Why a Coup Is Unlikely in Venezuela

Homepage | Forums | Topics In Depth | Foreign Affairs | Why a Coup Is Unlikely in Venezuela

Viewing 5 reply threads
  • Author
    Posts
    • #33232
      Ohio Barbarian
      Moderator
      • Total Posts: 19,954

      This is an excellent analysis of the situation in Venezuela from, believe it or not, The New Republic. Credit where credit’s due–I first saw it on DU. Some new poster. Wonder how long he’ll last Over There, since the article bashes the Great Madeline Albright hard. Anyway, it’s about a 15 minute read, but IMHO well worth your time. I knew nothing about whom the author calls the power behind Maduro’s throne, and that gave me a valuable new perspective. Anyway, my favorite four paragraphs:

      (snip)

      In early 1989, the U.S.- backed neoliberal government of Carlos Andrés Pérez, or CAP as he was known, ordered out Army troops to shoot demonstrators who took to the streets against an IMF austerity plan. Hundreds or even thousands of people were slaughtered, with the exact number proving impossible to determine since many were dumped in clandestine graves.

      (snip)

      But while Maduro could hardly be called well-liked, Guaidó and the U.S.-dominated opposition are widely reviled and rejected. Very few Venezuelans want to go back to 1992, when the Army killed so many protestors, or to 1998, the year before Chavez was elected. Those who do are often members of the wealthy old order. Fittingly, one of the main opposition points is George Washington Plaza, a rich neighborhood sandwiched between the barrios of El Paraiso and La Vega.

      (snip)

      Maduro keeps a close eye on the military. Or more specifically, Diosdado Cabello keeps a close eye on the military, and everything else in Venezuela. Cabello is the most powerful person in Venezuela and the power behind Maduro’s throne. A military official, he and Chavez were close at least since the failed 1992 coup attempt against CAP. I was told by multiple (Venezuelan) sources that Chavez picked the hapless Maduro to be vice president only because he was wary of choosing the cagey, brilliant Cabello to be second-in-command.

      (snip)

      That leaves a U.S. invasion as the only practical option to get rid of Maduro. Sure, Bolton, Abrams, Rubio, and other right-wing politicians—some like Rubio who receive lavish campaign contributions from pro-coup interests—are all for war, but they’re not going to die fighting in the streets of Caracas. Well-placed sources have told me that a majority of senior Pentagon and intelligence officials oppose a U.S. invasion, recognizing that it would be folly.

      (click here for full story)

      I was completely unaware of the existence of this Cabello character, but the article bears out many things I have long suspected–that the Maduro government would have screwed up the Venezuelan economy at least somewhat on its own, but American sanctions have made things far worse.

      That the Venezuelan emigres in the United States wailing about how bad things are are the same wealthy people who benefited for generations off of being toadies for American imperialism.

      That Guaido or Guido or whatever his name is is nothing but a tool.

      That most Venezuelans, while unhappy with Maduro and the current situation, would rather put up with him than go back to the Bad Old Days of puppet regimes sucking up to American interests.

      That the Pentagon thinks invading Venezuela is a Very Bad Idea, because it is.

      In short, Bernie Sanders and the United Nations are right: Venezuela does need to have free and fair elections. I’ll go one step further: All sanctions should be lifted. Let the Venezuelan people, not a bunch of greedy, vicious emigres or American neocons, determine their own destiny.

      It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

      You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #33281
      KenTankerous
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,173

      This is good stuff, thanks Ohio.

      So you could stand to visit DU? Your stomach is stronger than mine.

      "If we define an American fascist as one who in case of conflict puts money and power ahead of human beings, then there are undoubtedly several million fascists in the United States."
      - Henry A. Wallace
      (FDR's Vice President until he was forced out by the corrupt forces of obscene wealth.)

      • #33298
        rachaelseven
        Participant
        • Total Posts: 30

        Deleted. Posted under wrong comment, sorry.

