “20% of Stockholm’s population is already immune to the virus” statement and apply it to the full 10 million. That would be 2 million people, 1,937 deaths, or 0.001%. If this C-19 is as contagious as it is claimed, and only 20% being infected? A 20% infection rate by a virus that is so contagious that even being within 6 feet of someone could get you sick seems awfully low.
Now, I can’t say positively the 0.001% is accurate, but I know for sure that 13% of those in Sweden who get C-19 aren’t dying. First of all, that’s common sense. Second of all, they’re only counting confirmed cases and not all cases, of which the majority are those who get it and don’t even know it. They’re not even factored in.
Also, the more that we learn about the numbers coming out of NY, the more it’s becoming clear that the percentage of deaths vs. cases is a small fraction of what’s being reported. Again, they aren’t factoring in those who have it and didn’t know it.
April 24, 2020 at 12:36 PM #307509
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