Trying to Clarify Risks Re- Covid vs. the Vaccines

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    • #436857
      snot
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      • Total Posts: 1,379

      Almost no one seems to me to have reported very clearly on the real mortality rates of either Covid or the vaccines, so I did a little research and analysis based on what looked to me like some of the more reliable sources. My conclusion fwiw is that, based on what info we have, which is admittedly spotty, you’re probably at least 100 times more likely to die from Covid than from the vaccines. Here’s how I got there:

      Per a 2021-05-12 Forbes fact-check of a Tucker Carlson interpretation of data from the VAERS database (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2021/05/12/the-truth-behind-tucker-carlsons-claims-about-covid-19-vaccine-deaths-and-the-governments-vaers-database/?sh=30069543a9ad ), if all reported deaths in the US following a Covid vaccine shot are assumed to have been caused by the vaccine, the mortality rate from the shots would be 0.0017%, and if all deaths following diagnosis with Covid are assumed to have been caused by the disease, the mortality rate in the US from Covid is 1.8%.

      (Of course, as Covid skeptics point out, just because a death follows a diagnosis doesn’t prove the disease caused the death; but the same is also true w.r.t. the vaccines: a death following vaccination doesn’t prove the latter caused the former.  So for purposes of this analysis, I’m calling that factor a wash.)

      So based solely on the statistics above, one might conclude that you’re more than a thousand times more likely to die from Covid than from the vaccine; that’s a big gap.

      But as critics of the vaccines correctly point out, the actual death rate from Covid is in fact lower, since many who contract the virus are never diagnosed.

      Per a 2021-02-06 NPR report (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/06/964527835/why-the-pandemic-is-10-times-worse-than-you-think ) on a Columbia U. model, the actual number of people who are newly infected or still infected at any point in time is likely 10 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. If this is correct, it would mean that you’re only > 100 times more likely to die from Covid than from the vaccines, rather than 1,000 times. Per a more recent, 2021-06-23 abcNEWS report (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/us-17-million-undiagnosed-covid-19-cases-early/story?id=78447577 ), a National Institutes of Health study estimated that there were only 4.8 undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case; if my math is correct (always questionable; please let me know if you think I erred!), this would yield a mortality rate of 0.31%, meaning you’re 182 times more likely to die from Covid than from the vaccination.

      Of course, the vaccines could turn out to have longer-term negative effects on health; but so too could Covid.

      PS: Age is another factor complicating some purported analyses. It seems likely to me that the elderly are probably at greater risk from either Covid or the vaccines, so at least until someone shows some basis for assuming that such risk increases with age faster for the vaccines than for Covid, I’m treating that factor as a likely wash as well.

      Destruction is easy; creation is hard, but more interesting.

    • #436860
      Pam2
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 9,845

      Here’s the difference to me- I’ve successfully avoided getting Covid so far, so if I continue doing what I am doing, I think my risk of getting it is low. So why do I want to inject something possibly harmful into my body? There are other ways to avoid getting Covid than the shot.

      I’d be interested in seeing a comparison of side effects between this vax and other vaxes. I’ve never heard of stuff like heart inflammation, Guillan Barre syndrome  etc. with any other vax.

       

    • #436862
      Scott Crowder
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 722

      The issue isn’t about will the vaccine kill me outright. No one who is avoiding the vaccine does so because they think they’ll drop dead straightaway from taking it.

      It’s the unknown long term effects which may outweigh the risks of Covid. Deaths from Covid are extremely low, side effects somewhat higher, but still extremely low. You have no way to calculate the chance that the long term side effects from the vaccine are higher or lower than that nor if they will be worse or not.

      I was disappointed that this wasn’t an actual attempt to clarify the risks regarding the two. If you’d perhaps looked at how many fully vaccinated are getting and dying of the disease vs the unvaccinated rates, it would have actually been helpful. Big Pharma and their corporate whores in the government keep touting that barely anyone fully vaccinated is dying from Covid, yet we keep seeing numbers reported in places like the UK that completely debunk that claim.
      Would have been nice if you’d dug into those numbers, but you obviously fully support vaccination and don’t get it why people aren’t getting vaxxed.