      • #33329
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 19,954

        Sometimes I check on their Latest section and find some interesting stuff. I can only stand their Greatest when I know something’s happened that will make their heads explode, like when Bernie declared.

        Schadenfreude, what can I say?

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #33300
      rachaelseven
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 30

      They just had “free and fair elections” and Maduro won. That’s what started this whole nonsense. Jimmy Carter’s election monitoring non-profit says that Venezuela has some of the cleanest elections in the world, well better than the ones we have here. International observers also validated the most recent election. Some of the opposition boycotted the election, in an attempt to de-legitimize the election, but that was their choice and the election does not fail to be “free and fair” because some people decided to stay home. Maduro won a higher percentage of the voters than Trump did and a greater percentage of the eligible voters than Trump did too. So unless you think that maybe Russia or China should come here and demand we hold new elections under threat of economic sanction and force, there is simply no justification for what we are doing in Venezuela.  Besides, even if they hold a new election, Maduro would just win again. He’s not the most popular politician ever, but the opposition parties that align with US interests are reviled. Venezuelans understand colonialism and want no part of it.

      • #33328
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 19,954

        There were legitimate questions raised about these last elections, however, they don’t carry much weight with me because the opposition boycotted them and then cried foul.

        I think the best American policy to Venezuela is to simply stop fucking with them and lift the sanctions. All of the sanctions. Let Maduro and Cabello stand or fall on their own. There would be more elections in just a couple more years, anyway, since Maduro hasn’t declared himself President-for-Life or Supreme Non-Orange Being or anything.

        I wasn’t actually calling for elections first, and should have been more clear. If Bernie thinks they should happen first, and we don’t know that, then I disagree with him here. I’m sure most of the world thinks the sanctions are wrong. In some ways, they’re an embargo, which is an act of war. We shouldn’t be doing this.

        Bernie’s flinching some here, but at least he’s holding up on the no military intervention thing, which is more than I can say for most of the other Democratic presidential candidates.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #33819
      sadoldgirl
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 1,207

      As far as I read a legal advisor to the UN declared sanctions

      an act of war, but, as we all know, that has never mattered

      to the US.(See M. Albright’s opinion)

      The interesting part is that the oil we want is not directly

      under the VZ coastline. It is farther out and covers the area

      stretching from Brazil over Guyana to VZ. I don’t know

      anything about the Guyana government, but it asked

      Shell or Exxon to explore, which was interfered with by

      VZ.There is a court case about this in front of the UN.

      • #33979
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 19,954

        That stems from a territorial dispute that goes back to the days of Guyana being part of the British Empire. Venezuela’s always claimed a slice of the former British Guiana, and the latter has always claimed a slice of northeastern Venezuela.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #34364
      eridani
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 8,410

      http://inthesetimes.com/article/21785/venezuela-guaido-maduro-lima-group-pence-trump-coup-chavista-opposition

      So when opposition backbencher Juan Guaidó declared himself interim president of Venezuela on January 23, he and his co-conspirators thought the military would quickly fragment before eventually falling in line behind the self-proclaimed president. Things didn’t work that way: Aside from a handful of soldiers and the U.S. military attaché, the Venezuelan armed forces remained solidly behind Nicolás Maduro. And despite large demonstrations both for and against the government, there have been no signs of sustained, mass resistance in the streets in favor of the coup either.

      Why? In part because the frustration many poor Venezuelans feel today is just that: frustration. They are fed up with the economic crisis, and many place at least a share of the blame on Maduro. But as in the past, most don’t see frustration as justifying undemocratic regime change, much less foreign intervention—which the majority of Venezuelans oppose. What’s more, wanting the economy to improve has not led many to identify with opposition parties that still represent the most elite sectors of Venezuelan society and have offered no credible solutions to the economic crisis.
      But if much has changed, much has also stayed the same: Unable to believe that the poor might hold such a nuanced position, the opposition has again overplayed its hand and bet it all on yet another failed coup. February 23 marked one month since Guaidó’s self-coronation, and also the expiration of the 30-day period during which any interim president must hold new elections. According to even the opposition’s contrived reading of the Venezuelan Constitution, since Guaidó never called those elections, he has no remaining claim to the presidency. And so it was that on February 23, Guaidó resorted to increasingly desperate measures, attempting to provoke a crisis by forcing deliveries of US-provided “humanitarian aid” across the border.

