The GOP’s main voter bloc is shrinking

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    • #433643
      • Total Posts: 685

      David Faris, Contributing Writer
      Tue, July 6, 2021, 11:39 AM·

      A new deep dive into the 2020 electorate by Pew Research contains mostly bad news for Republicans, whose approaching demographic doom is less racial than it is generational. While it shouldn’t be news to anyone at this point that young voters are a solidly blue voting bloc, the more worrisome developments for the GOP are the unexpectedly elderly nature of the party’s coalition and the unyielding Democratic lean of younger voters as they age. If Pew’s numbers are to be believed, the only solidly Republican age demographic last year was 75 and over, meaning that every time the sun comes up, the GOP’s struggle to win a majority of American voters gets harder.

      Pew’s in-depth study uses validated voter files – matching panelists to a registration database confirming whether or not they turned out – to offer a different, and possibly more accurate, view of the electorate than the exit polls taken on Election Day. Often this new data can challenge narratives that set in stubbornly and immediately after the votes are counted – in 2016, for example, Pew’s research found that Donald Trump won white women by a considerably smaller margin than Election Day surveys indicated, upending one prevailing story about who was most responsible for Hillary Clinton’s stunning loss.

      There were some important differences between exit polls and the new study. For example, Pew found that Trump did better with Latino voters, and worse with Black voters, than exit polls indicated. Still, both sets of numbers showed Trump making modest inroads with these groups, easily the most concerning development for Democrats because of their centrality to the party’s coalition. Exit polls had Trump winning married men by 11 points, while Pew gave this group to Biden by 5. Trump, seemingly paradoxically, lost ground with men and gained some with women, narrowing the overall gender gap. It’s pretty difficult to discern a pattern in these differences, and the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.

      Link to source…

    • #433647
      • Total Posts: 5,343

      After all, Democrats’ deteriorating performance with non-college educated white voters over the past decade offset the ongoing diversification of the electorate. But according to Pew, the rightward march of white voters was halted and marginally reversed by Joe Biden in 2020, who did 4 points better with non-college-educated whites than Clinton. Republicans may have already run headlong into a white ceiling.

      Let’s not forget DemExit:

      Personally, I believe in democracy. I believe that given accurate information and the necessary education to process it, a majority of people will correctly discern their own best interests and vote accordingly. But that’s very different from the situation that we have in America. What we have is a generation raised on the internet and born into an America coming apart in the wake of 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, and now a global pandemic, doing its own research and mostly tuning out official narratives, in conflict with an older generation that mistakes Anderson Cooper for Edward R. Murrow, and doesn’t seem to understand, or even want to understand, that the America they knew is long gone. For the latter, Joe Biden is familiar and comforting. For the former, his nomination is a cruel joke and in many ways a gob of spit in the eye of the people who are going to live with the consequences of his past policies the longest. 70% of voters under 50 voted for Bernie Sanders in the primaries. Sev-en-ty percent. While much has been made on the op-ed pages of Biden’s demographic coalition, that coalition is a mirage. The single greatest predictor of Biden’s support isn’t race or gender or socio-economic status; its age. Old people took their cues from cable news and party leadership, while younger people tuned those voices out. Unfortunately, the elderly are much more reliable voters than the young, and as a result, Biden is on the verge of becoming the party’s nominee. But the nature of Biden’s geriatrically driven victory raises an obvious question: if young people didn’t come out in large numbers to support a candidate they were passionate about, what makes you think they’re going to come out on Election Day to cast a ballot for Joe Biden? For this reason alone, Biden is very likely to lose to Trump, with or without a formal #demexit.

      Democrats seem to live in a fantasy world in which everything we know about human psychology and voter behavior can be suspended with the simple argument, “This candidate is better than (fill in the Republican), so you must vote for them.” If voters behaved that way in real life, Hillary would be the President right now. And Hillary was FDR in a pantsuit compared to Biden.

    • #433655
      • Total Posts: 1,789

      They’ve been posting articles like this since the 90’s.  It is already 2020’s.

      • #433657
        Ohio Barbarian
        • Total Posts: 21,760

        There’s also no mention of why younger voters just don’t bother to vote for Democrats. That’s obvious to me, and I’m in my 60s. Seems to me liberals and Democrats just will not admit to themselves that their candidates and policies aren’t nearly enough to create the kind of enthusiasm that will galvanize voters who aren’t simply in the habit of voting because that’s what they’ve always done.

        I remember papers in the 90s predicting that, by 2010 at the latest there would be a permanent Democratic majority. Right-o.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

        • #433658
          • Total Posts: 1,789

          Exactly.  They are not taking in to account the fact that as these folks get older, they figure out that the Democrats are just bullshitting them to begin with.

          In the end, many of them become part of the non-voting or Independent voter block.  Well, mostly the “non-voting” block.


        • #433726
          • Total Posts: 1,306

          The parties just change and morph and mutate into different things to whatever works. They are not static entities. They are very different than they were 100 years ago. Heck they are different now than they were 20 years ago.

    • #433670
      • Total Posts: 1,673

      The truth is economic and ideological. The biggest Democratic demographic is white professionals, who are essentially Republicans lying to themselves. Papering over their greed and fascism by spouting identity politics. Meanwhile Trump, that “racist”, gained about a third of the hispanic vote and even a serious chunk of the black vote.

      The Democratic strategy of pandering to class militant semi wealthy Is a house of cards, it will collapse as soon as the Republicans find a candidate that espouses right wing economics without looking like an embarrassment. They are already gaining huge chunks of territory in lower offices.

    • #433679
      game meat
      • Total Posts: 1,525

      Democrats always do the best with the youngest voting bloc, and they do the worst with the oldest. This always leads to pundits proclaiming that the gop is on its last legs, that the new generation is more “liberal” or whatever, and that the republicans won’t be able to ever win again by *insert arbitrary date.*

      Even Reagan didn’t win the under 30 group, but they’re all 60+ now, and Republicans are winning those same people today. But when they die, it will be different with gen x/millennials/zoomers because…?

      I figure there are three possibilities:

      1. There is truth to the conventional wisdom that people gravitate to republicans as they get older, and they shift conservative once they age out of being personally affected by abortion and drug laws.
      2. Not as many Democrat voters reach retirement age.
      3. A not insignificant minority of voters support democrats in their 20s and maybe into their 30s but, rather than shifting to Republicans, they gradually become non voters/sporadic voters after realizing that the democrats are worse than useless and are complicit in making everything worse. In contrast, republican voters identify more strongly with their party as they age because the US actually does pass right wing legislation, so they are at least getting something they want. That’s not the case if you’re a lefty voting for democrats.

      I say it’s number three, but I’m admittedly biased.

    • #433686
      Scott Crowder
      • Total Posts: 566

      A: Every election “if only the youth had turned out”
      B: Every election the largest age bloc is the ones voting for the first time.
      That’s a big deal and nrrarly everyone votes that first time.

      Either A or B is true. Guess which answer means the vote counters are lying?

    • #433691
      • Total Posts: 2,587

      Because as long as they protect the oligarchs, the oligarchs take care of them, even if they lose their seats (no-work Board seats, no-work consulting gigs, MSNBC guest pundit spots, etc.). There is no material reward for passing laws protecting the working poor and minorities, so there is never any progress on passing laws protecting the working poor and minorities. Period.

      The opinions and personal views expressed herein are solely those of the author, and should never be taken seriously.

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