      "The possessions of the rich are stolen property." Pierre-Joseph Proudhon
      “The two greatest obstacles to democracy in the United States are, first, the widespread delusion among the poor that we have a democracy, and second, the chronic terror among the rich, lest we get it.” Edward Dowling
      "The poverty of our century is unlike that of any other. It is not, as poverty was before, the result of natural scarcity, but of a set of priorities imposed upon the rest of the world by the rich." John Berger

      • #437311
        snot
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 1,379

        @Pam2, that many people who are leaning away from vaccination seem to be weighing their risks as if they can avoid ever getting Covid at all, and I agree that if they’re right, they’re better off avoiding the vaccines.

        Given how hard it is to avoid ever catching a cold, however, and given that Covid is more infectious than the common cold and that it can be transmitted even by the vaccinated, my own guess is that if you’re around for very many years, sooner or later you’ll become infected.

        Destruction is easy; creation is hard, but more interesting.

      • #437314
        snot
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 1,379

        @scottcrowder, the long-term risks from Covid are equally unknown.

        Destruction is easy; creation is hard, but more interesting.

    • #436866
      lownslow
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,103

      Yeah, why does the cdc instruct hospitals to refrain from testing vaxed folks for covid unless they are already being admitted ? Refusing to count breakthrough cases,,,,let that sink in and then tell me you trust those evasive bastards to shoot some new shit in your arm

    • #436871
      Hobbit709
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 2,757

      I’ll take my chances with the vaccine rather than risk the demonstrated much higher chance of VOVID.

      I don't waste my time teaching pigs to sing.

    • #436872
      djean111
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 6,995

      iMO we are awash in a sea of disinformation about everything; I doubt whether Covid statistics and numbers are bobbing around in that swamp like a shining little beacon.  Not ranting about it; it is what it is, that’s all.

      But you must feel personally very happy about having gotten the “vaccine”.   Good!   But nothing has been “clarified”.  I am not going to be swayed by analyses on websites or, come to think of it, admonitions to get the shot made by Matt Damon and other performers who are, well, paid to act.  I never understood using performers to shill anything.  It seems odd to  me that people who snigger that supporting Bernie and his ideas is cult behavior –  seem to think I should have my mind made up by a politician or an actor or a musician or a talking head.  Um, WTF?    I am not a “voter outreach” person, either, come to think about it.

      So, I am in the wait and see contingent, although, since I have read here that death by vaccine is some sort of success,  I do feel a bit sorry not to make someone’s day by weirdly proving that very WTF illogical statement.  Besides, I have never had the flue shot, or the flu, so I don’t feel like rolling the dice here based on any bizarre imaginary peer pressure.  At 75, doubties much effort would be put into saving me either way.    I rarely do anything where there is absolutely no do-over.   Can people who have been “vaccinated” still get and/or transmit Covid?  The answer seems to be yes, so I will just keep wearing a mask and staying away from crowds.

      As @hobbit709 so helpfully points out – the only thing that is 100% sure is death.  We all just approach that a little differently, from different frames of reference, from different points of view.

      America is not a country, it's just a business. (Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly)

      Everything I post is just my opinion, and, honestly, I would love to be wrong.

      "black flag" is an inadvertent mash-up of black ops and false flag. . I think it is accurate, and I will keep it. Thanks to those who pointed it out!

    • #436881
      yourout
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 488

      Due to my business requiring me to be in front of many people from different areas of the country and having elevated risks from being a type II and other age related health concerns I got the vaccine.

      For me the odds of covid killing me are far far greater than the vaccine.

    • #436900
      sadoldgirl
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,510

      Well, I got the J&J vaccine, because the carrier had been used

      successfully before. Do I really trust it? No, but it s better imo

      than the mRNA vaccines; these have never been tested on such

      a large scale, nor have they proven on a small scale to have a

      long term effect. The best option is used in China, namely the

      whole attenuated virus, same as is used in rabies for pets. The

      production however takes longer and is more demanding. I

      still think that good masks and a larger distance from other

      people is the best precaution in the long run, although economically

      stifling. Some places in Europe are handing out the special masks

      used in hospitals. Since the US government tries things the cheap

      way as well as gives big Pharma whatever it asks for, we won’t see

      that effort here. Make no mistake though: there will be more

      mutations, and one or two may break through the “barrier” these

      present vaccines create.