      It’s not difficult to debunk this false humanitarianism. The United Nations refused to participate in what it deemed “politicized” aid shipments, and the Red Cross denounced the border charade as “not humanitarian aid”—and rebuked the unauthorized use of Red Cross insignia by opposition forces. Given that Contra war criminal Elliott Abrams is now in charge of U.S. policy in Venezuela, it’s worth recalling that U.S.-backed Contras used the Red Cross insignia toward similar ends in Nicaragua.

      Jesus: Hey, Dad? God: Yes, Son? Jesus: Western civilization followed me home. Can I keep it? God: Certainly not! And put it down this minute--you don't know where it's been! Tom Robbins in Another Roadside Attraction

      • #34427
        Ohio Barbarian
        Moderator
        • Total Posts: 19,954

         Unable to believe that the poor might hold such a nuanced position, the opposition has again overplayed its hand and bet it all on yet another failed coup. 

        That is no surprise. The arrogance and racism of the Venezuelan upper middle class and rich, who tend to have more European ancestry than the mestizos like Chavez and Maduro they so detest, led them to make a false presupposition; namely that the poor, especially the indios, are so stupid they can be easily manipulated.

        It’s not so different from Donald Trump demanding that Barack Obama hand over his Harvard transcripts because there’s just no way he could be at the top of his class because, you know, he’s black. Never mind that Trump has gone to great lengths to hide his own because he is such a fucking moron.

        Just like the American neocons naming a former technology huckster as President of Venezuela and then expecting most Venezuelans to just salute their ordained Prez once again proved their own stupidity and arrogance.

        It is better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.--Eugene Debs

        You can jail a revolutionary, but you can't jail the revolution.--Fred Hampton

    • #35236
      RealityRedux
      Participant
      • Total Posts: 663

      In a brief glance at 30 years in the history of US intervention against Venezuela, it’s easy to recognize our NWO heel on the throats of a country (and others) who doesn’t bow down to the King.

       

      https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/10112

      A comparative historical approach highlights the different policies, contexts and outcomes of imperial policies during two distinct Presidential periods: the ascendancy of neo-liberal client regimes (Perez and Caldera) of the late 1980’s to 1998; and the rise and consolidation of a nationalist populist government under President Chavez (1999-2012). [1]

      During the 1980’s and 1990’s, US successes in securing policies favorable to US economic and foreign policy interests under client rulers fixed, in the mind of Washington, the optimal and only acceptable model and criteria for responding (negatively) to the subsequent Chavez nationalist government. [2]

      US policy toward Venezuela in the 1990’s and its successes were part and parcel of a general embrace of neo-liberal electoral regimes in Latin America. Washington and its allies in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank (WB) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) promoted and supported regimes throughout Latin America, which privatized and de-nationalized over five thousand public enterprises in the most lucrative economic sectors. [3] These quasi-public monopolies included natural resources, energy, finance, trade, transport and telecommunications. Neo-liberal client regimes reversed 50 years of economic and social policy, concentrated wealth, deregulated the economy, and laid the basis for a profound crisis, which ultimately discredited neo-liberalism. This led to continent-wide popular uprisings resulting in regime changes and the ruse if nationalist populist governments.

      The historical-comparative approach allows us to analyze Washington’s response to the rise and demise of its neo-liberal clients and the subsequent ascendency of populist-nationalism and how regional patterns and changes influence the capacity of an imperial power to intervene and attempt to re-establish its dominance.

      Formally RealityCheck

Viewing 5 reply threads
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.