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Home Topics in Depth Foreign Affairs Syria – The Rationale Behind The Delay Of Idleb's Liberation

  • bemildred (10038 posts)
    Donor

    Syria – The Rationale Behind The Delay Of Idleb's Liberation

     I have seem a couple variations of this, and the South Front analysis on Turkish “strategy” is a good backgrounder. I would just say that the Assadists (Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Russia) do not need to hurry, and there is a persistent pattern of avoiding provocations in favor of keeping on with their war, and of stalling or going to do something else when a big bullshit storm blows up, they seem to wait until it blows over and then proceed. Which is what I expect too. — B

    (No Excerpts)

    http://www.moonofalabama.org/2018/09/syria-the-rationale-behind-the-delay-of-idlebs-liberation.html#more

    eridani, leveymg, Ohio Barbarian and 3 othersiggy, Peace Patriot, N2Doc like this
    It ain't the things you don't know that hurts you, it's the things you know that ain't so.

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  • iggy (3340 posts)
    Donor

    1. There are about 200 UK and US advisors trapped in Idib province

    They had been training the terrorists and find themselves in a dangerous situation. The Russians have offered to help ‘rescue’ the advisors, but the UK and US have refused the ‘help’. It seems we would lose face to have them ‘rescued’ from a situation of their own making.

    “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” Joseph Goebbels
    • bemildred (10038 posts)
      Donor

      2. Turkey won't let them leave?

      Who won’t let them leave? The stuff I have read that sounds most convincing (to me) says various parties including Uncle Sugar & Turkey agree on keeping Idlib out of Assad’s hands still, not giving up yet is the idea. So they are not trapped but on duty.  This is not to say that they are safe. I suppose al Qaeda might not let them leave, but I believe the Russian military and SAA together could help there.

      It ain't the things you don't know that hurts you, it's the things you know that ain't so.
      • iggy (3340 posts)
        Donor

        3. Turkey has refused to let them enter

        The Russians have offered to help, but perhaps classified equipment and IDing the personnel have given the US/UK pause.

        “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” Joseph Goebbels
        • bemildred (10038 posts)
          Donor

          4. OK.

          It ain't the things you don't know that hurts you, it's the things you know that ain't so.
  • Peace Patriot (4811 posts)
    Donor

    5. This is why people call Putin a master of multi-dimensional chess.

    And I think there is truth in that.  But there are many actors in Syria.  Erdogan in Turkey is playing a bit of chess himself.  He is hoping to come out of it with a chunk of Syria, as a buffer into which he can shove the Kurds in Turkey who have been trying to create an independent state within Turkey.  Just steal the land from Syria, in this volatile situation, with the U.S. as its sometime ally.  The Kurds have been playing all sides for quite a while.  Israel wants the Golan Heights which it grabbed control over, illegally, long ago, and has the U.S., the U.K. and Saudi Arabia as its allies.

    The following all have military forces in the Idlib region:  The U.S. (troops on the ground; battleships off shore; USAF in the air; funded and weaponized jihadists).  The U.K. (not sure the force).  Turkey (full bore military).  Saudi Arabia (busy committing genocide in Yemen – funded, weaponized jihadists in Syria).  The Kurds (experienced fighting forces).  Israel (fairly sure they have their own spies and jihadist terrorists in Syria – their military is concentrating on retaining the Golan Heights; they also want to smash Hezbollah, which is supporting the Syrian government, and are spoiling for war with Iran).  Iran (official military support of the Syrian government).  China (not sure of force, may be just diplomats – their interest is in the Ughurs – a Chinese-Islamic sect, recruited by Al Q for fighting in Syria, accused of terrorist acts in China – China wants to make sure they don’t go back to China). Russia (full military in support of the Syrian government).  The Syria‘s official military.

    Who have I forgotten?  All the non-fighters – the civilians, who have been suffering a nutball Islamic/Al Q jihadist tyranny for years now.   Most Syrians hate the jihadists.  President Assad has intense motivation to free his own people in Idlib, as well as to restore Syrian territorial integrity.

    Russia’s motives?  I think, first of all, to stop the spread of Al Q jihadist terrorism, which threatened Russia back in the Chechnya war period, and would threaten Russia again, if given the chance, and to stabilize the Middle East, after years of destabilization by the U.S. and its allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia.  I think Putin is quite sincere in this goal – stability in the ME.  He has other goals – ultimately to link Syria into the new Silk Road initiative (called “Belt and Road”), a very ambitious project started by China (and in which Russia is now a partner, along with 60+ other countries) for building Eurasian infrastructure to facilitate new markets.  Putin may also have wanted to give the Russian military experience, and try out its new weapons systems, if/when the U.S. – which has surrounded Russia with nuclear weapons and troops – decides to attack Russia or other Russian allies (such as Iran).