    • #436937
      eridani
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 10,976

      What is the PER CAPITA incidence of deaths from COVID vs deaths in the unvaccinated?

      Jesus: Hey, Dad? God: Yes, Son? Jesus: Western civilization followed me home. Can I keep it? God: Certainly not! And put it down this minute--you don't know where it's been! Tom Robbins in Another Roadside Attraction

      • #436947
        ArtfromArk
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 1,628

        and I’m talking about 東京都, the prefecture (state), with more than 14 million residents, official statistics show that as of today, a little less than 4 million residents have received one shot, and around 2 million residents have received 2 shots. That means that the vaccination rate is roughly 42% for at least one shot. Meanwhile, the daily death rate is practically zero (some days it is zero)

        https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/cards/vaccination

        https://stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/cards/deaths-by-death-date

        “There’s a new spirit abroad in the land. The old days of ‘grab and greed’ are on their way out. We’re beginning to think of what we owe the other fellow, not just what we’re compelled to give him. The time’s coming… when we shan’t be able to fill our bellies in comfort while others go hungry, sleep in warm beds while others shiver in the cold.... And God willing, we’ll live to see that day…” Basil Rathbone,"Sherlock Holmes Faces Death" (Universal 1943)

        • #436948
          Hobbit709
          Participant
          • Total Posts: 2,757

          unlike the average American city

          I don't waste my time teaching pigs to sing.

          • #436949
            ArtfromArk
            Participant
            • Total Posts: 1,628

            Of course, Tokyo is also far more congested than the average American city.

             

            So in other words, it doesn’t matter much in Tokyo whether you get a shot or not, what matters more is wearing a mask in crowded places.

             

            “There’s a new spirit abroad in the land. The old days of ‘grab and greed’ are on their way out. We’re beginning to think of what we owe the other fellow, not just what we’re compelled to give him. The time’s coming… when we shan’t be able to fill our bellies in comfort while others go hungry, sleep in warm beds while others shiver in the cold.... And God willing, we’ll live to see that day…” Basil Rathbone,"Sherlock Holmes Faces Death" (Universal 1943)

            • #436958
              retired liberal
              Participant
              • Total Posts: 4,634

              Someone to be ridiculed. A large part of that, we can thank Trump for.
              601,000 dead that are officially counted. Few of those people who died, have been vaccinated. Of those deaths that had been vaccinated, most were front line health care personal.
              Why? Because the viral load itself plays a significant roll in how sick a person gets, vaccinated or not.
              If the majority of people in this country, would have worn masks, maintained distance, when out and about, that would have cut that number of deaths drastically.
              But instead we opened things up way too soon, packing unmasked people into bars, churches, sporting events, wherever people are gathered in close proximity.

              Me? After much reading, I got the John & Johnson vaccine, with no side effects. No sore arm, no feeling lousy for a few days. DNA vaccines are proven to work. mRNA vaccines as noted above, have never been tested on humans on such a large scale. Also the body reacts against the mRNA vaccine itself. That is why they want you to wait 30 minutes after getting the shot.
              The Moderna mRNA has 3 time the active dose that the Pfizer vaccine has, with no increase of protection.
              But whatever, all three vaccines have been proven to keep people out of the hospital and off the ventilators.
              So between getting vaccinated, wearing a mask when in public and staying away from crowed venues, we could have gotten this pandemic under control many months ago. Too many did none of the needed things.
              Another problem is we are being lied to about everything. The COVID pandemic is no exception. So be careful about what you read. Do you just read whatever supports your mind set? Keep in mind the source. Forbes, say, or a reliable, main stream medical sources? If you read enough, after a while a pattern begins to emerge. Capitalists sources want to get back to “normal”, down play the threat. Main stream medical sources, even with hard to wade through medical jargon are better. But even then you have to be skeptical, as their are fake medical web sites pushing their agenda, praising how wonderful Pfizer is, with Moderna bringing a supporting backup. The J&J vaccine is often not even mentioned. Now why is that? Not even when comparing the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines, is the J&J mentioned, pro or con? Except for the blood clot problem in a few women, who had been precious exposed to the COVID-19 virus. That strikes me as propaganda.
              And I haven’t even gotten to the obscene profits of Pfizer and Moderna, from the vaccines…

              We are an arrogant species, believing our fantasy based "facts" are better than the other person's fake facts.
              The older we get, the less "Life in Prison" is a deterrent.
              Don't forget that the S in IoT stands for Security.
              Beware of geeks bearing GIFs.

