Ukraine: gas pipelines and talk of war – the Zelensky regime in 2022

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    • #465817
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 22,626

      (Marxist.com) Tensions from the build-up of military forces on the Ukraine-Russia border have made their yearly return at the beginning of 2022, although they have recently been overshadowed by events in Kazakhstan. Even until Kazakhstan supplanted the sabre-rattling on the news, there was little sign that anyone really believed something on the scale of war would happen. The people in Ukraine and Russia have grown weary of the political poker game being played with their futures. Now only the well-paid media shills speak seriously about war.

      For over a month, Washington has been insisting that reports about the amassing of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border mean that Putin is preparing to invade. On this occasion, it was reported that around 100,000 troops had been deployed within 200-400km of the Russian border. Ever since the signing of the Minsk-2 agreement, which signaled the end of the most heated period of the Donbas civil war, threats of reescalation have resurfaced on an approximately annual basis.

      Whilst it is true that Russia has maneuvered troops around the Ukrainian border, there are many reasons why a full-scale invasion would be strategically disastrous from a Russian point of view. Before the Russian annexation of Crimea, Russia already had a military base on the peninsula, the majority of the population of which is Russian. The population of the rest of Ukraine is more than 15 times that of Crimea. While Russia would be able to invade Ukraine from a military point of view, it would be much more difficult to hold it.

      For Putin, sabre-rattling at the border is convenient from the point of view of bolstering popular support at home, but an actual full-scale invasion could quickly backfire. Rather, these maneuvers represent a Russian leverage tactic in its negotiations with the US – as they have for the last five years. Of the three parties – Washington, Moscow and Kiev – the Kiev government has the least say of the three. While shelling has increased along the Donbas front lines, an invasion is very unlikely at this time.

      Full article here

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #465830
      jbnw
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 7,432

      The majority of the population in Crimea before Maidan was not Russian. They were Ukrainian, but spoke Russian and may have had Russian ties.

      Even articles like this can’t get this basic fact right.

    • #465864
      soryang
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,838

      CIA-trained Ukrainian paramilitaries may take central role if Russia invades
      Zach Dorfman
      Zach Dorfman·National Security Correspondent
      Thu, January 13, 2022, 1:52 PM·7 min read
      The CIA is overseeing a secret intensive training program in the U.S. for elite Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel, according to five former intelligence and national security officials familiar with the initiative. The program, which started in 2015, is based at an undisclosed facility in the Southern U.S., according to some of those officials.

      This report above was from yahoo.com. I’m too inept to post the lengthy link, maybe someone else can. My view of preparations like this is that they reflect anticipation of armed conflict to some degree. These specially trained “elite” forces could be used elsewhere as well. Even where it seems unwise for either side to engage in armed conflict, sometimes the conflict can be precipitated by a covert plan, by people who disagree and think war is a good idea. Those covert actions about which most people generally never even become aware. I saw some bs commentary over at SV from one of the defense war contractor oriented publications that suggested “Russia needed a bloody nose.” I’m pretty sure I heard similar language from McMaster during the Trump administration about North Korea. Fortunately it didn’t come to pass like it did in June 1950. At that time, Japanese trained generals, headed the newly formed ROK Army and had made repeated attacks across the 38th parallel for about a year before the North Koreans decided to put an end to it. At the time, no one in the US knew who these ROK generals were or what they did. The refrain by conventional historians is that North Korea would have attacked anyway and that discussion of such matters is revisionist history.

      I find it somewhat ironic under the circumstances where the CIA is training Ukrainian elite forces, that they are allegedly only for “intelligence” purposes. The coincidental widespread reporting that it is Russia who is planning a “false flag” attack seems convenient, at the very least. it’s all part of a strategy of tension.

      • #466718
        jbnw
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 7,432

        https://www.rt.com/russia/546554-donbas-false-flag-ukraine/

        Ukrainian commandos trained by Britain are planning a “series of terrorist attacks” in the Donbass to use as cover for a false flag operation, an official from the unrecognised, so-called, Donetsk People’s Republic has alleged.

        Local Militia spokesman Eduard Basurin said on Wednesday that Kiev will stage a provocation to accuse Russia of invading the country. He added that he believed neo-Nazi ‘Right Sector’ militants were also operating in the area. However, he provided no evidence to back up the allegations.

        Basurin, however, insisted that he had “reliable information” suggesting six groups of saboteurs from the 8th Special Purpose Regiment of Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) had been trained by specialists from the UK and deployed near the line of contact. Their targets would allegedly include gas and water supply as well as power stations.

        The purpose of their supposed provocation is to accuse Russia of ‘false flag’ attacks to prepare “aggression” against Ukraine, and to create panic among the local residents, he added.


        @soryang

    • #466638
      Earthartist
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,733

      https://alawata-rebellion.blogspot.com

      I think this is so scary I know I keep saying this but god when are Americans going to put a stop to this garbage!  This will not stay in Ukraine I fear. jbnw I hope you can get your family out if there is any way, I or we can help please let us know!

      Earthartist

      • #466720
        jbnw
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 7,432

        @enthusiast I really wish that like last March and April, this just winds down.

        What she’d really, really like is for the Ukrainian government to take care of its people. The standard of living continues to decline after the Maidan revolution and ongoing civil war.

        Maybe if the US and UK would send billions in economic aid instead of weapons, it’d be more meaningful to the citizens of Ukraine.

        And we are working on where and when we can go – the US does not make legal immigration easy or inexpensive.

        And as we consider healthcare costs, education costs and crime in the US, we’re not sure which is the country we prefer.


        @earthartist

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