    The U.S./CIA jihadist war on Syria has largely failed.  Idlib is its last stand – and all these outside forces are poised within and over it, to try to grab something from it to the detriment of the Syrian people.  The U.S. wants to grab the oil, hamper the Silk Road and bully its way into the peace talks.  And it does not surprise me one bit that Russia and Syria are being cautious.  They do NOT want a war with the U.S.  They do not want a wider war.  They have been cautious all along, and, from what I can tell, fairly decent as to civilians and captured jihadis.  They have repeatedly offered the jihadis amnesty and transportation elsewhere each time they have re-taken a new area of Syria.  They have also maintained communication with the U.S. military so as not to accidentally start a nuclear war, or any hot war.

    The U.S. has no legitimacy in Syria whatsoever.  But no one can evict them without extreme risk.  It does seem like a master chess player is what is required for Syria and the Syrian people to get their country back.

    One thing that stands out to me is that Syria is a SECULAR country, and Syrians are very proud of their religious tolerance.  We have inflicted Islamic/Sunni mad men on them!  This goes to the heart of who we say we are – the utter hypocrisy of who we say we are.  And I understand that this is another Putin motive.  He is a member of the Orthodox Russian Church and is concerned about the persecution of Christians in Syria where they have never been persecuted before.

    Funny, that – no?  That devil, that “dictator,” that secret KGB commie, Vladimir Putin, is the one protecting religious tolerance while the U.S. tries to end it.

    – – –

    (Edit: typo.)

    • Ohio Barbarian (12709 posts)
      Moderator

      6. Putin's primary goal is the preservation of the Russian naval base in Syria, its

      only one in the Mediterranean. He knows Assad and his Baathist Party will keep it open. All Syrian religious minorities are better off under the secular Assad than they are under some Wahhabist wack jobs funded by the fucking slave-owning Saudis, and by Americans, of course, though some belong to Al-Qaeda itself.

      In purely imperial diplomatic terms, the American Empire has lost this round in Syria. The most prudent thing to do is to realize the establishment of puppet governments in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria is a failed policy, cut our losses, and get the fuck out of there.

      No man ought to stay poor so another man can get rich. --Newton Knight
      • sadoldgirl (3002 posts)
        Donor

        7. Agreed. but the Empire hot heads will not agree to this. Remember

        Vietnam? Once we were forced to leave, it became suddenly “Peace with Honor”!
        What a joke that was! Then later they blamed the Dems for losing “heart to
        fight”.
        I think Putin wants more than just his naval base. He is interested in a
        strong and relatively powerful Syria as a Russia friendly nation. That is
        the reason why he does not want to see it carved up like Yugoslavia. The usual
        double dealing Erdogan is causing him more problems than he anticipated though.

        • Ohio Barbarian (12709 posts)
          Moderator

          8. I agree Putin wants more; just saying what I think his #1 priority is, which

          makes perfectly rational and logical sense. From a strategic perspective, asking the Russians to give up their base in Syria is like asking the British to give up theirs in Gibraltar.

          I think Erdogan’s kinda batshit crazy, a Muslim zealot who wants to restore the old Ottoman Empire, preferably with himself or a toadie as caliph. I imagine Putin’s thinking the same thing, but figuring out angles on how to use that to Russia’s advantage. Several scenarios spring to mind, especially when pitted against an American Empire with a rudderless foreign policy and an imbecile at the helm.

          Putin’s not so foolish as to squander opportunities. I don’t have to like the SOB in order to respect the SOB’s intelligence.

          No man ought to stay poor so another man can get rich. --Newton Knight
          • sadoldgirl (3002 posts)
            Donor

            9. Don't worry, that imbecile is under control, however is allowed to spit into

            everyone’s face via tweets. PNAC & friends have planned this too long ago to give
            up now. And so have the Israelis, who have us in their pockets.
            The problem with Turkey is not only Erdogan’s idiotic ambitions, but that the US
            and EU can stifle his interest to go East by financial means. If his population
            suffers he is not as secure as he believes.
            You are correct about Putin’s ability to maneuver in difficult situations. Neither
            Russia nor China are acting out of altruism. And unlike the US both are planning way
            ahead and let time work in their favor. Patience and foresight are lacking in the American character.
            The one reason why I support both of these countries’ efforts is because someone has
            to force the US empire to retreat. The madness of eternal conventional wars and the
            regime changes have to be stopped.
            Maduro was elected in Venezuela, yet the OAS is already talking about interference.Who
            directs this? The ” democracy and human rights loving”USA. And sanctions are only a
            type of economic warfare.
            This all has to be stopped, and ,imo, Russia and China are the only ones capable of doing so.
            Thus I welcome their efforts in that direction.

            • Ohio Barbarian (12709 posts)
              Moderator

              10. I understand. I'm in favor of American withdrawal from Empire, for good, solid

              political, economic, financial, environmental, and just plain moral reasons. If the Russians or Chinese ever overextend themselves again, well, they can’t say there was no way they could have foreseen the adverse consequences. All they have to do is to look at their own histories, and if they need a further reminder, our own.

              Let us pull back and be the good guys for a change. Then I can go to Europe and not be embarrassed to show an American passport.

              No man ought to stay poor so another man can get rich. --Newton Knight