        • #437310
          snot
          Participant
          • Total Posts: 1,379

          @eridani.  The rates per capita are what I just calculated above, counting in the “capita” just the numbers of people who have been infected (for purposes of calculating the mortality rate from the disease) or the number of people who have been vaccinated (for purposes of calculating the mortality rate from the vaccinations.  If you what you mean is that you want the “capita” to include the total population, infected or not and vaccinated or not, I don’t see how that’s meaningful, since when more people are infected, the mortality rate from the disease relative to total population will inevitably be higher, and ditto re- vaccination.

          Destruction is easy; creation is hard, but more interesting.

    • #436973
      sadoldgirl
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,510

      @retiredliberal:

      Yes, you are right in saying that we are being lied to. There

      is no information to how many people took the test and how

      many of them tested positive. I have run PCRs and it is well

      known that if you run more than 20-25 cycles it becomes

      unreliable. The polymerase is not perfect. We are not told

      how many cycles these Covid tests use. That is only ONE

      point. Out of 320 million 0.6 million died supposedly. How

      old were they? Did they have other problems? Did they wear

      masks and kept distance? Numbers can be used in many

      different ways, and it is necessary to check who supplies

      them and for what purpose.

      • #436980
        retired liberal
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 4,634

        I’m guessing it was not the Johnson & Johnson vaccine because they are not telling us. If it was J&J, you know it would be 24/36 point bold type above the fold in every major newspaper in the country and a “If it Bleeds, it Leads” story on every 6:00 PM and 10:00 PM TV news for a week. But total silence on which vaccine.

        We are an arrogant species, believing our fantasy based "facts" are better than the other person's fake facts.
        The older we get, the less "Life in Prison" is a deterrent.
        Don't forget that the S in IoT stands for Security.
        Beware of geeks bearing GIFs.

    • #436991
      emme
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 311

      I finally got the J&J a few weeks back. The initial covid version  did not worry me in terms of catching it. The majority of deaths were very frail, elderly folks in nursing homes; and seriously ill who people had comorbidities. I don’t, so wasn’t too nervous about it.

      By the time I could get the shot in April, local cases and hospitalizations were dropping rapidly. It looked like we would exit the pandemic without much help from the vaxxes.

      And then in late May, the delta variant showed up in Taney Co MO wastewater. That’s Branson, where tourist season was kicking into maskless high gear. Springfield ended their mask mandate May 27. People who weren’t vaxxed were supposed to continue wearing them. Fat chance. Masks pretty much disappeared in public, despite a vax rate straining to hit a third vaccinated.

      I’m guessing most have seen the news stories and know what is happening here. Springfield hospital spox and the mayor have been on national news.  The variant is more contagious and hitting more people harder at younger ages. Hospitals now have more patients, starting last week, than at any previous point in the pandemic. Decided it was  time to get the J&J. I wasn’t fully comfortable with the mRNA shots; I also wanted immunity in two weeks, not five or six given what was happening here.

      Very minor reaction; couple hours of fever/chills that night, a slight headache the next day. I’ve had a worse reaction to a flu shot.

       

    • #437071
      David the Gnome
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 3,344

      I got the J & J shot, but do I trust the data reported?  Not really.  Way too damn easy to make statistics fit an agenda.  I haven’t died yet, or been hospitalized, so thus far I consider it a success.

      What is fucked up is that these vaccines have already made multiple billionaires in the U.S. – and they are eventually going to convince their pawns IN Congress and the CDC to support yearly shots.

