Trump's in trouble. If the election were held today, Biden might trounce him with 350 Electoral College votes. With map.

Homepage | Forums | Main Forums | 2020 Elections | President | Trump's in trouble. If the election were held today, Biden might trounce him with 350 Electoral College votes. With map.

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    • #324703
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 21,760

      A CNN poll(link) came out. Biden’s up 55-41 nationally, which is absolutely significant. Plus, Trump’s approval/disapproval rating is 38/57. He has made some colossal fuck ups in the last two weeks. Mr. Law and Order while “inspecting” the basement. Turning the lights of the White House out for the first time since maybe World War II, like he was the miserly rich guy trying to make the Trick-or-Treaters go away. He’s siding with police brutality. He tried to call out the military to  suppress protesters but the Pentagon just refused to cooperate.

      And celebrating a 13% unemployment rate and Wall Street skyrocketing when everybody knows the unemployment rate only dropped by millions of restaurant and other hospitality sector, ie low paid, workers have gone back to work part-time as governors lift lockdowns. At least, everybody who knows anybody who works in those fields in those state that have eased lockdowns knows that. That includes erstwhile Trump supporters. He’s lost some.

      There was another poll finding 80% of Americans, including 78% of independents and 66% or Republicans agreed with the statement, “The United States is out of control.” Krystal Ball talked about that today on Hill Rising, and Saajar Enjeti called Trump and the Republicans a “Ship of Fools” for refusing to do anything more to help working people.

      Factoring in all that, plus the most accessible Real Clear Politics averages and recent polls where possible, here’ where the election stands today:

       

       

      I’ve always said that the best thing about Trump is that he is so easy to hate. Most people don’t like either Trump or Biden, but one must be paying attention to Biden and his history to really hate him. Everyone on JPR pays attention, but you don’t have to pay attention to Trump to hate him. You just have to be unemployed or scared of losing everything and see him on TV.

      I’m not calling the election, but if the unemployment rate is still in double digits in November, that makes it very difficult for Trump to win. All Biden has to do is avoid totally self-destructing, but if any major party candidate is capable of that, it is Joe Biden.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #324706
      HassleCat
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 7,252

      “What is that funny feeling in my anus? It’s been bothering me for a couple years, now. It’s difficult to describe the feeling, kind if like something is moving up & down, in & out. When it first started, it hurt a lot, but I guess I got used to it over time. It seems to coincide with when the president appears on TV and issues an executive order or… Hey! What are you doing back there? Get off my… No! I don’t want to…”

    • #324735
      Snort McDork
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 5,008

      A choice between a racist pig, or a corporate ass-hat.

      “Same as it ever was, Same as it ever was……..”

      I'm Snort McDork and I approved this message.

      "I like Birdy Num-Nums"

      If you come for Nina Turner, Your ish better be airtight like Tupperware" -Rashida Talib

    • #324743
      Jim Lane
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 865

      @ohiobarbarian

      According to their map — link — also based on poll aggregation, the numbers (with yours in parens for comparison) are:

      • Strongly Dem 213 (211)
      • Likely Dem 60 (47)
      • Barely Dem 95 (94)
      • Exactly tied 38 (1)
      • Barely GOP 22 (76)
      • Likely GOP 3 (20)
      • Strongly GOP 107 (89)

      The most notable difference is Texas.  Based a Quinnipiac poll giving Trump a one-point lead and a PPP poll showing them even, the electoral-vote.com algorithm puts Texas with its 38 votes in the tossup category.

      The good news is that, with more Northerners moving to Texas, and more Latinos registering, and other voters (like the famed suburban women) turning against Trump, it seems that this could be the year when Texas is in play.  The bad news is that we seem to have been saying that every four years.

      Here’s a cautiously optimistic view: The Republicans will hold Texas but they’ll have to spend some resources there that won’t be available for places like Wisconsin and North Carolina, candidates to be the tipping-point state that puts the winner over the top.

    • #324745
      GlennDITM
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 50

      To take this poll as anything but a snapshot is way too reactionary. Wait until people start paying attention and Trump eviscerates Biden in a couple of debates and ads. And that disgusting Trump and his easily led supporters will be motivated to go to vote, while the Dems alienated millions by cheating again who will not vote. I have seen this movie before. But the Dems will not care. They will love 4 more years of “AHH! Trump!” fundraising. This poll is like scoring a run in the first inning and claiming victory. I am shocked by how many people put so much weight in this. (Not pointing the finger at you Ohio. I know you are just sharing news.)

      "The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is."- Winston Churchill

      • #324752
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 21,760

        @njock A snapshot is all this is. The trends favor Biden, but there’s five months to go, and these times are volatile. Trump and the Republicans could save themselves by something like UBI, but they won’t.

        OTOH, the Democrats could have guaranteed themselves of a landslide by nominating Sanders, but went all-out to avoid that. Donors come first for both parties.

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #324746
      PADemD
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      • Total Posts: 2,339
    • #324857
      N2Doc
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 8,843

      Trump’s ship is in a trough right now. As we approach the RNC convention it will rise and crest. Biden is at a crest now, will sink back down, rise and fall. Where we end up in early November, who knows?

    • #324991
      tmbarton1961
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 77

      The Big Money interests and Donor classes will win big.

      --tmbarton1961

    • #325005
      Satan
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 5,195

      ..is that Florida will be stolen. Because it always is.

      Of course that would still leave Dementia Joe with 323 and the longshot – but apparently now possible flipping of Texas which could potentially raise his lead to 361.

      Which would be one Hell of a mandate a real leader would do something with. Biden??? Yeah, I doubt it.

      "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable". - John F. Kennedy

      • #325010
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 21,760

        @satan Democrats have never won Florida when they needed it. They have won it a couple of times in recent decades when they didn’t need it, so if Trump’s getting blown out nationally, I suppose the Republicans might shrug and back off the vote-rigging if it doesn’t matter. If it does, FORGEDDABOUDIT.

        If it comes to that, I’ll color Florida pink for exactly the reason you stated.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #325011
      MistaP
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 3,066
      • #325066
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 21,760

        @mistap I said all Joe Biden has to do to win is to avoid total self-destruction, but if there’s anyone capable of doing that it’s Joe Biden. He proved my point in less than a day.

        I’m so glad I really don’t give a fuck which one of these parodies wins in November.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #325346
      RealityRedux
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 663

      What this suggests to me is that the Republicans will have to cheat far more than previously anticipated. Trump will do his part to squash mail-in voting.

      Formally RealityCheck

    • #325388
      3fingerbrown
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 3,711

      Imagine if the democrats ran a candidate that gave a shit about them?

      All governments lie to their citizen's, but only Americans believe theirs.

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