      That’s a fuck ton of money.  It is… simply put, the profit motive – that is what makes me question everything to do with the virus, treatments and cures.  They (politicians, CDC and NIH officials, big pharma etc) have already proven they can lie about whatever they want whenever they want without consequence.

      So what is the truth?  Hell if I know.  Wear a mask, don’t wear a mask, snort that hydroxy shit, or Clorox spray maybe.  Or just stand in the sun.  Wear a mask or a full hazmat suit, or run around naked.

      Does it really matter when our leaders and reporters have 0 credibility?  If they tell us tomorrow that aliens are invading – I will doubt it even if I see aliens on my lawn with laser weapons.

      That is where we are.  Led and misled, informed and misinformed by some of the most pathwtic, greedy and cowardly sociopaths on earth.

      So… generally?  Why would I believe anything these assholes say?

    • #437205
      eridani
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 10,976

      Any data reported should be in terms of PER CAPITA rates.

      Jesus: Hey, Dad? God: Yes, Son? Jesus: Western civilization followed me home. Can I keep it? God: Certainly not! And put it down this minute--you don't know where it's been! Tom Robbins in Another Roadside Attraction

      • #437773
        ArtfromArk
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 1,628

        OK, PER CAPITA rates in Tokyo, that has the same vax rate as Arkansas, are 0.000064 for getting infected, and 0.00000014 for dying of Covid-19.

        “There’s a new spirit abroad in the land. The old days of ‘grab and greed’ are on their way out. We’re beginning to think of what we owe the other fellow, not just what we’re compelled to give him. The time’s coming… when we shan’t be able to fill our bellies in comfort while others go hungry, sleep in warm beds while others shiver in the cold.... And God willing, we’ll live to see that day…” Basil Rathbone,"Sherlock Holmes Faces Death" (Universal 1943)

    • #437764
      snot
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,379

      or maybe I’m not the one you’re talking to, @eridani.  Again, for everyone’s clarification:

      If by “per capita” you mean the total population (of a country, or whatever): If there are 100,000 people in the world, and 200 of them have Covid, the mortality per that capita will probably be ca. 3.6 people.
      If you have 100,000 people, and 50,000 of them have Covid, based on what we know so far, the mortality rate will probably be about 1.8% of 50,000, or 900 people.
      If you have 100,000 people, and 200 of them are vaccinated, the mortality per capita will probably be ca. zero (o.036%).
      If 50,000 of them are vaccinated, the mortality rate will probably be about 9 people.

      So in a population of 100,000, if you want to use the total population as your “capita” and only 200 of them have Covid but 50,000 are vaccinated, you’d have 3.6 people die from the disease and 9 people die from the vaccine – which makes the vaccine look pretty dangerous.  But if 50,000 have the disease and only 200 are vaccinated, you’d have 900 people die from the disease and 0.036 people die from the vaccine, which makes the disease look much more dangerous; i.e., your conclusions depend entirely on the levels of disease and vaccination rather than the actual efficacy of either of them in killing people who have them.

      So again, the “capitas” that matter are the subsets of people who have actually caught the disease or actually had the vaccine.

      Destruction is easy; creation is hard, but more interesting.

    • #437835
      Babel 17
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 5,794

      Best case* scenario for the majority of us being that COVID-19 enters our body, and gets wiped out before it can really get started replicating, and traveling all through our body?

      Less good, but still acceptable, being that it takes a bit longer for our bodies to neutralize the virus, so we feel a bit “off” for a short period of time?

      And with the Delta variant, it’s like the above, but with fewer people being in the best case scenario, more feeling a bit off, and quite a few feeling quite off, but not sick enough to need a hospital bed?

      I’m curious as to the immunity to the Delta variant that is held by people who’ve been vaccinated, but were also exposed to lots of people infected with the other variants, and thus had their bodies fight them off. As I belong to a gym that hosts members ranging in age from their teens to their eighties, living across several towns/villages, in an area near New York City, and with lots of vaccine/mask skeptics, I have to figure I’ve been exposed to everything, even though I wore a mask amidst a group that had lots of people wearing them as chin diapers. I also got both shots of the Pfizer vaccine.

      *Best-best case being never getting exposed?

       

       

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